{"id":109382,"date":"2017-07-21T09:30:25","date_gmt":"2017-07-21T13:30:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=109382"},"modified":"2017-07-21T07:05:37","modified_gmt":"2017-07-21T11:05:37","slug":"friday-charts-two-suckers-bets-and-one-sure-thing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/07\/friday-charts-two-suckers-bets-and-one-sure-thing\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Charts: Two Sucker\u2019s Bets and One Sure Thing"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-31933981\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">July 21, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/WallStreetDaily.com\/\"><u>WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"attachment-home-th size-home-th wp-post-image\" style=\"display: block; margin-bottom: 5px; clear: both;\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wallstreetdailywebsite\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/072117_UtterHumiliation_feature.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wallstreetdailywebsite\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/072117_UtterHumiliation_feature.jpg 580w, https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wallstreetdailywebsite\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/072117_UtterHumiliation_feature-300x155.jpg 300w\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"300\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Equal-opportunity humiliation.<\/li>\n<li>The surest bet in the market.<\/li>\n<li>Get the Champagne\u2026<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/pro.agorafinancial.com\/m\/716230\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Also recommended: All it takes is $20.<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p><!--END Hero Title and bullet point--><\/p>\n<p><!--Lead--><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter\" style=\"float: left; max-width: 85px;\" src=\"https:\/\/duip7hn7nchpo.cloudfront.net\/editor-circle-louis-basenese.jpg\" alt=\"Louis Basenese\" \/>It\u2019s Friday in the <i>Wall Street Daily <\/i>nation.<\/p>\n<p>Per our weekly routine, we\u2019re ditching our commentary-based articles in favor of a graphical representation of the week\u2019s most important economic and investment news.<\/p>\n<p>This week, we\u2019re profiling two sucker\u2019s bets \u2014 and we\u2019re being diplomatic about it. One is on the long side of the market. The other is on the short side. We\u2019re into equal-opportunity humiliation here.<\/p>\n<p>Then we\u2019re finishing off the week with one of the surest bets in the market. Convention says such a thing shouldn\u2019t exist. But the data don\u2019t lie.<\/p>\n<p>So let\u2019s get to it\u2026<\/p><div id=\"inves-1521857227\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"subhead\">Shorty Got Whacked<\/h2>\n<p>When Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) announced its acquisition of Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFM), that\u2019s all the financial press talked about.<\/p>\n<p>The same thing happened Wednesday after streaming giant Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) reported blistering subscriber growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/cheddar.com\/videos\/159432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">As I shared during my appearance on Cheddar<\/a><\/strong>,\u00a0it\u2019s <i>all<\/i> about the growth.<\/p>\n<p>Sure enough, the swelling subscriber ranks led to a rapidly expanding share price. Netflix shares surged nearly 15% on the day to close at a record high of $183.60.<\/p>\n<p>Subscribers to one of our premium advisory services were popping Champagne bottles when the news broke. Why? Because our strategy enabled them to pocket gains as high as 140% on the day. (<a href=\"https:\/\/pro.agorafinancial.com\/m\/716228\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>For full details on how to start using the same strategy in your account today, click here.<\/strong><\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>However, not everyone was celebrating. Heading into Netflix\u2019s report, short sellers pressed their bets that the stock price would collapse to near-record levels. But the only thing that\u2019s collapsing now are their account balances. Take a look\u2026<\/p>\n<p class=\"centered\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"centered aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wallstreetdailywebsite\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/shortsellers_chart.png\" alt=\"Short Interest VS. Stock Price Over Time\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Shorting red-hot momentum stocks, no matter how frothy the valuation, is a sucker\u2019s bet. Always.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"subhead\">Not-So-Hot IPOs<\/h2>\n<p>We\u2019re no stranger here to panning \u201chot\u201d IPOs \u2014 like Snap Inc. (NYSE: SNAP), Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) and Fitbit Inc. (NYSE: FIT), among others.<\/p>\n<p>While each serve as an effective case study against buying the latest IPO Wall Street is hyping up, now we have more comprehensive research to back up our avoidance behavior.<\/p>\n<p>The long-term chart of the Bloomberg IPO Index reveals that hot IPOs have been anything but hot for the last half decade.<\/p>\n<p>Or as Bespoke Investment Group put it, \u201cIPOs have lagged [large caps]\u2026 and lagged badly.\u201d<\/p>\n<p class=\"centered\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"centered aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wallstreetdailywebsite\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/notsohotipos_chart.png\" alt=\"Bloomberg IPO Interest\" \/><\/p>\n<p>This wasn\u2019t always the case, as you can see in the chart. So what\u2019s changed?<\/p>\n<p>We can blame it on excess VC funding, a lack of any truly innovative companies or anything else that sounds reasonable. But the cause doesn\u2019t really matter \u2014 only the investment takeaway does.<\/p>\n<p>Avoid this sucker\u2019s bet too!<\/p>\n<p class=\"subhead\">The Surest Way to Beat the S&amp;P 500<\/p>\n<p>File this under, \u201cNo Impressive Feat Goes Unpunished.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve long been an admirer of the research and analysis of one of the first financial bloggers, Eddy Elfenbein of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.crossingwallstreet.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Crossing Wall Street.<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<p>His approach is no frills, no fuss \u2014 just lots and lots of research.<\/p>\n<p>And his results are unparalleled. He\u2019s the rare active manager that outperforms the S&amp;P 500 index on a consistent basis. He\u2019s done it for eight of the last 10 years and is on track to do it again this year.<\/p>\n<p class=\"subhead\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"subhead aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/s3.amazonaws.com\/wallstreetdailywebsite\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/manmythlegent_chart.png\" alt=\"Eddy Elfenbein's Cumulative Return Vs. the S&amp;P 500 Index\" \/><\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s so successful he became the first financial blogger to parlay his strategy into a full-fledged actively managed ETF. Now longtime fans of his work (and results) can hit the \u201ceasy button\u201d and outperform the market too.<\/p>\n<p>Yet for some reason, <i>Barron\u2019s<\/i> decided to publish an irrelevant and overly critical article focusing on the fees his fund charges relative to <i>passive<\/i> index ETFs. Talk about comparing apples to oranges.<\/p>\n<p>As Elfenbein readily admits, his AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF (NYSE: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.advisorshares.com\/fund\/cws\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>CWS<\/strong><\/a>) is for \u201cpeople who are stock pickers.\u201d Not indexers.<\/p>\n<p>Instead of giving into the temptation of our times to be a crybaby, <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/clicks.aweber.com\/y\/ct\/?l=6Ladg&amp;m=3XTsp_F7Ki4pX98&amp;b=a4RR_oPzoZ74oFRf6ZP8XQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elfenbein issued a refreshing response<\/a><\/strong>\u00a0to the unfair characterization. Wall Street and the world need more class acts like him.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re looking to consistently outperform the market, I recommend you consider his ETF.<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: I get zero, zip, zilch, nada for recommending it \u2014 other than the satisfaction of knowing you can\u2019t go wrong trusting your hard-earned capital to such a stand-up guy.<\/p>\n<p>Ahead of the tape,<\/p>\n<p>Louis Basenese<br \/>\nChief Investment Strategist, <em>Wall Street Daily<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\/2017\/07\/21\/friday-charts-two-suckers-bets-one-sure-thing\/\" rel=\"nofollow\">Friday Charts: Two Sucker\u2019s Bets and One Sure Thing<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wallstreetdaily.com\" rel=\"nofollow\">Wall Street Daily<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By WallStreetDaily.com Equal-opportunity humiliation. The surest bet in the market. Get the Champagne\u2026 Also recommended: All it takes is $20. It\u2019s Friday in the Wall Street Daily nation. Per our weekly routine, we\u2019re ditching our commentary-based articles in favor of a graphical representation of the week\u2019s most important economic and investment news. This week, we\u2019re [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-109382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109382"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109382\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":109390,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109382\/revisions\/109390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}