{"id":115828,"date":"2017-11-02T07:28:23","date_gmt":"2017-11-02T11:28:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=115828"},"modified":"2018-06-01T15:53:32","modified_gmt":"2018-06-01T15:53:32","slug":"eurusd-head-and-shoulders-model-may-not-work-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/11\/eurusd-head-and-shoulders-model-may-not-work-out\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD: head and shoulders model may not work out"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-2422059699\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">November 2, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p><strong>Previous:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday the 1<sup>st<\/sup>\u00a0of November, trading on the euro\/dollar pair closed down at 1.1618. The 45<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree at 1.1607 prevented the euro from falling any further. Sellers were unable to break this level even after some strong US data and the conclusion of the FOMC\u2019s meeting.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed\u2019s November meeting passed over us rather peacefully as there was no publication of economic projections, nor was there a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen.<\/p>\n<p>The key rate was maintained at 1 &#8211; 1.25%. This decision was in line with expectations, so the reaction was muted. Market participants are expecting a rate hike at the next meeting in December.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Day\u2019s news (GMT+3):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>09:45 Switzerland: SECO consumer climate (Q3). This news is just for show and can be ignored.<\/li>\n<li>11:15 Switzerland: real retail sales (Sep).<\/li>\n<li>11:50 France: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>11:55 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct), unemployment rate (Oct), unemployment change (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>12:00 Eurozone: Markit manufacturing PMI (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>12:30 UK: PMI construction (Oct).<\/li>\n<li>15:00 UK: BoE interest rate decision, BoE asset purchase facility, monetary policy summary, BoE quarterly inflation report.<\/li>\n<li>15:30 UK: BoE\u2019s governor Carney speech.<\/li>\n<li>15:30 USA: initial jobless claims (27 Oct).<\/li>\n<li>19:20 USA: Fed\u2019s William Dudley speech.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/data\/media\/trunk\/images\/Analytics\/2017\/11\/eur_021117.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView<\/p><div id=\"inves-4024167288\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p>On Wednesday, trading on the euro closed down, although the price didn\u2019t reach the target in my forecast (1.1580). The euro stopped falling at around the 45<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree. Sellers got some excellent momentum from 1.1657 and broke through 1.1625, which they had been chipping away at for 40 hours, before finally coming to a stop. A series of constant 30-pip price jumps significantly weakened their position. They were unable to nurture the new bearish impulse despite the strong ADP data and the positive conclusion to the Fed meeting.<\/p>\n<p>Today in Asia, the rate has jumped 59 pips. The reasons for such a rapid increase are beyond me. All I know is that this morning\u2019s growth to above 1.1600 has cast doubt on the continuation of the head and shoulders (H&amp;S) model. If Thursday\u2019s candlestick closes above 1.1600, we can forget about the H&amp;S model.<\/p>\n<p>Due to such uncertainty, I don\u2019t have any predictions for today. President Trump may have caused this uncertainty. On Wednesday, it was reported by the Wall Street Journal that according to an anonymous source from the White House, Trump is inclined to nominate Jerome Powell to the post of Fed Chair. He will announce his decision at 19:00 GMT. Trump has tweeted that everyone will be impressed by his choice. A reform bill is also set to be published.<\/p>\n<p>Before Trump, trader attention will be focused on the Bank of England\u2019s MPC meeting. The repo rate is expected to be raised by 25 base points to 0.5%. If this doesn\u2019t happen, the pound could enter freefall and drop 150 \u2013 200 pips. The intensity of the drop will depend on the distribution of votes among the MPC. If the regulator decides on a rate hike, the pound will move up towards the 1.3355 area. The euro will follow suit.<\/p>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\">Source: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/hidden_copyright\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">EURUSD: head and shoulders model may not work out<\/a>&#8220;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari Previous: On Wednesday the 1st\u00a0of November, trading on the euro\/dollar pair closed down at 1.1618. The 45th\u00a0degree at 1.1607 prevented the euro from falling any further. Sellers were unable to break this level even after some strong US data and the conclusion of the FOMC\u2019s meeting. The Fed\u2019s November meeting passed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-115828","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115828","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=115828"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115828\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":115829,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/115828\/revisions\/115829"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=115828"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=115828"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=115828"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}