{"id":102682,"date":"2017-02-28T06:35:48","date_gmt":"2017-02-28T11:35:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=102682"},"modified":"2018-06-05T22:48:04","modified_gmt":"2018-06-05T22:48:04","slug":"cautious-mode-ahead-of-trumps-speech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/02\/cautious-mode-ahead-of-trumps-speech\/","title":{"rendered":"Cautious mode ahead of Trump\u2019s speech"},"content":{"rendered":"
February 28, 2017<\/div>
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Article by ForexTime<\/a><\/p>\n

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Currency markets are moving in a relative tight range early Tuesday, as traders prefer to sit on the sidelines and refrain from taking any big bets ahead of the U.S. President\u2019s Congressional address later today in what seems to be the key market driver for the week.<\/p>\n

Whether the risk play which sent U.S. stocks to record highs and the U.S. dollar to a 14-year high early in January will resume depends mostly on his tax agenda.<\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s promise of a \u201cphenomenal\u201d tax plan on February 9 should be translated into more details for markets not to be disappointed. For equity traders, proposed \u00a0corporate tax cuts to 20% from the current 35% will be key for stocks to continue moving higher. Meanwhile, the dollar will likely move more on signals of implementing border-adjustment tax. Although border-adjustment tax seems protectionist by nature and many fear it may lead to a trade war; it remains to be the biggest source of government revenues if implemented, and thus the dollar will benefit from it.<\/p>\n

Expectations are very high on delivering some concrete plans this time and if President Trump fails to do so, many investors will be ready to push the sell button.<\/p>\n

From the monetary perspective, fed officials seem to be achieving what they\u2019re aiming for, which is making markets accept the fact that a rate hike might come as soon as March. According to Bloomberg\u2019s interest rate probability tool, chances of a rate hike increased to 50% from 34% a week ago, however CME\u2019s Fedwatch tool is indicating only a 31% chance of a rate increase and this explains why the dollar didn\u2019t respond strongly.<\/p>\n

On the data front, U.S. Q4 GDP is expected to be revised slightly higher to 2.1% from the previous reading of 1.9%, while trade deficit is expected to widen to $66 billion.\u00a0 Chicago\u2019s PMI and the Consumer Sentiment Index are also scheduled for release today but given the big event later today, expect economic data to have little or no impact on markets.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Disclaimer: <\/strong>The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and\/or other investment advice and\/or an offer of and\/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and\/or a guarantee and\/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.<\/em><\/p>\n

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\"Forex-Time-Logo\"Article by ForexTime<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM)<\/strong> is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185\/12 www.forextime.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Article by ForexTime Currency markets are moving in a relative tight range early Tuesday, as traders prefer to sit on the sidelines and refrain from taking any big bets ahead of the U.S. President\u2019s Congressional address later today in what seems to be the key market driver for the week. Whether the risk play which […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102682"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102682\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":127854,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102682\/revisions\/127854"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}