{"id":101975,"date":"2017-02-10T08:08:05","date_gmt":"2017-02-10T13:08:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=101975"},"modified":"2017-02-10T08:08:05","modified_gmt":"2017-02-10T13:08:05","slug":"vix-cycles-set-to-explode-in-marchapril-2017-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/02\/vix-cycles-set-to-explode-in-marchapril-2017-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"VIX Cycles Set to Explode in March\/April 2017 \u2013 Part 1"},"content":{"rendered":"
February 10, 2017<\/div>
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By\u00a0Chris Vermeulen,\u00a0www.ActiveTradingPartners.com<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

My recent analysis of the markets has shown what I believe to be an explosion in market volatility set to starting happening between February 21, 2017 and March 30, 2017.\u00a0 The historical VIX cycles have been running about 18~22 week intervals for expansion and extreme volatility levels.\u00a0 The period August 2015 to January 2016 represented roughly 5 months.\u00a0 The period between January 2016 to June 2016 represented roughly 5 months.\u00a0 The period between June 2016 to Early November 2016 represented roughly 5 months (just a little short of 5 months in reality).<\/p>\n

The period between November 2016 to the next volatility expansion phase, if this cycle continues, should be March\/April 2107 at a target date range.<\/p>\n

\"2017-calendar-1468440983V9p\"<\/p>\n

How will this relate to the US major markets?\u00a0 I currently believe the recent \u201cmelt-up\u201d will stay in place until we have some catalyst that will change the direction of the markets.\u00a0 In other words, the path of least resistance in the US major markets is upward right now \u2013 at least till something changes that direction\/sentiment. The VIX cycles may be related to some catalyst event or external foreign market event that could change the major market directions \u2013 nut only time will tell.<\/p>\n

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\"VIX_Weekly\"<\/p>\n

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Currently, on the below DIA chart, I can state that my estimates for upside resistance is 210~212 based on historical price action.\u00a0 The reason I believe these levels will become upside target objectives is based on my understanding of price rotation, expansion and contraction as well as Fibonacci ratios.\u00a0 The actual number that I believe will be resistance is 211.63 and I believe this level will be reached in March 2017 or early April 2017.<\/p>\n

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\"DIA_Weekly\"<\/p>\n

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Once this critical resistance level is reached in the DIA, then all bets are off in terms of the price retracement\/rotation that may occur.\u00a0 Given historical price rotation as examples, I would estimate that the DIA could retrace a minimum of 6~8% ($13 to $17).\u00a0 A moderate price rotation would equate to a move of 10%~13.5% ($21 to $28).\u00a0 Beyond these expected levels of support, all bets are off in terms of downside potential.\u00a0 The closest major downside support levels are $178.25, $170.30 and $154.35 \u2013 these levels represent a greater than 15% total price retracement and would put us dangerously close to \u201cBear Market Territory\u201d.<\/p>

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Of course, if the VIX cycles persist as I suspect, a massive increase in volatility will drive other markets into further trending or price rotation as well.\u00a0 The tech heavy NASDAQ (QQQ) has been mirroring the DIA and my projected top level is 128.15.\u00a0 Currently, the QQQ is at $126.54 \u2013 only $1.65 (or 1.33%) away from my expected peak level.\u00a0 After these peaks have been reached, I expect the major market to take pause and attempt to resume trending as we move closer to the volatility cycle period I suspect is driving the VIX (March\/April 2017).\u00a0 It is because of this that I\u2019m issuing this warning to my members to be cautious of extended risk or exposed positions as we near the end of February 2017.\u00a0 I believe the old term, \u201cBeware the ides of March\u201d, may be a harsh reality this year.<\/p>\n

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\"QQQ_Weekly\"<\/p>\n

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As I continue my extended analysis of the US major markets and commodity markets in relation to these VIX cycles, I will post \u201cPart 2\u201d of this article within a day or so.\u00a0 I wanted to get this out to all my members and associates so they were brought aware of the fact that the markets are beginning a phase of volatility expansion that should not end till near April 1st<\/sup>, 2017.<\/p>\n

In short, what does all this mean? Well, it means now is not the time to be adding new long equity position for long term growth. Going forward, its going to be all about active trading and focusing on my Momentum Reversal Method<\/a> (MRM) and trading just the hot stocks and sectors for quick oversized gains.<\/p>\n

On Feb 8th<\/sup>, myself and subscribers closed out our NUGT trade for a 112% profit that we entered December 16th<\/sup>.<\/p>\n

\"atp-nugt\"<\/p>\n

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This week we got long ERX at $33, and sold half the position 24 hours later for another quick 7.7% profit and there is still a lot of room for bigger gains there.<\/p>\n

\"erxprofit\"<\/p>\n

So, if you are looking for a simple and highly accurate pulse on the market along with timely swing trades I urge you to join my newsletter at www.ActiveTradingPartners.com<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 STAY TUNED FOR PART II\u2026<\/p>\n

Chris Vermeulen<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Chris Vermeulen,\u00a0www.ActiveTradingPartners.com\u00a0 My recent analysis of the markets has shown what I believe to be an explosion in market volatility set to starting happening between February 21, 2017 and March 30, 2017.\u00a0 The historical VIX cycles have been running about 18~22 week intervals for expansion and extreme volatility levels.\u00a0 The period August 2015 to January […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101975"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101975\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101976,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101975\/revisions\/101976"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}