{"id":129398,"date":"2018-07-02T07:20:51","date_gmt":"2018-07-02T11:20:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.countingpips.com\/?p=129398"},"modified":"2018-07-02T06:21:37","modified_gmt":"2018-07-02T10:21:37","slug":"eurusd-geopolitics-weighing-on-the-euro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/07\/eurusd-geopolitics-weighing-on-the-euro\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD: geopolitics weighing on the euro"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1952343199\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">July 2, 2018<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p><strong>Previous:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On Friday the 29<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of June, the euro surged against the US dollar. Demand for the euro increased after the news that EU leaders reached an agreement on migration. The single currency also enjoyed support from positive Eurozone data along with the general decline of the greenback. The EURUSD pair closed the day at 1.1682, marking a rise of 0.99%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>US data:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>Chicago PMI (Jun): 64.1 (forecast: 60.0, previous: 62.7).<\/li>\n<li>Michigan consumer sentiment index (Jun): 98.2 (forecast: 99.2, previous: 99.3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Day\u2019s news (GMT+3):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>10:15 Switzerland: real retail sales (May).<\/li>\n<li>10:30 Switzerland: SVME \u2013 PMI (Jun).<\/li>\n<li>10:45 Italy: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).<\/li>\n<li>10:50 France: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).<\/li>\n<li>10:55 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).<\/li>\n<li>11:00 Eurozone: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).<\/li>\n<li>12:00 Eurozone: unemployment rate (May).<\/li>\n<li>16:45 USA: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun).<\/li>\n<li>17:00 USA: ISM manufacturing PMI (Jun).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/data\/media\/cms\/images\/02.07.18_EURUSD_H1_5b39e5620ccee.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView<\/p>\n<p>Trading on the euro opened down on Monday after the US dollar made some gains across the board. In addition to the dollar, the euro crosses are also now piling pressure on the single currency. This pressure is mostly the result of political turmoil.<\/p><div id=\"inves-2596884368\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>This time, traders have reacted negatively to a publication from Rheinische Post, which reported that the German CDU and CSU parties are planning to hold another meeting to discuss the migration deal reached on Friday. Clearly, someone isn\u2019t happy with the current policy.<\/p>\n<p>In Asia, the euro has dropped from 1.1690 to 1.1637 (-53 pips). Friday closed with a wedge, and the price moved out of it early this morning. It would have been too late to open a short position from the 135<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree before the weekend, and as of this morning the pair is already trading at 1.1655.<\/p>\n<p>The downwards correction from the high of 1.1690 came to 45 degrees. I think that this downwards movement will continue after a slight pullback. If we catch the Fibo levels on the downwards wave from 1.1690 to 1.1637, we can think about selling from around 1.1657 \u2013 1.1665 (38.2 \u2013 50%).<\/p>\n<p>On the current hour (9:00 GMT+3), the trend line and balance line are intersecting at 1.1615. Today, they\u2019re acting as supports. I\u2019m expecting a breakout of the trend line at 1.1633 at around 18:00 (GMT+3). Today is Monday, so this drop could be in response to Friday\u2019s movements and it could continue until the end of the US session.<\/p>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\">Source: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/hidden_copyright\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">EURUSD: geopolitics weighing on the euro<\/a>&#8220;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari Previous: On Friday the 29th\u00a0of June, the euro surged against the US dollar. Demand for the euro increased after the news that EU leaders reached an agreement on migration. The single currency also enjoyed support from positive Eurozone data along with the general decline of the greenback. The EURUSD pair closed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-129398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=129398"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129398\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":129399,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/129398\/revisions\/129399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=129398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=129398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=129398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}