{"id":118167,"date":"2017-12-15T07:40:46","date_gmt":"2017-12-15T12:40:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=118167"},"modified":"2018-06-01T15:48:24","modified_gmt":"2018-06-01T15:48:24","slug":"eurusd-frozen-at-the-balance-line","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/12\/eurusd-frozen-at-the-balance-line\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD: frozen at the balance line"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2826818571\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">December 15, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p><strong>Previous:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On Thursday the 14<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of December, the ECB decided to maintain its key interest rate at 0.0% and the deposit rate at -0.4%. The euro\/dollar pair jumped to 1.1863 after the publication of economic forecasts before dropping back to 1.1771 (-92) after Mario Draghi\u2019s speech and the publication of US data.<\/p>\n<p>During the press conference, Draghi said that the ECB had upgraded their economic forecasts for GDP and inflation growth. Projected GDP growth in 2018 has been revised upwards from 1.8% to 2.3%, while projected inflation has been revised from 1.2% to 1.4%. Draghi added that if the conditions for economic growth get any worse, the ECB would expand its asset purchasing program.<\/p>\n<p>The US dollar rose against most of the majors after positive statistics on employment and retail sales. The number of initial jobless claims last week fell by 11,000 to 225,000. The retail sales index grew by 0.8% against a forecast of 0.3% and a previous reading of 0.5% (revised from 0.2%).<\/p>\n<p><strong>Day\u2019s news (GMT+3):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>13:00 Eurozone: trade balance (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>15:00 UK: BoE quarterly bulletin.<\/li>\n<li>16:15 UK: MPOC member Haldane\u2019s speech.<\/li>\n<li>16:30 Canada: manufacturing shipments (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>16:30 USA: NY Empire State manufacturing index (Dec).<\/li>\n<li>17:15 USA: industrial production (Nov).<\/li>\n<li>00:00 USA (Sat): net long-term TIC flows (Oct).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/data\/media\/trunk\/images\/Analytics\/2017\/12\/eur_151217.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView<\/p><div id=\"inves-260736553\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>Yesterday, I wrote that technical analysis doesn\u2019t work when the heads of central banks a speaking or when large blocks of economic data are released. Yes, the price does take all events into account, but only post factum. Market expectations often diverge from the actual outcome. The past is a static picture. It doesn\u2019t change under any circumstances. We can analyse a price\u2019s historical behaviour, and simulate different scenarios, but the future can be shaped by us as fundamental data and statements from officials change market expectations.<\/p>\n<p>The W-model is off the cards. If the euro starts to rise again, we could see the formation of an upwards impulse towards the TR2 trend line. For that to happen, the euro needs to move from its current level and rise above the 45<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree, which is at 1.1819.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1784. This is close to the LB balance line. The price is in equilibrium on the hourly timeframe. My forecast has the euro dropping to the lower boundary of the A-A channel. The stochastic has reversed downwards, so I\u2019m expecting the euro to open down in Europe.<\/p>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\">Source: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/hidden_copyright\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">EURUSD: frozen at the balance line<\/a>&#8220;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari Previous: On Thursday the 14th\u00a0of December, the ECB decided to maintain its key interest rate at 0.0% and the deposit rate at -0.4%. The euro\/dollar pair jumped to 1.1863 after the publication of economic forecasts before dropping back to 1.1771 (-92) after Mario Draghi\u2019s speech and the publication of US data. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-118167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=118167"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118167\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":118169,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/118167\/revisions\/118169"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=118167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=118167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=118167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}