{"id":135280,"date":"2018-10-11T07:20:22","date_gmt":"2018-10-11T11:20:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=135280"},"modified":"2018-10-11T06:39:22","modified_gmt":"2018-10-11T10:39:22","slug":"eurusd-euro-rising-against-the-dollar-with-sharp-pullbacks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/10\/eurusd-euro-rising-against-the-dollar-with-sharp-pullbacks\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD: euro rising against the dollar with sharp pullbacks"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-691006419\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">October 11, 2018<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p><strong><em>Previous:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday the 10<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of October, trading on the euro closed up. After a drop to 1.1480, the pair recovered to 1.1545. There are several potential factors behind this reversal:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>A sharp drop in US10Y bond yields and the US dollar index. US10Y bond yields dropped from 3.24% to 3.16%. In Asia, they dropped further to 3.14%.<\/li>\n<li>The decline of the US stock market. Investors have been selling shares across all industries as interest rate hikes from the US Fed make bonds attractive when the stock market is overheated.<\/li>\n<li>The Brexit deal is about 80 \u2013 85% complete and could be finalised by Wednesday the 17<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of October. This is according to chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier. The pound is rising across the board. The EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs are moving in the same direction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><em>Day\u2019s news (GMT+3):<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>09:45 France: CPI (Sep).<\/li>\n<li>14:20 OPEC monthly report.<\/li>\n<li>14:30 Eurozone: ECB monetary policy meeting accounts.<\/li>\n<li>15:30 Canada: new housing price index (Aug).<\/li>\n<li>15:30 US: CPI (Sep), initial jobless claims (5 Oct).<\/li>\n<li>18:00 US: EIA crude oil stocks change.<\/li>\n<li>21:00 US: Federal budget balance (Sep).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/data\/media\/cms\/images\/11.10.18_EURUSD_H1_5bbefffaf100e.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Current situation:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Above I\u2019ve laready listed the potential factors behind the euro\u2019s rise. The rate rose to the 90<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree yesterday, before pushing further to the 112<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0today. As far as I see it, the 112 \u2013 135 degree range is a reversal zone, but I didn\u2019t manage to open a short position from 1.1565 in time. We\u2019ll have to wait and see how the situation develops.<\/p><div id=\"inves-743443626\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Oil prices collapsed yesterday, which took its toll on commodity currencies. The oil market faded to the background, however, following the decline in US bond yields. Speculators may return to it now, having remembered yesterday\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n<p>Our pair fell from a high of 1.1572 to 1.1548. Sellers are holding the rate up at the trend line drawn from 1.1432. On the current hour, this line runs through 1.1530. Taking into account the 3 consecutive higher highs on the AO indicator, it\u2019s possible that trend line will be broken.<\/p>\n<p>If the rate makes it to 1.1548, sellers will have a head and shoulders model within their sights. At this point it won\u2019t matter so much whether or not it\u2019s a true H&amp;S formation. The real question is how many traders will spot the formation and how much money they\u2019ll put on it. If the model forms, the rate will return to 1.1475. So, we\u2019ve looked at the potential factors for a drop; now let\u2019s look at the growth factors.<\/p>\n<p>If the rate rebounds from the trend line, then against the backdrop of a broadly weaker dollar and a decline in US10Y bond yields, the bulls could test the 135<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree. From there we\u2019ll head south again, since there\u2019s a bearish divergence forming between the rate and the AO indicator.<\/p>\n<p>The euro is rising against the dollar amid some sharp pullbacks. It\u2019s as if markets are intentionally delaying buyers to make them believe in this new rally and to activate short limit orders on the euro. The current reversal has been confirmed on the daily timeframe. Now we need to test sellers\u2019 intentions with a drop. If bearish activity is low, then following the correction, the rate will move up to 1.1650 and beyond.<\/p>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\">Source: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/hidden_copyright\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">EURUSD: euro rising against the dollar with sharp pullbacks<\/a>&#8220;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari Previous: On Wednesday the 10th\u00a0of October, trading on the euro closed up. After a drop to 1.1480, the pair recovered to 1.1545. There are several potential factors behind this reversal: A sharp drop in US10Y bond yields and the US dollar index. US10Y bond yields dropped from 3.24% to 3.16%. In [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-135280","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135280","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=135280"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135280\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":135281,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135280\/revisions\/135281"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=135280"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=135280"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=135280"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}