{"id":120320,"date":"2018-01-25T08:15:41","date_gmt":"2018-01-25T13:15:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=120320"},"modified":"2018-06-01T15:43:49","modified_gmt":"2018-06-01T15:43:49","slug":"eurusd-dollar-in-freefall-mode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2018\/01\/eurusd-dollar-in-freefall-mode\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD: dollar in freefall mode"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2959860537\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">January 25, 2018<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p><strong>Previous:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday the 24<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of January, trading on the euro closed up. Steve Mnuchin, the US Minister of Finance\u2019s verbal intervention sent the dollar into freefall.<\/p>\n<p>At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mnuchin said that the dollar\u2019s decline is good for trade. In saying this, he gave the green light to speculators to short the dollar in the hope of improving macro-economic indicators.<\/p>\n<p>The reaction on markets was swift. The euro rose against the dollar to 1.2415. In Asia, the euro rose further to 1.2443.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Day\u2019s news (GMT+3):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>10:00 Germany: Gfk consumer confidence survey (Feb).<\/li>\n<li>12:00 Germany: IFO \u2013 business climate (Jan), IFO \u2013 current assessment (Jan), IFO \u2013 expectations (Jan).<\/li>\n<li>12:30 UK: BBA mortgage approvals (Dec).<\/li>\n<li>14:00 UK: CBI distributive trades survey \u2013 realized (Jan).<\/li>\n<li>15:45 Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision.<\/li>\n<li>16:30 Eurozone: ECB monetary policy statement and press conference.<\/li>\n<li>16:30 Canada: retail sales (Nov).<\/li>\n<li>18:00 USA: new home sales (Dec).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/data\/media\/trunk\/images\/eur_250118_5a698fff5d8a5.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1. EURUSD monthly chart. Source: TradingView<\/p><div id=\"inves-2004507472\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Given that the Trump Administration isn\u2019t fazed by the dollar\u2019s decline, and that the ECB is equally unfazed by the euro\u2019s rise, the bullish trend that started from 1.0340 has strengthened. The euro has been on the rise for the last 13 months, closing down in only 3 of them.<\/p>\n<p>On the hourly, timeframe, the euro is trading below the U3 line around the 180<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree. For now though, I\u2019d like to draw your attention to the monthly chart to give you an idea of what\u2019s in store for the euro this quarter.<\/p>\n<p>On the 10<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of July, 2017, I made a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/analytics\/reviews\/trading_ideas\/20494_10072017\/\">prediction<\/a>\u00a0concerning what would happen in the event of a breakout of the A-A channel. I\u2019ve adjusted the channels since then, so today\u2019s chart is different from the one I posted in July. Back then, I was expecting to see quotes rise to the trend line of the B-B channel.<\/p>\n<p>1.2517 marks the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the drop from 1.6038 to 1.0340. If the trend line doesn\u2019t stop the bulls, there\u2019s a high likelihood that the euro will continue to grow as far as 1.31 (to the boundary of the C-C channel).<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s key event for the euro is the ECB meeting on monetary policy and Mario Draghi\u2019s subsequent press conference. Given that the dollar has collapsed following Steve Mnuchin\u2019s comments, I don\u2019t think that Draghi can possibly sink the euro. If he does try to, traders will buy the euro on the dip.<\/p>\n<p>Ongoing trade conflicts are to be the primary focus today, which will distract from other problems. In the coming days, I expect to see similar statements from different countries about the state of their national currencies. Traders seem to have forgotten about upcoming rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve.<\/p>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\">Source: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/hidden_copyright\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">EURUSD: dollar in freefall mode<\/a>&#8220;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari Previous: On Wednesday the 24th\u00a0of January, trading on the euro closed up. Steve Mnuchin, the US Minister of Finance\u2019s verbal intervention sent the dollar into freefall. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mnuchin said that the dollar\u2019s decline is good for trade. In saying this, he gave the green light [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-120320","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120320","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=120320"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120320\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":120322,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/120320\/revisions\/120322"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=120320"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=120320"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=120320"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}