{"id":106984,"date":"2017-06-06T09:41:21","date_gmt":"2017-06-06T13:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=106984"},"modified":"2017-06-06T09:41:21","modified_gmt":"2017-06-06T13:41:21","slug":"how-will-the-financial-markets-react-to-the-uk-election-result-four-different-scenarios","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/06\/how-will-the-financial-markets-react-to-the-uk-election-result-four-different-scenarios\/","title":{"rendered":"How will the financial markets react to the UK election result? Four different scenarios"},"content":{"rendered":"
June 6, 2017<\/div>
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By George Prior<\/strong><\/p>\n

The British pound will come under intense pressure, UK-focused stocks will weaken, gilt prices will rise\u00a0and capital markets will experience significant volatility after the UK\u2019s general election.<\/p>\n

These are the warnings from a leading global analyst at one of the world\u2019s largest financial services organizations.<\/p>\n

Tom Elliott, deVere Group\u2019s International Investment Strategist, sets out his predictions and the likely consequences for the UK election, taking place Thursday (June 8).<\/p>\n

His four scenarios come as the gap between the Conservatives and Labour, the two major parties, has continued to narrow in recent days. \u00a0The latest poll from YouGov has the Conservative lead at just four points over Labour, while ICM has it standing at 11 points.<\/p>\n

Mr Elliott comments: \u201cI believe that there\u2019s a 55 per cent chance that the Conservatives will have a majority of \u200ebelow 60. \u00a0Should this happen, sterling would wobble, and would fall sharply if that majority is below 40 and Theresa May is again beholden to the hard Brexit lobby of Tory MPs. FTSE 100 would rally as sterling falls, UK-focused stocks weaken and gilt prices would rise (and yields fall) in anticipation of a weaker economy. \u00a0Anything below 25 and Mrs May’s job would be on the line, with a leadership contest beckoning. Sterling would then fall further as the risk of a hard Brexit PM, such as David Davis, is priced in.\u00a0 Capital markets would become very volatile.\u201d<\/p>

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He continues: \u201cA Conservative majority of over 60 – from the current 17 -I believe has a 25 per cent chance of occurring. \u00a0\u200eSuch a majority would vindicate her decision to call an election, and give her a large enough majority to effectively ignore the estimated 30 or so conservative MPs who want as hard a Brexit as possible. Sterling would rally as the prospect of Mrs May doing a soft Brexit deal rises, short term gilts would fall in price (and yields rise) as the prospect for the economy improves. On the stock market, FTSE 100 foreign currency earning stocks would weaken as sterling rallies, but UK-focused stocks would rally as prospects for the economy improve. This would lead to outperformance by mid and small cap indices, compared to FTSE 100.<\/p>\n

Mr Elliott goes on to say: \u201cI estimate that there\u2019s a 15 per cent chance of no parliamentary majority. A Labour\/Liberal Democrat pact could emerge to govern. The Lib Dems would likely ensure a soft Brexit – a Norway-like arrangement, but without free movement of people, in return for large annual payments to Brussels. But sterling, UK-focused stocks and gilt prices would all fall on the prospect of the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, becoming Prime Minister.<\/p>\n

\u201cI put a Labour majority at a 5 per cent chance. Not so different from the previous scenario as regards to impact on capital markets, though Britain\u2019s relationship to the EU would\u00a0be more distant, with fewer obligations and benefits.\u201d<\/p>\n

deVere Group\u2019s International Investment Strategist concludes: \u201cThere are a few certainties in this election, but one thing we almost know for sure is that turbulence in financial markets is likely to intensify in the short-term as Britain readjusts.\u201d<\/p>\n

deVere Group is one of the world\u2019s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.\u00a0 It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.<\/em><\/p>\n

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By George Prior The British pound will come under intense pressure, UK-focused stocks will weaken, gilt prices will rise\u00a0and capital markets will experience significant volatility after the UK\u2019s general election. These are the warnings from a leading global analyst at one of the world\u2019s largest financial services organizations. Tom Elliott, deVere Group\u2019s International Investment Strategist, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-106984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=106984"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106984\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":106985,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/106984\/revisions\/106985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=106984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=106984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=106984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}