{"id":103450,"date":"2017-03-15T11:03:24","date_gmt":"2017-03-15T15:03:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=103450"},"modified":"2017-03-15T09:04:26","modified_gmt":"2017-03-15T13:04:26","slug":"cocoa-technical-analysis-drought-in-south-africa-may-harm-crops","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/03\/cocoa-technical-analysis-drought-in-south-africa-may-harm-crops\/","title":{"rendered":"COCOA: Technical Analysis &#8211; Drought in South Africa may harm crops"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-4026144148\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">March 15, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">IFCMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Drought in South Africa may harm crops<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Drought in Cote-d\u2019Ivoire may harm cocoa crops. At the same time demand for cocoa beans may rise in Europe after the Swiss group ECOM acquires the German refiner Euromar Commodities GmbH. Will <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/trading-conditions\/commodities\/cocoa\">cocoa prices<\/a> continue rising?<\/p>\n<p>Previously cocoa crops were expected to rise this agricultural season in Cote-d\u2019Ivoire by about 25% to 2mln tonnes compared to season 2015\/16. This made cocoa prices slump by 40% in just 7 latest months to hit a fresh low since October 2008. Theoretically, crops forecast may be revised down on drought. Cote-d\u2019Ivoire accounts for about 36% of global cocoa production. The neighbouring Ghana accounts for another 34% where crops may also suffer on bad weather conditions. Besides lower cocoa beans supply, the demand for them may also rise in Europe. The German Euromar Commodities GmbH cut in Q4 2016 the volume of cocoa beans refinery by 10% because of financial problems. At the same time, the benchmark fell 1% in EU. After Euromar was acquired by the Swiss group ECOM, the volume of refinery may restore. As of March 7, 2017, the net shorts in cocoa at ICE exchange reached the high since 2006 when the information was published first. Their possible closure may provoke the technical price increase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: none;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/uploads\/images\/13-03-2017.png\" alt=\"Cocoa\" width=\"660px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"emailSummary\">On the daily chart <b>Cocoa: D1<\/b> surpassed the resistance of the downtrend. Further price increase is possible in case of lower crops estimates in Cote-d\u2019Ivoire and Ghana and in case of higher demand for beans in Europe.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"emailSummary\">\n<li>The <b>Parabolic indicator<\/b> gives bullish signal.<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/bolinger-bands\">Bollinger bands<\/a> have narrowed a lot which means low volatility.<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/ntx-indicators\/rsi\">RSI<\/a> is above 50, but has not yet reached the overbought zone. It has formed positive divergence.<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/ntx-indicators\/macd\">MACD<\/a> gives bullish signals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The bullish momentum may develop in case <b>cocoa<\/b> surpasses the three last fractal highs and the upper Bollinger band at 2056. This level may serve the point of entry. The initial stop-loss may be placed below the two last fractal lows, the 9-1\/2-year low and the Parabolic signal at 1860. Having opened the pending order we shall move the stop to the next fractal low following the Parabolic and Bollinger signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit\/loss ratio to the breakeven point. The most risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop-loss level at 1860 without reaching the order at 2056, we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.<\/p><div id=\"inves-1120574685\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"emailSummary\" style=\"margin-top: 15px !important;\">Summary of technical analysis<\/h2>\n<table style=\"border: solid 1px black;\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Position<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">Buy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Buy stop<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">above 2056<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Stop loss<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">below 1860<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Market Analysis provided by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">IFCMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By IFCMarkets Drought in South Africa may harm crops Drought in Cote-d\u2019Ivoire may harm cocoa crops. At the same time demand for cocoa beans may rise in Europe after the Swiss group ECOM acquires the German refiner Euromar Commodities GmbH. Will cocoa prices continue rising? Previously cocoa crops were expected to rise this agricultural season [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-103450","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103450","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=103450"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103450\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":103481,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/103450\/revisions\/103481"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=103450"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=103450"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=103450"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}