{"id":116824,"date":"2017-11-21T03:23:35","date_gmt":"2017-11-21T08:23:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=116824"},"modified":"2018-06-01T15:49:09","modified_gmt":"2018-06-01T15:49:09","slug":"oil-charts-showing-extreme-paradoxes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/11\/oil-charts-showing-extreme-paradoxes\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Charts Showing Extreme Paradoxes"},"content":{"rendered":"
November 21, 2017<\/div>
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The Energy Report<\/b><\/p>\n

Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports<\/em> \u00a0\u00a011\/20\/2017<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the conflicting signals from oil’s price chart and from the COT and Hedgers’ charts.<\/p>\n

It’s a good time to take an updated look at oil, because the
\nparadoxes we observed regarding gold and silver, which we looked at in
\nyesterday’s new Gold<\/a> and Silver<\/a> Market updates are much more extreme in the case of oil.<\/p>\n

On the latest 5-year chart for Light Crude we see that oil has in recent
\nweeks succeeding in breaking out of its giant Head-and-Shoulders base
\npattern at last. We also see that volume has expanded greatly over the
\npast two years which is viewed as a sign of a completing bottom. Recent
\nstrong upside volume has driven both volume indicators to new highs,
\ndespite the price still being way below its 2013 highs\u0097this is viewed
\nas a very bullish sign, and suggests that oil will advance at least to
\nthe $80 area.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/center>So what’s with the bearish looking COTs and Hedgers charts? Ordinarily
\nwe would be wary of oil peaking and reacting back upon seeing the latest
\nCOTs and Hedgers charts, which flat out contradict what we have just
\nobserved on the oil chart. First off, here’s the latest oil COT chart,
\nas we can see Commercial short and Large Spec long positions are at
\ntheir highest levels for the life of this chart, which is 1-year, by a
\nsignificant margin. This would normally make us wary.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/center>Click on chart to pop up a larger, clearer version.<\/p>\n

Next the latest oil Hedgers chart on which we see that Hedgers’
\npositions are at the sort of extremes that in the past have led to a
\nheavy drop in the oil price.<\/p>

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<\/a><\/center>Click on chart to pop up a larger, clearer version.<\/p>\n

Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com<\/i><\/p>\n

So what is to be made of this enormous contradiction? The oil charts
\nlook flat out bullish, but the oil COTs and Hedgers are at extremes that
\nnormally call for a drop. A key point to make here is that high
\nCommercial short and Large Spec long positions do not necessarily mean
\nan immediate drop\u0097these positions can get more extreme still as the
\nprice rises before an eventual reaction back occurs, and there is a
\nmajor fundamental development underway that may lead to that happening.<\/p>\n

One explanation of what we are seeing on the oil price charts in the face of seemingly contradictory COT and Hedgers data is the possibility of Saudi Arabia attacking Iran. Clearly, if Iran does come under an attack, the oil price could go through the roof, possibly way beyond $80, hardly surprising since it would probably close the Straits of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil still flows. Keep in mind though that this scenario will not become reality next week; it will likely take time to build up to it. But if it becomes increasingly clear that this is on the cards, we can expect the oil price to advance ahead of it.<\/p>\n

Clive Maund<\/i><\/a> has been president of www.clivemaund.com, a successful resource sector website, since its inception in 2003. He has 30 years’ experience in technical analysis and has worked for banks, commodity brokers and stockbrokers in the City of London. He holds a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the UK Society of Technical Analysts.<\/p>\n

Want to read more Energy Report<\/i> articles like this? Sign up<\/a> for our free e-newsletter, and you’ll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews<\/a> page.<\/p>\n

Disclosure:<\/b>
\n1) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of Clive Maund and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. Clive Maund is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. Streetwise Reports was not involved in the content preparation. Clive Maund was not paid by Streetwise Reports LLC for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article.
\n2) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer<\/a>. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.<\/p>\n

Charts provided by the author.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Energy Report Source: Clive Maund for Streetwise Reports \u00a0\u00a011\/20\/2017 Technical analyst Clive Maund discusses the conflicting signals from oil’s price chart and from the COT and Hedgers’ charts. It’s a good time to take an updated look at oil, because the paradoxes we observed regarding gold and silver, which we looked at in yesterday’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-116824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116824"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116824\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116830,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116824\/revisions\/116830"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}