{"id":114235,"date":"2017-10-06T07:35:17","date_gmt":"2017-10-06T11:35:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=114235"},"modified":"2017-10-06T07:21:45","modified_gmt":"2017-10-06T11:21:45","slug":"eurusd-flat-expected-leading-up-to-payrolls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/10\/eurusd-flat-expected-leading-up-to-payrolls\/","title":{"rendered":"EURUSD: flat expected leading up to payrolls"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-4267046396\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">October 6, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p><strong>Previous:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>On Thursday, the 5<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of October, trading on the euro\/dollar pair closed down. The euro shed 0.68% (-80 pips), dropping from its session high of 1.1779 to 1.1699. First, the pound dragged the other majors down with it. The dollar was later propped up by the release of positive data in the US and some statements from Fed representatives.<\/p>\n<p>America\u2019s trade deficit has been reduced, the number of jobless claims has decreased, factory orders have risen, and Fed representatives Williams and Harker have increased expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Harker announced that he expected one more rate hike in December and another three in 2018. Williams is expecting a gradual increase in rates.<\/p>\n<p>Fed Fund futures, which are tracked by CME Group, show that market participants put the probability of a rate hike in December at 86.7% against 77.5% for the 4<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0of October, and 71.4% for a week earlier.<\/p>\n<p><strong>US data:<\/strong><\/p><div id=\"inves-3805365583\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>Initial jobless claims (29 Sep): 260,000 (forecast: 265,000, previous: 272,000)<\/li>\n<li>Trade balance (Aug): -42.4bn USD (forecast: -42.7bn USD, previous: -43.6bn USD)<\/li>\n<li>Factory orders (Aug): 1.2% (forecast: 1.0%, previous: -3.3%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Day\u2019s news (GMT+3):<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>09:00 Germany: factory orders (Aug);<\/li>\n<li>10:00 Switzerland: foreign currency reserves (Aug);<\/li>\n<li>10:30 UK: Halifax house prices (Sep);<\/li>\n<li>15:00 UK: MPC member Haldane\u2019s speech;<\/li>\n<li>15:30 Canada: participation rate (Sep), unemployment rate (Sep);<\/li>\n<li>15:30 US: average hourly earnings (Sep), nonfarm payrolls (Sep), unemployment rate (Sep);<\/li>\n<li>17:00 Canada: Ivey PMI (Sep);<\/li>\n<li>17:00 US: wholesale inventories (Aug);<\/li>\n<li>19:15 US: Fed\u2019s Dudley speech;<\/li>\n<li>19:45 US: Fed\u2019s Kaplan speech;<\/li>\n<li>22:00 US: consumer credit change (Aug).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/data\/media\/trunk\/images\/Analytics\/2017\/10\/eur_061017.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">Fig 1. EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView<\/p>\n<p>My predictions for yesterday came off in full. The euro restored to the 67<sup>th<\/sup>\u00a0degree (1.1778) at the beginning of the European session as a result of the dynamics on the euro\/pound cross, before correcting to 1.1699. In Asia, the euro slid against the dollar to 1.1686.<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s chart doesn\u2019t contain any predictions. I don\u2019t make predictions on payrolls day. The NFP indicator is too unpredictable due to the constant revision of previous readings. So, we don\u2019t know what kind of data to expect today and what the reaction to it will be.<\/p>\n<p>The euro has dropped to 1.1686. I don\u2019t think that it\u2019ll stop here. If the payrolls data doesn\u2019t disappoint markets, we could see the euro fall as far as 1.1520 if we get a correction on the cross. Looking downwards, there are two levels we should keep an eye on; 1.1677 and 1.1645. I reckon that the euro\/dollar pair will trade flat up until the payrolls report is released.<\/p>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\">Source: &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/hidden_copyright\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">EURUSD: flat expected leading up to payrolls<\/a>&#8220;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari Previous: On Thursday, the 5th\u00a0of October, trading on the euro\/dollar pair closed down. The euro shed 0.68% (-80 pips), dropping from its session high of 1.1779 to 1.1699. First, the pound dragged the other majors down with it. The dollar was later propped up by the release of positive data in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-114235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=114235"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114235\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":114236,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/114235\/revisions\/114236"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=114235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=114235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=114235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}