{"id":102255,"date":"2017-02-17T07:28:09","date_gmt":"2017-02-17T12:28:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=102255"},"modified":"2017-02-17T07:28:09","modified_gmt":"2017-02-17T12:28:09","slug":"eurusd-correction-expected-after-renewed-maximum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/02\/eurusd-correction-expected-after-renewed-maximum\/","title":{"rendered":"EUR\/USD: correction expected after renewed maximum"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1550811706\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">February 17, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p><strong>By\u00a0Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"reviews-item__content\">\n<p><strong><em>Previous:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Trading on the euro on Thursday closed in the green. The EUR\/USD rate corrected to 1.0679 on the back on a fall in US bond yields. The US statistics released were kind to the dollar, but not enough to reverse the correction. After an unsuccessful attempt to rise above 2.4868% on the back of this news, US 10-year bond yields fell to 2.4386% (-1.94%).<\/p>\n<p>A rise in bond yields increases the chances of a rate hike by the Fed, and, conversely, a fall is likely to lead to rates being slashed. According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a rate hike in March has fallen from 31% to 17%. It was this downgrading that saw bond yields fall on Thursday. Investors are unsure whether or not the rate hike in March will happen. The probability of a rate hike in June, however, has increased from 45.4% to 46.4%.<\/p>\n<p><em>US statistics:<\/em><\/p>\n<ul class=\"list list_type_disc\">\n<li>The number of US jobless claims in the week ending 11\/02 amounted to 239,000 (forecasted: 245,000, previous figure: 234,000).<\/li>\n<li>New housing starts in January came to 1.246m (forecasted: 1.227m, previous figure: 1.279m).<\/li>\n<li>The number of building permits issued in the US in January was 1.285m (forecasted: 1.230m, previous figure: 1.210m).<\/li>\n<li>The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey saw the index rise to 43.3, up from the previous value of 23.6.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><em>Market expectations:<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The EUR\/USD rate has found an equilibrium point at 1.0675 despite the balance line on the hourly timeframe running through the 1.0616 mark. Given that from a technical standpoint, US 10-year bond yields are expected to fall further, I&#8217;m expecting the euro to jump to around 1.0689 when trading opens in Europe. If the EUR\/GBP cross rises, this could further increase to 1.0701. Once a new high has been reached, in the second half of the day, cyclical analysis points to a weakening of the euro. The scale of this correction will again depend on the dynamics of US bonds.<\/p><div id=\"inves-1087308684\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<p><strong><em>Day&#8217;s news (GMT+3):<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>12:00 Eurozone: current account (Dec);<\/li>\n<li>12:30 UK: retail sales (Jan);<\/li>\n<li>16:30 Canada: foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Dec);<\/li>\n<li>18:00 USA: CB leading indicator (Jan);<\/li>\n<li>21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.alpari.ru\/data\/media\/trunk\/images\/Analytics\/2017\/02\/eur_170217.png\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"center\">EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView<\/p>\n<p>Intraday forecast: low: 1.0653, high: 1.0690 (1.0701 if the EUR\/GBP cross rises), close; 1.0665.<\/p>\n<p>My predictions for the euro on Thursday came off in terms of growth. The euro received strong support from a fall in US bond yields as well as from growth on the EUR\/GBP cross.<\/p>\n<p>The euro&#8217;s strengthening against the dollar slowed down around the 135<sup>th<\/sup> degree at 1.0675. From there, after a rise in bond yields, the rate rebounded, but subsequently restored by the end of the session.<\/p>\n<p>Trading on the pair has now been showing a bullish trend for several hours under the 1.0675 mark. The thing is that the euro has corrected by 76.4% from 1.0714 to 1.0521 and by 50.0% from 1.0829 to 1.0521. When several levels coincide from various methods of analysis, the strength of the support level increases. I&#8217;m forecasting a rise to 1.0690 followed by a fall to 1.0653. The euro could fall immediately given that the Stochastic indicator is reversing downwards. However, this is a relatively weak signal.<\/p>\n<p>On the chart I&#8217;ve drawn two 45 degree marks. The first was calculated from a maximum of 1.0679, and the second from 1.0690. If the cross falls on the back of a rising dollar, you should look at the targets below the 45<sup>th<\/sup> degree. Don&#8217;t forget to keep an eye on US 10-year bonds, since a fall in yields will prevent the euro from weakening.<\/p>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\">Source: &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/alpari.com\/en\/analytics\/reviews\/market_sessions\/18288_17022017\/\">EUR\/USD: correction expected after renewed maximum<\/a>&#8220;<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"s_invisible_yes\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By\u00a0Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari Previous: Trading on the euro on Thursday closed in the green. The EUR\/USD rate corrected to 1.0679 on the back on a fall in US bond yields. The US statistics released were kind to the dollar, but not enough to reverse the correction. After an unsuccessful attempt to rise above 2.4868% on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102255","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102255","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102255"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102255\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":102256,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102255\/revisions\/102256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102255"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102255"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102255"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}