{"id":101663,"date":"2017-02-03T09:24:10","date_gmt":"2017-02-03T14:24:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=101663"},"modified":"2017-02-03T06:29:54","modified_gmt":"2017-02-03T11:29:54","slug":"friday-charts-apple-pops-the-death-of-volatility-and-fitbits-tragic-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/02\/friday-charts-apple-pops-the-death-of-volatility-and-fitbits-tragic-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Friday Charts: Apple Pops, the Death of Volatility, and Fitbit\u2019s Tragic End"},"content":{"rendered":"
February 3, 2017<\/div>
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By WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> \"Friday<\/p>\n

If you missed our announcement last week, you\u2019re in for a treat today.<\/p>\n

Every Friday, we\u2019re ditching the longwinded analysis in exchange for several carefully selected charts to sum up the week\u2019s most important market-moving events.<\/p>\n

After all, a picture is supposed to be worth a thousand words, right?<\/p>\n

This week, all three charts underscore why it pays to be a contrarian. Take heed!<\/p>\n

Apple Resurrects the Dead<\/h2>\n

For months, we endured an endless drumbeat of death pronouncements for the most iconic consumer electronic device in history \u2014 the iPhone.<\/p>

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During this period, I told True Alpha<\/em> readers to buck the dire warnings and scoop up long-dated options in Apple Inc. (AAPL). And now they\u2019re glad they did, as the reports of the iPhone\u2019s death proved wildly exaggerated.<\/p>\n

On Tuesday, the company revealed it sold 78.3 million iPhones in the holiday quarter. That topped analysts\u2019 expectations for 76 million and <\/em>the company\u2019s record of 74.8 million.<\/p>\n

I was fortunate enough to join CNBC\u2019s Closing Bell<\/em><\/strong><\/a> to provide instant reactions to the results<\/strong><\/a>. Or you can follow me on Twitter<\/strong><\/a> for ongoing updates.<\/p>\n

The main takeaway? It\u2019s all about the iPhone\u2026 and iPhone sales growth has been resurrected. Hallelujah!<\/p>\n

\"Quarterly<\/p>\n

Of course, the better-than-expected results led 10 analysts to raise their price targets, which in turn reinvigorated bulls, who promptly bid up shares to a new 52-week high.<\/p>\n

And now True Alpha<\/em> readers are sitting on a 43% gain in their options. Proof positive that being a contrarian pays. (Go here<\/strong><\/a> for details on becoming a True Alpha member.)<\/p>\n

Another One-Hit Wonder Bites the Dust<\/h2>\n

While Apple\u2019s riding high, another tech company\u2019s hitting fresh lows \u2014 Fitbit (FIT).<\/p>\n

Why? Because no one really needs a(nother) Fitbit. Or more specifically, holiday sales came up short of expectations, which forced the company to slash guidance and its workforce by 6%.<\/p>\n

\u201cTo address this reduction in growth and what we believe is a temporary slowdown and transition period, we are taking clear steps to reduce operating costs,\u201d said CEO James Park.<\/p>\n

\u201cTemporary slowdown\u201d? Clearly, he\u2019s in denial.<\/p>\n

Just like GoPro (GPRO) before it, Fitbit\u2019s business and stock are trapped in the one-hit wonder death spiral. The stock\u2019s down a staggering 89% from its IPO peak.<\/p>\n

\"Fitbit<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t say I didn\u2019t warn you, though.<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been railing against the stock<\/strong><\/a> ever since it began trading. And I kept up the warnings even when analysts, particularly SunTrust\u2019s Bob Peck, were continually pounding the table for investors to \u201cbuy the dips<\/strong><\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even after the precipitous fall, I still wouldn\u2019t remotely recommend buying the stock. Hint: You shouldn\u2019t either!<\/p>\n

Who, Me? Nervous?<\/h2>\n

Consider this the most unexpected outcome of the presidential election: While political anxiety is spiking, volatility has all but disappeared.<\/p>\n

In the last week, the VIX volatility index dropped to its lowest level since 2014.<\/p>\n

\"10<\/p>\n

Even more amazing, as Bespoke Investment Group points out, since Donald Trump won the election, the VIX hasn\u2019t closed above 15. That\u2019s almost 60 days (and counting).<\/p>\n

As a frame of reference, any VIX reading below 20 used to be considered low.<\/p>\n

So what happens when volatility dies? Simple \u2014 stocks rise.<\/p>\n

Bespoke found that in the six months following a period of at least 50 days with a VIX reading below 15, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of 4.1%, with positive returns eight out of 10 times.<\/p>\n

If we go one year out, the S&P 500 averaged a gain of 10.5% with \u2014 get this! \u2014 positive returns nine out of 10 times.<\/p>\n

Translation: While you might be anxious politically, don\u2019t let that unduly influence your investing decisions. As contrarian as it might sound, the data point to higher prices ahead.<\/p>\n

Ahead of the tape,<\/p>\n

Louis Basenese
\nInvestment Director, Wall Street Daily<\/em><\/p>\n

The post Friday Charts: Apple Pops, the Death of Volatility, and Fitbit\u2019s Tragic End<\/a> appeared first on Wall Street Daily<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By WallStreetDaily.com If you missed our announcement last week, you\u2019re in for a treat today. Every Friday, we\u2019re ditching the longwinded analysis in exchange for several carefully selected charts to sum up the week\u2019s most important market-moving events. After all, a picture is supposed to be worth a thousand words, right? This week, all three […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101663","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101663","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101663"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101663\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101670,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101663\/revisions\/101670"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101663"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101663"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101663"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}