{"id":130390,"date":"2018-07-19T14:38:16","date_gmt":"2018-07-19T18:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=130390"},"modified":"2018-07-19T12:17:47","modified_gmt":"2018-07-19T16:17:47","slug":"bitcoin-rallies-to-upper-channel-what-next","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/07\/bitcoin-rallies-to-upper-channel-what-next\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Rallies to Upper Channel – What Next?"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 19, 2018<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June.\u00a0 Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel.\u00a0 We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days\/weeks where the price of Bitcoin should continue to drop from these levels near $7500.\u00a0 We know there are many Bitcoin investors that want to hear us state that it should continue to push higher, but there are other factors at play here that may limit this movement.<\/p>\n

The price channels that are currently constraining the price of Bitcoin originate back in February and March of 2018.\u00a0 The low and high price rotation within these months start the points of interest for our research team.\u00a0 From these points, we have continued to identify key price levels that appear to contain breakouts.<\/p>\n

You can see from the chart below, the upper BLUE channel line is our downward sloping price channel that is acting like an upper ceiling for the price.\u00a0 Additionally, you can see our \u201cdrawn Red and Green arrows\u201d showing what we believed Bitcoin would potentially do over the next few months.\u00a0 We believed that Bitcoin, as it traded lower, towards $6k, may find support and rally (based on our time\/price cycles) towards a peak near July 16 (showing as the end of the Green Arrow).\u00a0 From this point, we believe the price of Bitcoin will trail off, heading lower, with the intent to retest channel support near $5700 if the price cannot break through and hold above the blue upper channel.<\/p>\n

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This longer-term daily Bitcoin chart shows a larger picture of our analysis work.\u00a0 You can clearly see the channels that are constraining price at the moment \u2013 the BLUE support channel and the RED resistance channel.\u00a0 The most recent lows established a new lower price point for the Blue channel \u2013 which indicated a downward sloping pennant formation is in place.<\/p>\n

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There are two things we want to caution Bitcoin investors and traders about.\u00a0 First, the rotation that we are expecting to complete this pennant formation could happen very quickly within a fairly tight range ($7400 to $5700).\u00a0 For traders, this is an excellent range for some quick profits.\u00a0 For investors, this could create some stress as price rotates.<\/p>

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Second, by our estimates, at least one more low price rotation is required before any real breakout will be attempted.\u00a0 If our analysis is correct, this current price peak will end with prices falling back below $6k, forming another \u201clower bottom\u201d and rallying again to near the upper price channel (near $6700 or so) before trailing off for the last time \u2013 nearing the apex of the pennant formation.\u00a0 We believe the current outcome of this price setup will be a low price breakout, forming a potential wave 5 that should end near or below $5500.\u00a0 After that bottom is reached, we should be looking for a new bottom formation setting up a new advancement leg higher.<\/p>\n

Could our analysis change, of course, it could depending on what price action shows us.\u00a0 Right now, this pennant formation and the wave counts are driving our analysis.\u00a0 The Time\/price cycle analysis helps us to determine when and where price target\/peaks\/troughs may happen, but they are not set in stone.\u00a0 If you are a trader and are long Bitcoin, this may be the highest price you will see over the next few months.\u00a0 If you are an investor and think this is the start of a bigger move higher \u2013 we don\u2019t agree with you.\u00a0 We believe we are very close to the final leg lower that should form the new price bottom \u2013 at least for a while.\u00a0 Once this bottom forms, we\u2019ll be able to provide a better understanding of what we believe will happen in the future.\u00a0 For right now, our target low for the bottom is $4400 on or near August 20, 2018.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see how it plays out.<\/p>\n

We keep a close eye using our proprietary ADL Fibonacci and ADL Cycle forecasting systems using the Bitcoin investment trust which trades like a stock\/ETF, the symbol is: GBTC.<\/p>\n

If you want to learn how we can help you stay ahead of these global market moves and help you plan for and execute greater trades, please visit TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/u>\u00a0to learn how we assist you.\u00a0 We offer comprehensive research, analysis, daily video, trading signals and much more to our valued subscribers.\u00a0 We also offer access to our specialized proprietary price modeling systems that have proven to be timely and accurate.<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen
\nTheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong>
\nTechnical Traders Ltd.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com Even we were concerned with Bitcoin briefly traded below $6k in late June.\u00a0 Yet, the recent upside price move was incredibly quick and the price of Bitcoin ran right up to our upper price channel.\u00a0 We believe this will become a new price peak over the next few days\/weeks where the price of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-130390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130390","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=130390"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130390\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":130391,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130390\/revisions\/130391"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=130390"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=130390"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=130390"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}