{"id":130156,"date":"2018-07-15T12:06:55","date_gmt":"2018-07-15T16:06:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=130156"},"modified":"2018-07-16T08:55:14","modified_gmt":"2018-07-16T12:55:14","slug":"trader-case-study-what-happens-when-you-use-corporate-earnings-to-pick-trades","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/07\/trader-case-study-what-happens-when-you-use-corporate-earnings-to-pick-trades\/","title":{"rendered":"Trader Case Study: What Happens When You Use Corporate Earnings to Pick Trades"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-3626514077\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">July 15, 2018<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><h3 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">See which data set helped traders stay in front of REGN\u2019s late 2017-early 2018 crash <\/span><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"margin-top: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">By Elliott Wave International<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>According to a June 26 Fortune Magazine article, New York-based bio tech company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is one of the &#8220;100 Best Places for Millennials to Work&#8221; in the world. Shares one of Regeneron&#8217;s employees:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;The thing I love about working at Regeneron is that when they say <strong>data is king<\/strong>, they mean it. Our work and projects are always changing based on what the data shows us.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>We hear the same expression bandied about Wall Street; data is king to determining a market&#8217;s price trend, with the long-reigning monarch of that data being earnings reports.<\/p>\n<p>All hail earnings reports? Not so fast!<\/p>\n<p>Our very own senior analyst and long-reigning <em>Trader&#8217;s Classroom <\/em>instructor Jeffrey Kennedy admits to the &#8220;seductive nature&#8221; of earnings data, tempting investors into a false sense of confidence regarding future price action. But there&#8217;s a danger in such logic, as Jeffrey explains:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;My own experience trading earnings reports has been hit or miss. At the very least, it&#8217;s been frustrating because there have been times when the earnings report will be positive, and the stock price will decline &#8212; or vice a versa.&#8221;<\/p><div id=\"inves-4257536813\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Get immediate access to Jeffrey Kennedy&#8217;s free 20-minute video, &#8220;<strong>4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid Trades<\/strong>.&#8221; In this video, Jeffrey reveals his time-proven tricks to ID top trade set-ups in the markets you follow. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/Free-Reports\/4-Keys-to-Crafting-Rock-Solid-Trades\"><strong>Learn more now<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>You&#8217;ve seen this happen too, I&#8217;m sure. So, why <em>does<\/em> it happen?<\/p>\n<p>Because it&#8217;s not the hard data inside the earnings report that drives prices. It&#8217;s how the market participants interpret that data. And their interpretation depends on the current trend in market psychology. But hold on, let&#8217;s let Jeffrey explain more.<\/p>\n<p>Over the course of his career as a technical market analyst and trading instructor, Jeffrey has relied on another form of data to determine the most &#8220;watch-worthy&#8221; issues: Elliott wave analysis. For Jeffrey, there are three main requirements for a high-confidence trade set-up:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"ewi-bullets\">\n<li><strong>A Clear Trend<\/strong>: Jeffrey explains: &#8220;The first thing I want to identify on a market&#8217;s price chart is the trend.&#8221; Higher highs and higher lows indicate an uptrend, whereas lower highs and lower lows suggest a downtrend at play.<\/li>\n<li><strong>A Recognizable Wave Pattern: <\/strong>Jeffrey is emphatic: &#8220;If you can&#8217;t count [the Elliott wave subdivisions inside a price move], don&#8217;t trade it.&#8221; He sticks to the five core Elliott wave patterns: impulse wave, ending diagonal, zigzag, flat, and triangle.<\/li>\n<li><strong>A Clue to Price Personality: <\/strong>Slow and choppy price action contained within parallel lines indicates countertrend action &#8212; i.e., a correction. Conversely, when prices move far and fast, and especially if you see a price gap on the chart, this indicates the so-called impulse waves &#8212; i.e., the direction of the larger trend.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Now let&#8217;s see how Jeffrey uses this Elliott wave data to interpret real-world price charts. One market that&#8217;s fresh on the brain is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: REGN).<\/p>\n<p>Our first mention of REGN comes from Jeffrey&#8217;s October 19, 2017 <em>Trader&#8217;s Classroom <\/em>video lesson. See why Elliott waves called for REGN to step off a sharp bearish cliff to new lows. Simply press &#8220;play&#8221; and enjoy:<\/p>\n<div style=\"position: relative; display: block; max-width: 100%;\">\n<div style=\"padding-top: 56.25%;\"><video class=\"video-js\" style=\"position: absolute; top: 0px; right: 0px; bottom: 0px; left: 0px; width: 100%; height: 100%;\" controls=\"controls\" width=\"300\" height=\"150\" data-video-id=\"5807028486001\" data-account=\"5359769204001\" data-player=\"default\" data-embed=\"default\" data-application-id=\"\"><\/video> <script src=\"\/\/players.brightcove.net\/5359769204001\/default_default\/index.min.js\"><\/script><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s a close-up of Jeffrey&#8217;s chart of REGN along with a recap of his overall forecast:<\/p>\n<p style=\"margin-left: 0.5in;\">&#8220;The weight of evidence&#8230; would argue for a move to the downside.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/-\/media\/2D9AE22DA48B4FC389A50EADBC5EAB42.ashx\" alt=\"7618REGN1\" width=\"600\" height=\"555\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The next chart shows you how closely REGN&#8217;s prices followed Jeffrey&#8217;s October 19 <em>Trader&#8217;s Classroom<\/em> Elliott wave script: They collapsed 35% to a four-year low.<\/p>\n<p>And yes \u2013 prices fell DESPITE one of the most glowing earnings reports in the biotech company&#8217;s history.<\/p>\n<p>You read that right! On November 8, 2017, Regeneron published its Q3 2017 earnings, which showed <strong>&#8220;street-topping revenue&#8221;<\/strong> that <strong>&#8220;crushed&#8221;<\/strong> expectations with a 27.5% increase in adjusted income per share and a 23% increase in sales versus year ago period. (Investor&#8217;s Business Journal)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/-\/media\/55AE8F935B794E98B21E1CAA2E5ACAC4.ashx\" alt=\"7818REGNafter\" width=\"600\" height=\"490\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The failure of a positive earnings report to stem the market&#8217;s decline and fuel a rally is exactly the &#8220;hit or miss&#8221; nature of the earnings beast Jeffrey spoke about.<\/p>\n<p>By contrast, Elliott wave analysis steered a clear, objective course that proved invaluable to traders and investors.<\/p>\n<p>And while Elliott wave data enabled Jeffrey to anticipate the larger trend unfolding on Regeneron&#8217;s weekly price chart, it also facilitated a strong assessment of the market&#8217;s near-term prospects in his more recent, June 26, 2018 <em>Trader&#8217;s Classroom <\/em>video lesson<em>. <\/em><\/p>\n<p>There, Jeffrey &#8220;moved down to a smaller, 60-minute time frame to examine the smaller Elliott wave substructure.&#8221; The chart, pictured below showed that a large move up was on tap.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/-\/media\/3CABF5CFAB0B4C01A229F458DF989B89.ashx?h=559&amp;w=600\" alt=\"7618REGN2\" width=\"600\" height=\"559\" \/><\/p>\n<p>And here&#8217;s what happened next:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/-\/media\/60560C400DDE4D52BD169F4CBD3AEC6D.ashx\" alt=\"7618REGN3\" width=\"600\" height=\"544\" \/><\/p>\n<p>In the same June 26 <em>Trader&#8217;s Classroom<\/em> video lesson, Jeffrey also revisits REGN&#8217;s larger trend, to answer the question:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Is there sufficient evidence in place that the selloff from the 2017 high is complete?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>In the video, Jeffrey examines the data at hand and comes up with a strong case for one kind of move in the weeks and months ahead.<\/p>\n<p>While not every Elliott wave forecast works out, the value of Elliott wave analysis is clear from this real-world example &#8212; and from every Trader&#8217;s Classroom lesson Jeffrey records for his subscribers.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>Get immediate access to Jeffrey Kennedy&#8217;s free 20-minute video, &#8220;<strong>4 Keys to Crafting Rock-Solid Trades<\/strong>.&#8221; In this video, Jeffrey reveals his time-proven tricks to ID top trade set-ups in the markets you follow. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/Free-Reports\/4-Keys-to-Crafting-Rock-Solid-Trades?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa772&amp;sc_camp=92B598A7F8F843DBAC71E622F69F945F&amp;dy=aa071218\"><strong>Learn more now<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-top: 10px; border-top: solid 1px #CCCCCC;\"><em>This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline <a href=\"https:\/\/www.elliottwave.com\/Trading\/Regeneron-Pharmaceuticals-REGN-Earnings-vs-Elliott-wave-analysis?acn=9cp&amp;rcn=aa772&amp;sc_camp=92B598A7F8F843DBAC71E622F69F945F&amp;dy=aa071218\"><strong>Trader Case Study: What Happens When You Use Corporate Earnings to Pick Trades<\/strong><\/a>. EWI is the world&#8217;s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>See which data set helped traders stay in front of REGN\u2019s late 2017-early 2018 crash By Elliott Wave International According to a June 26 Fortune Magazine article, New York-based bio tech company Regeneron Pharmaceuticals is one of the &#8220;100 Best Places for Millennials to Work&#8221; in the world. Shares one of Regeneron&#8217;s employees: &#8220;The thing [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-130156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130156","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=130156"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130156\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":130157,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130156\/revisions\/130157"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=130156"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=130156"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=130156"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}