{"id":101021,"date":"2017-01-20T07:06:02","date_gmt":"2017-01-20T12:06:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=101021"},"modified":"2017-01-20T07:06:02","modified_gmt":"2017-01-20T12:06:02","slug":"coffee-technical-analysis-lower-brazilian-coffee-crop-estimates-support-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/01\/coffee-technical-analysis-lower-brazilian-coffee-crop-estimates-support-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"COFFEE: Technical Analysis &#8211; Lower Brazilian coffee crop estimates support prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"inves-1694326714\" class=\"inves-below-title-posts inves-entity-placement\"><div id =\"posts_date_custom\"><div align=\"left\">January 20, 2017<\/div><hr style=\"border: none; border-bottom: 3px solid black;\">\r\n<\/div><\/div><p>By <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">IFCMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Lower Brazilian coffee crop estimates support prices<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Coffee output forecast of Brazilian official crop bureau estimates output this year may fall to 2015 levels. Will <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/market-data\/coffee\"> coffee prices <\/a> continue rising?<\/p>\n<p>The official Brazilian crop bureau Conab forecasts country\u2019s coffee production this year may fall to levels of 2015 due to a natural factor such as alternate lower yield after higher production years as well as fertilizer shortages. It estimates output in the range 43.7m-47.5m 60 kilogram bags, a decline of at least 3.9m bags from last year&#8217;s record crop, in its first forecast this year. The harvest in 2015 was the lowest in six years due to a drought. Hedge funds increased net long bets on coffee for first time since November: holdings for arabica coffee surged 60% to 13565 futures and options in the week ended January 10, according to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This is bullish for coffee prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-top: 20px;\"><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"float: none;\" src=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/uploads\/images\/Coffee_20Jan2017.png\" alt=\"COFFEE\" width=\"660px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"emailSummary\">On the daily chart <b> COFFEE:D1 <\/b>is consolidating after retracing to six-week high on January 12. It bounced off the 50-day moving average MA(50) having breached above it two weeks ago.<\/p>\n<ul class=\"emailSummary\">\n<li>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/ntx-indicators\/parabolic\">Parabolic indicator<\/a> gives a buy signal.<\/li>\n<li>The <b>Donchian channel <\/b>is tilted upward, indicating an uptrend.<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/ntx-indicators\/macd\"> MACD indicator <\/a> is rising and the gap with the signal line is widening, which is a bullish signal.<\/li>\n<li>The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/en\/ntx-indicators\/stochastic\"> stochastic oscillator <\/a> is falling, edging down from the oversold zone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>We believe the bullish momentum will continue after the price crosses above the last fractal high at 152.69, confirmed also by the upper Donchian bound. It can be used as an entry point for a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the Parabolic signal at 144.01. After placing the pending order the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit\/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop-loss level (144.01) without reaching the order (152.69) we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.<\/p><div id=\"inves-2021823823\" class=\"inves-in-content inves-entity-placement\"><hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads_header\">\r\n<p style=\"font-size:10px; float:left; color:#666;\">Free Reports:<\/p><\/div>\r\n<div id=\"inpost_ads\"> \r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/graph_techs_PD.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t     <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/1ApBOV\"><b><u>Get Our Free Metatrader 4 Indicators<\/u><\/b><\/a> - Put Our Free MetaTrader 4 Custom Indicators on your charts when you join our Weekly Newsletter<\/p><br><br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<p style=\"font-size:15px; float:left;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/investmacro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/cot_pie_80.png\" align=\"left\" width=\"80\"  height=\"55\"\/><\/a>\r\n\t    <a href=\"https:\/\/goo.gl\/f3RrHX\"><b><u>Get our Weekly Commitment of Traders Reports<\/u><\/b><\/a> - See where the biggest traders (Hedge Funds and Commercial Hedgers) are positioned in the futures markets on a weekly basis.<\/p><br><br>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<hr style=\"border: 1px solid #ddd;\">\r\n<br><\/div>\n<h2 class=\"emailSummary\" style=\"margin-top: 15px !important;\">Technical Analysis Summary<\/h2>\n<table style=\"border: solid 1px black;\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" align=\"left\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Position<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">Buy<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Buy stop<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">Above 152.69<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\"><b>Stop loss<\/b><\/td>\n<td align=\"left\" valign=\"top\">Below 144.01<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Market Analysis provided by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ifcmarkets.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">IFCMarkets<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By IFCMarkets Lower Brazilian coffee crop estimates support prices Coffee output forecast of Brazilian official crop bureau estimates output this year may fall to 2015 levels. Will coffee prices continue rising? The official Brazilian crop bureau Conab forecasts country\u2019s coffee production this year may fall to levels of 2015 due to a natural factor such [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-101021","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101021","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=101021"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101021\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":101032,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/101021\/revisions\/101032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=101021"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=101021"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=101021"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}