InvestMacro

By Orbex

Gold

It’s been a volatile week for gold prices with strong moves in both directions. Prices traded up to just shy of last week’s multi-year highs, before closing back near the middle of the week’s range.

Gold prices were initially heavily lower on the week as the market reacted to the Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit over the weekend. The two leaders agreed to re-start the trade talks which broke down in May when Trump unexpectedly announced a tariff increase from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

Alongside the decision to recommit to negotiations, Trump also said that he would not be tariffing the remaining $300 billion of Chinese goods entering the US each year. This went back on what he had previously threatened to do. However, the big surprise was Trump’s apparent U-turn over the Huawei ban.

The President signaled that he will once again allow US companies to deal with Huawei. The markets have taken this as a strong sign of his commitment to achieving a trade deal this time around.

Equities roared higher in response to the news which, along with some strength in USD, saw gold prices weighed on as safe haven flows dried up.

However, over the week, that upside momentum faded a little. Gold prices saw a strong reversal higher in response to weak US manufacturing and a soft non-manufacturing number.  For now, the prospect of Fed easing over the coming months is keeping gold prices supported. The market is now pricing in a .25% rate cut for the July meeting.

Gold prices continue to oscillate between the 1392.20 level and the 1434.59 region. The recent failure to break above the latter level on the second attempt presents the risk of a double top formation. This could be confirmed on a break below the 1381.81 lows, paving the way for a deeper correction lower in gold. While above this level, focus is on further upside. Bulls are looking for a break above the 1434.59 level next.

Silver

Silver prices have had an equally tumultuous week. Prices tracked the moves in gold to make attempts in both directions. They then settled back into the middle of the weekly range.

Silver has been well supported over the last month given the rise in expectations of a summer Fed cut, which has weighed on USD.

The deterioration in trade relations between the US and China over the last month has also supported silver. However, with the resuming negotiations, there is the prospect that silver could be dragged lower. It could track gold, as safe haven flows weaken.

Silver prices have potentially put in a lower high against the recent 15.5540 level, which could see a move lower back towards the 14.9161 level. If this level holds as support, focus will remain on further upside in the near term. The 15.6350 – 15.7340 zone is the key zone to break. A break above this region could signal the start of a much longer-term shift in silver prices. Alternatively, a break back below the 14.9161 level could see a run back down to the 2019 lows around 14.3321.

By Orbex

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.12776
• Open: 1.12833
• % chg. over the last day: +0.07
• Day’s range: 1.12755– 1.12877
• 52 wk range: 1.1111 – 1.2009

Majors were calm yesterday and there is no defined trend yet. Trading activity and volatility were reduced due to the celebration of the US Independence Day. At the moment, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating. Financial market participants took a wait-and-see position before the publication of the report on the US labor market in June, which may affect the Fed’s views on the further pace of monetary policy adjustment. The key trading range is 1.12750-1.13100. We recommend to open positions from these marks.

At 15:30 (GMT + 3: 00) we expect labor statistics in the United States.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is located near the 0 mark.

Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.12750, 1.12400, 1.12000
• Resistance levels: 1.13100, 1.13500, 1.13900

If the price consolidates below 1.12750, the EUR/USD quotes are expected to fall to 1.12300-1.12000.

An alternative could be the growth of the EUR/USD currency pair to 1.13500-1.13800.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.25647
• Open: 1.25763
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08
• Day’s range: 1.25735 – 1.25848
• 52 wk range: 1.2438 – 1.3631

The technical picture on the GBP/USD currency pair is still ambiguous. Sterling is in lateral movement. The key support and resistance levels are: 1.25600 and 1.26000, respectively. Investors expect US labor statistics for June. We recommend to pay attention to the difference between the actual and predicted values of the indicators. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 05.07.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA.

The MACD histogram is near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the% K line crossed the% D line. At the moment, there are no accurate signals.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.25600, 1.25300, 1.25000
• Resistance levels: 1.26000, 1.26350, 1.26650

If the price consolidates below 1.25600, the quotes can drop to 1.25300-1.25000.

Alternatively the quotes can grow toward 1.26400-1.26600.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.30595
• Open: 1.30492
• % chg. over the last day: -0.06
• Day’s range: 1.30438 – 1.30665
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

The USD/CAD has stabilized after a long fall. CAD is trading in a flat, the following key support and resistance levels can be identified: 1.30400 and 1.30800, respectively. USD/CAD quotes are likely recover. Investors expect labor market reports in the US and Canada. We also recommend to pay attention to the dynamics of oil prices. Positions must be opened from key levels.

At 15:30 (GMT + 3: 00) statistics on the labor market of Canada will be published.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is close to 50 MA, which at the moment is a strong dynamic resistance.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, but above the signal line, which gives a weak signal to sell USD/CAD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is near the overbought zone, the% K line crossed the% D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.30400, 1.30000
• Resistance levels: 1.30800, 1.31150, 1.31450

If the price consolidates above 1.30800, correction to 1.31150-1.31400 is expected.

An alternative could be a further fall to the round level of 1.30000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 107.798
• Open: 107.811
• % chg. over the last day: +0.02
• Day’s range: 107.781 – 107.946
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The safe haven currency continues to consolidate. Unidirectional trend is not observed. The focus of the report on the US labor market in June. Currently, the local support and resistance levels are 107.700 and 108.000, respectively. We also recommend paying attention to the dynamics of the yield of US government securities. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 05.07.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price is fixed between 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is near 0.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which indicates bullish moods.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 107.700, 107.500, 107.250
• Resistance levels: 108.000, 108.200, 108.500

If the price consolidates below 107.700, the quotes are expected to fall to 107.400-107.200.

An alternative could be the growth of the USD / JPY currency pair to 108.400-108.600.

by JustForex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

The last few weeks for gold trader has been really exciting. Let face it, metals are starting to outperform us Equities late in a US stock bull market and we all know what that means. If you don’t know what I mean check out these charts!

Recently I posted an exclusive gold analysis article on Gold-Eagle.com talking about the next big moves and timing for the price of gold. Things are about to get much more exciting and life changing for those involved on the right side of the move.

In fact, in the next week, I will be sharing the absolute best way to take advantage of the gold move and it is most likely the exact opposite of what you are doing/plan to do. Recently Eric Sprott (Canadian billionaire, precious metals specialist) talked about my analysis and he touched on this gold trading strategy as well.

Ok, let’s jump into some really exciting charts showing where gold should move next based on the dollar price and my gold cycles.

USD Dollar Controls The Price Of Gold

The daily chart of the US Dollar index below shows where I think it should move in the next week. If the dollar rises it will keep the price of gold contained and possibly force it lower, which is what my gold cycle analysis system is confirming as well.

The big question is if the dollar just had this bounce and rolls over, or if the dollar continues to rise after this upside target is reached. This will control what the price of gold does in the near future.

My Price of Gold Cycle Prediction System

My custom gold cycle analysis which takes the most active cycles in the market and blends them into one line paints a clear picture of where the price of gold should move in the next few days.

While the red forecast shows a strong sell-off, keep in mind this is just the trend bias, price does not move to the levels of the cycles, but rather if the cycle is moving lower expect the price to trade sideways or lower as well during that time frame. It’s a trend guide only, not to be used for price targets.

This awesome indicator is just one of the trading tools I developed, which I use for oil, the SP500 and many other assets is what I use and share with subscribers of my trade alert newsletter.

Gold Trade Signals Made Simple

So how do we trade cycles and time the price of gold? There are infinite ways, but I have honed in two key strategies/tools I created to make things visual and simple to follow.

Below is what I currently call V9 (Velocity-9 from the show Flash I watch with my son), or maybe because of its Version 9 (It’s 9 years in the making)? Does not really matter, the point is it’s designed to identify trading signals for gold, silver, miners, indexes, etc… and it does this remarkably well.

The chart I think is self-explanatory but in short, it tells us the market trend, when to be long, short, or in cash. It further goes on to provide high probability trade trigger and price targets for both quick momentum trades and swing trades.

To take things one step further, by knowing the trend and when it’s starting to change the direction you can simply buy and hold high beta stocks or leveraged ETF’s with the market trend as an active trader/investor.

This system focuses to pull 1.2% – 2.5% out of any market it’s trading, and if you use a 2x or 3x ETF you can generate 5% – 7.5% return quickly and with little downside risk.

Food for thought, only fifteen 5% winners = 100+% return!

If you want to see this tool used on the SP500 take a look at these charts here.

Concluding Thoughts:

In short, I’m bullish on gold as mentioned in my recent Gold-Eagle.com article but in the near term, we could be in for a little choppy price action.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in metals, but stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial markets and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com

Trade idea: Short GBP/JPY

Entry: Above ¥135, Stop: ¥138.00, Target: ¥128

Have been advocating for long JPY positions for a little while now and see an opportunity building in GBP/JPY. The GBP has two very interesting dynamics going against it.

First is UK data which is continuing to deteriorate. Best example of this was the release of its ‘economic surprise’ index which collapsed to its lowest read since August 2012 (just be for Mario Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ speech). The slowdown in economic activity in the UK has seen the BoE turning decidedly dovish and has caused Mark Carney to elude to possible cuts to UK official interest rates.

The second dynamic is geo-political, the Conservative Party are due to nominate their new preferred leader in the coming weeks. Boris Johnson is favourite and has promised to
‘finalise’ Brexit even if that is a no-deal. Volatility in the GBP is clearly building.

The other side of the equation is fairly self-explanatory and my reasoning for looking at JPY longs is based on the following reasons: global economic data is softening and fast, the outlook risk assets is weakening while the probability of lower US rates and a steeper yield curve are rising all adding further pressures and will see flows to safe haven assets.

Trade risks:
– Rebound in global economics
– BoE moving back to a neutral stance
– UK political uncertainty resolving itself with a minimal amount of fuss.

Trade Idea: (Adding to) Short USD/JPY
Entry: Add to position or at or above ¥107.8, Stop: ¥108.9, Target: ¥101

Want to highlight last week’s USD/JPY call, the trade is working in our favour and actually want to add to the position. There is still plenty of opportunity here with the pair shifting back up to ¥107.7 will look to enter all the way up to ¥107.9.

The USD in my opinion actually looks very weak at this point in the cycle and even the Non- Farm Payroll won’t change that view as the Federal Reserve is looming large. The cuts are coming it’s just a question of when.

By Evan Lucas, FPMarkets.com

by JustForex

The US dollar changed slightly against a basket of major currencies. Yesterday, US financial markets were closed due to Independence Day. Investors have taken a wait-and-see position before the publication of the report on the US labor market for June. Experts expect improvement in key indicators. These statistics may have a significant impact on the Fed’s views on the future rate of monetary policy adjustments. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, more than 70% of financial market participants expect the Fed to reduce the range of key interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% -2.25% at a meeting in July. Today we also recommend paying attention to economic releases from the US.

The US currency is under pressure due to the regular statements by US President Donald Trump. The President accused China and Europe of currency manipulations again. “China and Europe playing big currency manipulation game and pumping money into their system in order to compete with USA,” Trump said on Twitter.

The “black gold” prices show negative dynamics. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $56.50 per barrel.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the US stock markets were closed due to Independence Day.

The 10-year US government bonds yield is consolidating. At the moment, the indicator is at the level of 1.95-1.96%.

– Data on the US labor market at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Employment change in Canada at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Ivey PMI in Canada at 17:00 pm (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex

By Orbex

NFPs on Watch

USD has been a little higher today ahead of the US payrolls report. The market is looking for 160k on the headline figure, up from the prior month’s 75k along with the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.6%. The consensus is also for a small uptick in average hourly earnings to 3.2% from 3.1% prior. USD index trades 96.51 last as price inches its way back towards the 97.10 level.

Euro Lower on USD Rally

EURUSD remains under pressure today as the rally in USD weighs on sentiment. Eurozone retail sales came in weaker than expected yesterday, once again highlighting the difficulties facing the ECB and likelihood of easing in the coming months. EURUSD trades 1.1262 last as price slides back towards the 1.1217 level. US employment reports later today could provide the fuel for a sharp drop if we see surprises to the upside.

Pound Still Down

GBPUSD trades with a heavy tone this morning following a sharp drop overnight. Price is now sitting back just below the 1.2559 level as the USD rally keeps price pressured. GBP remains blighted by Brexit uncertainty and political disruption on the domestic front which are both likely to keep price trading lower in the near term.

SPX500 Ends Near Highs

Risk assets have traded lower so far today, as a resurgent US dollar takes the shine out of an otherwise solid week. SPX500 traded up to fresh all-time highs this week, sitting just off them now at 2990.93 last. The prospect of a renewed effort to deliver a US/China trade deal is keeping price well supported. However, China’s demand that the US must remove all tariffs as a condition for agreeing on a deal is causing some uncertainty, weighing on equity prices here.

Safe Havens Down Despite Equities Dip

Safe havens have been softer over the final European session of the week also. Despite the moves lower in equities prices, both gold and JPY have been lower today in light of the USD rally. USDJPY trades 108.02 last, with price continuing to recover off the 107.55 level support. XAUUSD trades 1414.38 last as the retracement lower from the 1424.59 level continues.

Crude Capped Despite OPEC Extension

Oil prices have traded lower today also as the latest bullish report from the EIA has failed to keep price supported. Earlier in the week, OPEC announced an extension to the current production cuts which will continue for a further nine months. Despite the news, crude has remained weighed to the downside trading 56.64 last, though still sits above the 55.86 for now.

Commodity Currencies Weak Into Weekend

USDCAD has recovered some of its recent losses over the European morning today. However, for now, it remains below the 1.3070 support level. Weakness in oil prices, as well as a resurgent US dollar, arekeeping USDCAD supported. US and Canadian employment reports due later hold the potential to cause late volatility.

AUDUSD has been a little lower over the European morning on Friday though ends the week above the .70 level, which is an important technical development. Despite RBA rate cuts and expectations of further cuts to come, AUD is being supported by hopes around a potential US/China trade deal.

By Orbex

By Orbex

Statistics Canada will be releasing the monthly jobs report this Friday. According to economists polled, Canada’s unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 5.6%. This marks a modest increase from the 5.4% registered in May.

The economy is forecast to add just 8000 jobs during the month of June.

Given the volatility with Canada’s jobs report, there is no telling whether we will get to see another blockbuster month.

But a beat on the estimates will no doubt make the BoC more confident as it looks to next week’s monetary policy meeting.

Having said that, there has been a recent uptick in Canada’s economy after a brief spell of a soft patch during the first quarter of the year.

Canada’s Jobless Rate Falls in May

The job numbers for June in Canada came out stronger than expected. The unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in May. This beat estimates of an unchanged print from April.

In April, Canada’s unemployment rate was at 5.7%. The decline in the unemployment rate marked a historic low for the Canadian economy and was at the lowest in 43 years.

The monthly employment change saw 27.7k jobs being added. This once again beat estimates that forecast just 5,000 jobs to be added. The total job gains over the past 12 months to 453,100 for the period ending May 2019.

Canada’s labor market remains the main driving force for the economy which was previously showing signs of a slowdown.

Last week, the latest GDP reports indicated that Canada’s economy rose 0.3% on the month in April. The data beat estimates of a 0.1% increase and continued from the 0.5% increase in March this year.

In fact, the GDP growth over March and April marked the biggest two-month growth in Canada’s economy since December 2017. The average hourly earnings rose to 2.55% on an annualized basis in May 2019.

BoC’s Business Outlook Survey – Employment

The Bank of Canada recently published its business outlook survey that was released last Friday. The survey showed that investment spending plans were healthy among firms. This potentially indicates a good sign for the firm’s expansion plans, which also leads to a higher workforce.

The investment spending plans come despite some anticipation of uncertainty due to the trade wars with the US and China.

Although Canada is largely out of the picture, the recent turn around by President Trump to use trade tariffs as a negotiating tool has kept firms on edge. Firms in the survey showed that although growth is expected in the coming months, it would be slower compared to that of 2018.

The intentions to increase employment were also healthy according to the business outlook survey. The firms that participated in the survey signaled that hiring would come across different sectors as well as regions.

Sales growth and production were one of the reasons that led to a positive outlook on hiring.

Most importantly, the future sales growth was also positive, although it remains at lows.

Impact of the Employment Report

Today’s employment report will have major implications for the Bank of Canada. The recent uptick in the GDP has complemented inflation staying at the BoC’s inflation target rate of 2.0%.

The data has shifted the expectations somewhat that there could be an upside risk for Canada’s interest rates. The BoC has held off from rate hikes, keeping interest rates unchanged for five consecutive months.

The BoC’s interest rates stand at 1.75%. While the BoC initially signaled that rates could move in either direction, there was a brief period where the markets expected a rate cut.

There are a lot more challenges than just the jobs report for the BoC. The central bank is due to meet in mid-July. While no changes are expected, a better than anticipated jobs report could change that perspective.

By Orbex

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events July 5, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

Into the weekly close, we want to look at Gold again. With the Non-Farm Payrolls being published, we face a potential market mover – even though Gold presented itself already and once again quite volatile over the last days.

The reason can most likely be found in a Tweet from US president Trump: in this tweet, he talks about his intention to nominate Judy Shelton to be on the board of the Federal Reserve. What’s interesting about Shelton is, that beside her ongoing criticism of the Fed, in 2019, she said that she hoped for a new Bretton Woods-style conference where countries would agree to return to the Gold standard.

As a result of Trump’s tweet, and 10-year USTs dropping below 2% again, Gold again attacked its current yearly highs around 1,440 USD.

If today’s NFPs disappoint, new yearly highs are likely in the precious metal, and could potentially level the path up to 1,480/490 USD in the days to come.

In fact, chances are good that NFPs will see at least a mixed number, probably worse than that. The reason can be found in the ‘not so good’ ADP reading on last Wednesday: here, numbers printed the biggest miss since February 2010, with the second significant plunge in small businesses and here between 1- 19 employees which is noteworthy due to their leading tendency for the economic cycle.

With that in mind, another stint towards and below 1,400 USD seems unlikely. And even if we, by surprise, get to see such a development, the next potential target can be found around 1,360/365 USD, the multi-year breakout region June 20, and potential midterm Long trigger:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between April 4, 2018, to July 4, 2019). Accessed: July 4, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016 it increased by 8.1%, in 2017 it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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By Orbex

The US markets are reopening after being closed on Thursday for Independence Day. Investors will be eyeing the payrolls report due later today. The US economy is forecast to add 162k jobs in June.

Besides the US payrolls report, Canada will also be releasing its monthly employment data. Canada’s unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from 5.4% previously to 5.5% in June. Elsewhere, the economic data remains sparse.

Euro Muted After Retail Sales

The euro traded flat on Thursday. Economic data from the eurozone saw the release of the monthly retail sales report. The report showed that sales in the eurozone fell 0.3% in June. This was below the forecasts of a 0.4% increase and down from June’s revised print of a 0.1% decline.

EURUSD Edges Closer to 1.1250

Price action in the currency pair has been somewhat flat over the past few days after the initial decline earlier. This has kept the currency pair trading within the range of the 1.1400 and 1.1250 levels. The current declines could potentially push the EURUSD lower to test the 1.1250 level of support. However, in case of a reversal, we could expect to see the 1.1400 resistance level being tested once again.

Crude Oil Slips on Fears of Slowing Demand

WTI Crude oil prices posted declines early on Friday. The declines came on investor concerns about slowing demand. The futures markets saw crude oil falling 1.1% while Brent futures were down 0.1%, extending declines from the day before. The declines come after OPEC and Russia agreed to extend the current production cuts for the next six to nine months.

WTI Crude Oil Forms a Bearish Flag

Following the recent declines off the highs near the 60.00 handle, oil prices have been consolidating sideways. This has led to a bearish flag pattern being formed just below the resistance area of 57.50. A breakdown below the previous lows of 56.25 could confirm the downside bias. This will validate the bearish flag pattern which puts the downside target to 54.42 where support level exists.

Gold Prices Hold Steady Near Highs

The precious metal was traded a bit volatile near the highs on Thursday. Price action was rather muted as gold traders await the payrolls report due later today. A weaker payrolls report could potentially cement expectations of a July rate cut. This comes following the ADP private payrolls once again falling short of expectations. The pace of hiring was also somewhat slower compared to the previous months.

Will Gold Breakout Higher?

Given the current set up, gold prices are likely to see a breakout in either direction. To the upside, price will need to breach past the recent highs of 1431 in order to confirm the upside bias. There is a cup and handle type of pattern forming near the current highs that validates this view. To the downside, if the 1404 level of support gives way, then gold could extend declines to1354.

By Orbex

By Alpari.com

By Alpari.com