{"id":136641,"date":"2018-11-05T06:59:05","date_gmt":"2018-11-05T11:59:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=136641"},"modified":"2018-11-05T06:55:42","modified_gmt":"2018-11-05T11:55:42","slug":"the-trade-week-ahead-aud-set-ups","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/11\/the-trade-week-ahead-aud-set-ups\/","title":{"rendered":"The Trade Week Ahead \u2013 AUD Set Ups"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-134450423\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">November 5, 2018<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com<\/strong><\/p>\n<div><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"_dytid_4668\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KTgtnEHZxCI?ecver=2\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p>A lot of excitement around movements in the AUD at the end of last Friday and over the weekend. It looks interesting and appears to be a technical movement brought on by the trade balance on Thursday. I remain strong in the view the USD come December 2019 will be higher still, but cannot ignore short-term opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>The technical \u2013 AUD breakouts<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 AUDUSD \u2013 Has tested this downtrend channel several times in the past year but has never closed above it. Friday finally saw a break and close above the trendline \u2013 the risk is the Midterms and the CNH fixing but it\u2019s an interesting development.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-17924\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/TWH1-550x270.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/TWH1-550x270.png 550w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/TWH1.png 793w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"270\" \/><br \/>\n\u2022 EURAUD \u2013 Broke below the 200-day moving average. EUR has eased off in recent weeks as periphery states have produced weak economic data while Australia\u2019s trade balance boomed. Again the risk here is the Midterms.<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-17925\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/THW2-550x354.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/THW2-550x354.png 550w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/THW2.png 660w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"354\" \/><br \/>\n\u2022 AUDCAD \u2013 Also broke out, as oil moderated. This cross is risky: oil, the midterm and EM all shift AUDCAD around and swiftly \u2013 stops are a must.<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-17926\" src=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/THW3-550x340.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/THW3-550x340.png 550w, https:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/THW3.png 681w\" alt=\"\" width=\"550\" height=\"340\" \/><br \/>\nWill be interesting to see if these break are more structural, I haven\u2019t seen enough economic data yet that would confirm this which is why the RBA\u2019s outlook is key.<\/p>\n<p>The Economics<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 There will be no move from Martin Place on Melbourne Cup day however there is a sense it could \u2018set up\u2019 it\u2019s views of 2019 and 2020 on Tuesday as after the December meeting the RBA is on its summer break until the first Tuesday of February, which has a very large timeframe considering Asia (especially China) tends to change its policy during this time.<\/p><div id=\"inves-3554403185\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>\u2022 The 5 keys to 2019 and 2020<\/p>\n<p>o Funding \u2013 the cost of capital is eating into residential housing, personal lending and the consumption of credit. The RBA will be aware that further increases in global cash markets will come home to roost in Australia which is likely to put pressure on rate calls the downside. AUD weakener<\/p>\n<p>o House prices \u2013 a lower wealth effect\u2019 will filtering into a growth figures. Will this lead to macro-prudential tweaks that were originally brought into curb housing market in 2019 and 2020?<\/p>\n<p>o Inflation \u2013 16 consecutive and counting below its target 2% to 3% band. This should create a scenario where cuts are discussed, yet is maintaining a slight hike stance.<\/p>\n<p>o Employment \u2013 booming part of the economy. However, the RBA still sees slack as being a thorn in the side of wage growth, part of its charter is to support employment which it can\u2019t do as employment growth strong \u2013 tough one.<\/p>\n<p>o GDP, can private investment remain an addition to GDP or will it slide back to a subtraction in 2019? This is a China question. Watch the CNY. And, will consumption the largest contributor to GDP slide as wealth declines and wage growth remains anaemic? The RBA clearly thinks not its forecasted GDP to hold at 3.25% come December 2019.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Article By <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fpmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>FPMarkets.com<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com A lot of excitement around movements in the AUD at the end of last Friday and over the weekend. It looks interesting and appears to be a technical movement brought on by the trade balance on Thursday. I remain strong in the view the USD come December 2019 will be higher [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136641","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136641","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=136641"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136641\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":136642,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136641\/revisions\/136642"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=136641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=136641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=136641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}