{"id":100527,"date":"2017-01-09T11:04:22","date_gmt":"2017-01-09T16:04:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/countingpips.com\/?p=100527"},"modified":"2018-07-23T15:56:04","modified_gmt":"2018-07-23T19:56:04","slug":"will-driverless-cars-kill-their-masters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/2017\/01\/will-driverless-cars-kill-their-masters\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Driverless Cars Kill Their Masters?"},"content":{"rendered":"
January 9, 2017<\/div>
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By WallStreetDaily.com<\/u><\/a> \"Will<\/p>\n

The intersection of ride-sharing algorithms, self-driving cars, and artificial intelligence is a great metaphor for the food chain. There\u2019s always a bigger fish.<\/strong><\/i><\/p>\n

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One thing\u2019s for sure: Art will suffer without New York City\u2019s taxi fleet.<\/p>\n

Imagine a world without Taxi Driver<\/em>. \u201cYou talkin\u2019 to me?\u201d<\/p>\n

And Taxi<\/em> is at least one of the best 50 sitcoms in U.S. television history. Ever see the episode where Alex\u2019s dog dies?<\/p>\n

But, \u201cprogress,\u201d and art is no enemy of that.<\/p>

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So now we know \u2014 or think we know \u2014 that \u201c3,000 four-passenger cars could serve 98% of taxi demand in New York City, with an average wait time of only 2.7 minutes.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the major finding of a new algorithm developed by a team at the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL).<\/p>\n

It\u2019s enough to basically kill NYC\u2019s more than 13,000-strong taxi fleet.<\/p>\n

But it would also virtually eliminate road congestion in Gotham, and save billions of dollars by reducing fuel costs and cutting time spent in traffic.<\/p>\n

So it\u2019s also, basically, one big validation of\/advertisement for ride-sharing services Uber and Lyft, which are working on ways to get strangers to use their respective services \u2014 together.<\/p>\n

UberPool and Lyft Line offer users the opportunity to get where they need to go for a reduced fare.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s next-level \u201cgig economy\u201d stuff.<\/p>\n

The next next level for Uber and Lyft would eliminate the \u201cgig\u201d part \u2014 unless you\u2019re an AI.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So now we know \u2014 or think we know \u2014 that \u201c3,000 four-passenger cars could serve 98% of taxi demand in New York City, with an average wait time of only 2.7 minutes.\u201d<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

Last week\u2019s Computer Electronics Show in Las Vegas highlighted a lot of future tech, including 5G wireless connectivity, a bendable lithium-ion battery for internet of things (IoT) devices, and ultrathin \u201cwallpaper\u201d OLED TVs.<\/p>\n

There was also some IoT stuff that\u2019s probably a little too smart for its own good<\/strong><\/a>, including a hairbrush, an insole, and a toaster.<\/p>\n

\u201cSmart,\u201d however, is the major buzzword. And these days, nothing\u2019s \u201csmarter\u201d than the combination of artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles.<\/p>\n

Right now we\u2019re working with Level 2 (\u201cPartial Automation\u201d) and Level 3 (\u201cConditional Automation\u201d) self-driving tech, according to SAE International\u2019s new standards.<\/p>\n

These are the types of systems that result in first-timers experiencing \u201charrowing as hell\u201d self-driving car rides, or that require not one but two humans \u2014 \u201cone ready to grab the wheel and the other on the lookout for pedestrians\u201d \u2014 to supervise them.<\/p>\n

(As FT Alphaville\u2019s Kadhim Shubber notes after citing Bloomberg, \u201cOn the one hand, going from one driver to two doesn\u2019t seem like progress. On the other hand, at least they\u2019re employees.\u201d)<\/p>\n

Uber\u2019s system, in particular, includes \u201ca flaw in the programming that advocates feared could have deadly consequences for cyclists,\u201d says the MIT lab.<\/p>\n

Fixes are on the way.<\/p>\n

They better be: According to Uber co-founder and CEO Travis Kalanick, developing an autonomous vehicle \u201cis basically existential for us.\u201d<\/p>\n

Among the 500 or so auto tech companies in attendance at CES 2017, perhaps none made more of an impression than Nvidia Corp.<\/strong> (NVDA), whose CEO, Jen-Hsun Huang, described a self-driving car that his company is developing in partnership with Audi AG<\/strong> (AUDVF).<\/p>\n

According to Audi of America CEO Scott Keogh, \u201cWe\u2019re talking highly automated cars, operating\u00a0in numerous conditions, in 2020.\u201d<\/p>\n

As IEEE Spectrum\u2019s Philip E. Ross reports, \u201cA prototype based on Audi\u2019s Q7 car was, as he spoke, driving itself around the lot beside the convention center, he added.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to Audi of America CEO Scott Keogh, \u201cWe\u2019re talking highly automated cars, operating\u00a0in numerous conditions, in 2020.\u201d<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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\u201cThis implies,\u201d writes Ross, that \u201cthe Audi-Nvidia car will\u00a0have \u2018Level 4<\/strong>\u2018 capability, needing no human being to supervise it or take the wheel on short notice, at least not\u00a0under \u2018numerous\u2019 road\u00a0conditions. So maybe it won\u2019t do\u00a0cross-country moose chases in snowy climes.\u201d<\/p>\n

Tesla Motors Inc.<\/strong> (TSLA), among others, is competing in the \u201ctruly autonomous\u201d space too, and it has more than 1.3 billion miles of data from its Autopilot system, built into every one of the cars it\u2019s produced since October 2014, to inform its tech.<\/p>\n

What Nvidia and Audi have done, as Ross notes, is put a hard-and-fast deadline on their project.<\/p>\n

By 2020, \u201cthe computational muscle\u201d of Nvidia\u2019s graphics processing units (GPUs), developed over decades for gaming applications, will flower in its Xavier system.<\/p>\n

Writes Ross:<\/p>\n

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\u201c[Xavier] has\u00a0eight high-end CPU cores, 512 of our next-gen GPUs,\u201d Huang said. \u201cIt has the performance of a high-end PC\u00a0shrunk onto a tiny chip, [with] teraflop operation, at just 30 watts.\u201d By teraflop,\u00a0he meant 30 of them:\u00a030 trillion operations per second, 15 times as much as the 2015 machine could handle.<\/p>\n

That power is used in deep learning, the software technique that has transformed pattern recognition and other applications in the past three years. Deep learning uses a hierarchy of processing layers that\u00a0make sense of a\u00a0mass\u00a0of data by organizing it into progressively more meaningful chunks.<\/p>\n

For instance, it might begin in the lowest layer of processing by tracing a line of pixels to infer an edge. It might proceed up to the next layer up by combining edges to construct features, like a nose or an eyebrow. In the next higher layer, it might notice a face, and in a still higher one, it might compare that face to a database of faces to identify a person. Presto, and you have facial recognition, a long-standing\u00a0bugbear of AI.<\/p>\n

And if you can recognize faces, why not do the same for cars, sign posts, roadsides and pedestrians?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So self-driving cars could kill Uber and Lyft. <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

<\/p>\n

Ride-sharing apps like UberPool and Lyft Line could theoretically kill New York City\u2019s taxi service (No more Travis Bickle, no more \u201cWizard.\u201d No more Alex Reiger, no more Jim Ignatowski \u2014 which is not, in fact, \u201cStarchild\u201d spelled backward).<\/p>\n

But eliminating drivers destroys one half of Uber\u2019s and Lyft\u2019s \u201ctwo-sided market,\u201d as described by Ben Thompson of Stratechery.<\/p>\n

So self-driving cars could kill Uber and Lyft.<\/p>\n

But \u201cprogress.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Upticks, Downticks<\/h2>\n

\"Uptick\" The Russell 2000 posted a total return of 19.41% for 2016. That\u2019s the best year since 2013 (37.0%) and the seventh-best annual performance since 1997. The 20-year average total return is 9.91%. We\u2019re off to a positive start through the first four trading sessions of 2017, with the main small-cap benchmark up 0.7%.<\/p>\n

\"Downtick\" Congress is back in session.<\/p>\n

\"Uptick\" Congress is going to make a run at passing \u201cAudit the Fed\u201d legislation, according to The Hill<\/em><\/strong><\/a>, helping us shed the myth that the Federal Reserve is in any way \u201cindependent\u201d of political influence. There\u2019s a term for what ails the Fed: \u201cRegulatory capture,\u201d which describes the central bank\u2019s political relationship with the banks for which it acts as the bank and is supposed to supervise.<\/p>\n

\"Downtick\" According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories declined by 7.1 million barrels during the week ended December 30, 2016, exceeding a consensus forecast of a 2.2 million barrel decrease. As Reuters reports, \u201cSome of the drawdown, analysts said, is attributable to year-end tax considerations, as refiners use up crude that is on hand to avoid facing higher taxes for larger inventories.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Uptick\" Final data sets for 2016 suggest the U.S. economy, as reflected by employment trends, remains on decent footing. The Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 28,000, to a seasonally adjusted 235,000 for the week ended December 31, 2016. That\u2019s actually an all-time low for weekly initial claims. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 156,000 jobs in December. Hourly wages grew by 2.9% in 2016, the fastest pace in seven years. Unemployment ticked up to 4.7% from 4.6%, as more people re-entered the labor force.<\/p>\n

\"Downtick\" President-elect Trump owes a lot \u2014 literally \u2014 to Wall Street. According to analysis conducted by The Wall Street Journal<\/em><\/strong><\/a>, \u201cmore than 150 institutions\u201d hold debt of businesses connected to Donald Trump totaling \u201cmore than $1 billion.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Uptick\" As Eddy Elfenbein of Crossing Wall Street reports<\/strong><\/a>, the S&P 500 posted its 27th consecutive quarter of dividend growth during the final three months of 2016. The group increased its collective payout by 5.95%, the fastest growth rate of the year.<\/p>\n

\"Downtick\"Yes, within the prevailing parlance, this is a \u201chate crime.\u201d<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\"Uptick\" \u201cRemittances to Mexico spike in anticipation of Donald Trump\u2019s wall<\/strong><\/a>,\u201d notes The Economist\u2019s<\/em> Graphic Detail team.<\/p>\n

\"Downtick\" On one hand, David Byrne seems like a d*ck for not getting back together with Jerry Harrison, Chris Frantz and Tina Weymouth. On the other hand, it\u2019s refreshing that he doesn\u2019t want to simply cash in on some nostalgia tour, like so many other rock \u2018n\u2019 roll icons. But ultimately, it sounds like there\u2019ll still be no new Talking Heads music or tour in the near future<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Smart Investing,<\/p>\n

David Dittman
\nEditorial Director, Wall Street Daily<\/i><\/p>\n

The post Will Driverless Cars Kill Their Masters?<\/a> appeared first on Wall Street Daily<\/a>.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By WallStreetDaily.com The intersection of ride-sharing algorithms, self-driving cars, and artificial intelligence is a great metaphor for the food chain. There\u2019s always a bigger fish. One thing\u2019s for sure: Art will suffer without New York City\u2019s taxi fleet. Imagine a world without Taxi Driver. \u201cYou talkin\u2019 to me?\u201d And Taxi is at least one of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-100527","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","no-post-thumbnail"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100527"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100527\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":130676,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100527\/revisions\/130676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.investmacro.com\/forex\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}