{"id":116583,"date":"2017-11-16T07:45:36","date_gmt":"2017-11-16T12:45:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=116583"},"modified":"2018-06-01T15:49:12","modified_gmt":"2018-06-01T15:49:12","slug":"eurusd-daily-pin-bar-model-suggests-a-decline-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/11\/eurusd-daily-pin-bar-model-suggests-a-decline-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD: daily pin bar model suggests a decline ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2902905352\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">November 16, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p>On Wednesday the 15<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of November, trading on the euro\/dollar pair closed down to form a pin bar or shooting start model on the daily timeframe. The euro opened up in the European session. In the space of three hours, the rate jumped 68 pips to 1.1853. After the publication of US data, buyers shifted the intraday high to 1.1860.<\/p>\n<p>Traders initially reacted by selling the dollar after the publication revealed slowing inflation in the US in October. However, annual inflation and retail sales data turned out better than expected. After a sharp reversal upwards for US 10Y bond yields, traders started taking profit on their positions on the euro\/dollar.<\/p>\n<p>Fuel was added to the fire by Eric Rosengren, head of the Boston Fed. Rosengren contended that due to the fact that the US economy is growing faster, the Fed should continue on its path of rate hikes for the rest of the year and into next year. By the end of the day, the rate had dropped to 1.1790, erasing all of its gains.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Day\u2019s news (GMT+3):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>11:45 Eurozone: ECB board member Yves Mersch\u2019s speech.<\/li>\n<li>12:30 UK: retail sales (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>13:00 Eurozone: CPI (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>16:30 Canada: Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Sep), foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Sep), manufacturing shipments (Sep).<\/li>\n<li>16:30 USA: initial jobless claims (10 Nov), import price index (Oct), Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (Nov).<\/li>\n<li>17:00 UK: BoE governor Mark Carney\u2019s speech, MPC member Cunliffe\u2019s speech, MPC member Broadbent\u2019s speech.<\/li>\n<li>17:10 USA: FOMC member Mester\u2019s speech.<\/li>\n<li>17:15 USA: industrial production (Oct), capacity utilisation (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>18:00 USA: NAHB housing market index (Nov).<\/li>\n<li>20:00 Switzerland: SNB governing board member Andr\u00e9a Maechler\u2019s speech, SNB governing board member Dewet Moser\u2019s speech.<\/li>\n<li>20:30 USA: FOMC member Kaplan\u2019s speech.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/data\/media\/trunk\/images\/Analytics\/2017\/11\/eur_161117.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView<\/p>\n<p>The U3 MA line held buyers up once again. The resistance around the 1.1850 mark was bolstered by the horizontal Gann line. In the second half of the day, some buyers exited the market, while some turned into bears.<\/p>\n<p>The price returned from the U3 line (SMA 55, 1% divergence) to the LB balance line. The market is now in equilibrium on the hourly timeframe. The price is sitting on the 67<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree. Considering that a pin bar has formed on the daily timeframe, I\u2019m forecasting a drop to 1.1751 with an intermediate rebound to 1.1803. This drop won\u2019t happen, though, if the hourly candlestick closes above 1.1805. If the euro opens down in Europe, we can set a target at 1.1724 (112<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree). I\u2019d also recommend keeping an eye on price behaviour after the long-tailed candlesticks formed on 29\/08, 08\/09, and 22\/09.<\/p>\n<p>The target for the pin bar is 1.1710, but there\u2019s no guarantee that this will be reached. However, it has more than a 60% chance of working out. These things tend to work out well when there aren\u2019t any important news releases planned. There are a lot of speeches scheduled for today and no one knows who will say what.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>Source:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/analytics\/reviews\/market_sessions\/23043_16112017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">EURUSD: daily pin bar model suggests a decline ahead<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari On Wednesday the 15th\u00a0of November, trading on the euro\/dollar pair closed down to form a pin bar or shooting start model on the daily timeframe. The euro opened up in the European session. In the space of three hours, the rate jumped 68 pips to 1.1853. After the publication of US [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-116583","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116583","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=116583"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116583\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116584,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116583\/revisions\/116584"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=116583"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=116583"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=116583"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}