{"id":129688,"date":"2018-07-09T07:16:24","date_gmt":"2018-07-09T11:16:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=129688"},"modified":"2018-07-09T07:16:24","modified_gmt":"2018-07-09T11:16:24","slug":"crude-oil-possibly-setting-up-for-a-big-downside-move","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/07\/crude-oil-possibly-setting-up-for-a-big-downside-move\/","title":{"rendered":"Crude Oil possibly setting up for a big downside move"},"content":{"rendered":"
July 9, 2018<\/div>
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in Crude Oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while.\u00a0 Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets\/economies as well as supply\/demand issues throughout the rest of this year.<\/p>\n

Demand for Oil is tied to the economic activities throughout much of the globe.\u00a0 When demand for Oil is high, one can perceive the global economy to be performing well and consumer demand for oil-based products rather high.\u00a0 When demand for oil subsidies, it is usually due to economic constraints as a result of slower consumer and industrial demand.\u00a0 The only time demand for oil typically skyrockets are when massive supply disruption takes place or war breaks out.<\/p>\n

Current price rotation to the upside has reached and stalled near an upper price channel and coincides with our Tesla Vibrational Theory price arcs.\u00a0 We believe this could be setting up for a big downside price move in the near future.\u00a0 Our interpretation of this setup is that Oil will quickly find pricing pressures near the $74-$75 level and begin to move lower.<\/p>\n

Before we continue much further, let\u2019s take a look at some statistical data for the Month of July with Crude Oil.<\/p>\n

Over 36 total months of scanned data (data going all the way back to 1983) we can determine the following :<\/p>

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**\u00a0 All data related only to the month of July\u00a0 **<\/p>\n

Total price activity over those 36 total months:-$5.28<\/p>\n

Total Monthly Positive Results = $49.78 spanning 24 total months \u2013 Averaging $2.07<\/p>\n

Total Monthly Negative Results = -$55.06 spanning 12 total months \u2013 Averaging -$4.59<\/p>\n

Largest Positive Month = +$8.47<\/p>\n

Largest Negative Month = -$15.92<\/p>\n

This data tells us that July is more often resulting in a positive price move (by a 2:1 ratio), yet the upside totals do not out perform the downside moves.\u00a0 The downside price moves for July total nearly 10% more than the total upside price moves and equates to exactly half the number of instances (12 vs. 24).<\/p>\n

This data suggests to us that any potential downside move in Crude could be well in excess of -$4.00 and could be as large as -$10.00 or more.\u00a0 If our analysis is correct that Crude could rotate much lower based on our price channels and Tesla theory setup, we could be in for a move to below $64.00 ppb here soon if price confirms a breakdown on a close below $72.<\/p>\n

This Daily Crude Oil chart shows the wedge formation and our Tesla price vibrational arcs that we believe are set up for a potential downside price rotation move.\u00a0 Obviously, we can see that Oil has rotated within this channel at least twice before \u2013 which is why we believe this current downside rotation could have a high probability of happening.\u00a0 Additionally, our predictive modeling system is suggesting price weakness this week in Crude Oil.<\/p>\n

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This Weekly Crude Oil Chart below shows the same pattern over a longer span of time.\u00a0 Our belief that the $64.00 support level (shown as a horizontal CYAN support line) will be retested over the next 2~5+ weeks if this projected price rotation plays out could mean that if the $64.00 level is breached, we could see Oil fall to well below $60.00 ppb headed into the end of this year.<\/p>\n

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Consider this fact of data for a minute as we consider this possible price rotation.\u00a0 Since 1983, using quarterly price data, the Q4 historical data show us the following:<\/p>\n

Total Q4 Price Move: -$80.71 over 36 Q4 data points<\/p>\n

Total Positive Q4 Data: +$85.87 over 14 data points \u2013 Averaging +$6.13<\/p>\n

Total Negative Q4 Data: -$116.58 over 21 data points \u2013 Averaging -$7.93<\/p>\n

Largest Q4 upside move: +$19.63<\/p>\n

Largest Q4 downside move: -$56.04<\/p>\n

Downside price action in Crude Oil is nearly 33% more predictable than upside price action in Q4 with the largest price changes reflecting almost +300% greater chance of downside price collapse than upside price rally.<\/p>\n

We may be a bit early with our prediction near this upper price channel, but we believe this could be a super trade going into the end of this year.\u00a0 We just have to wait for the move to accelerate and begin to rotate lower.<\/p>\n

Have you been following our analysis recently?\u00a0 Did you catch the\u00a0upside price move in the US equities markets like we have been predicting for the past few months?\u00a0 How about the moves in the metals markets \u2013 did you catch those too?\u00a0 Want to learn how a small and very dedicated team of researchers and traders can assist you in developing greater success for your trading and help you stay ahead of these market moves?<\/p>\n

Then visit\u00a0www.TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u>\u00a0to learn how we can help.\u00a0 Our members receive proprietary research, daily video content, detailed trading signals and much more to assist them in finding great trading opportunities and staying ahead of these crazy market moves.\u00a0\u00a0Join the Wealth Building Trading Newsletter\u00a0today to learn how we can help you become more successful.<\/p>\n

By TheTechnicalTraders.com<\/u><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By TheTechnicalTraders.com Our research team has identified a potential major price rotation setup in Crude Oil that may be one of the biggest opportunities for traders in a long while.\u00a0 Traders need to be aware of this potential move because it could coincide with other news related to foreign markets\/economies as well as supply\/demand issues […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-129688","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129688","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129688"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129688\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":129689,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129688\/revisions\/129689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129688"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=129688"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=129688"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}