InvestMacro

By The Gold Report

Source: Bob Moriarty for Streetwise Reports   08/19/2019

Bob Moriarty of 321 Gold discusses this company’s exploration efforts at its Nevada gold project.

I first talked about Blackrock in March of last year. They had done a deal with Carl Pescio on what they call the Silver Cloud gold project. The project is next to the high-grade Hollister Gold Mine and near the high-grade Midas mine in Northern Nevada.

The district is well known for bonanza grade intercepts in vein systems. 8,000 meters of prior drilling fifteen years ago by both Teck and Placer Dome generated intercepts of 1.5 meters of 157 g/t gold and 12 meters of 5.5 g/t Au but were never followed up with.

Blackrock applied for and received permits for a 2,000-meter drill program starting a month from now. A drill ready anomaly was discovered only this summer by both geophysics and geochemical testing with surface vein outcropping at surface on the 40 square kilometer project.

New technical work suggests a 2 km strike potential with primary orientation running East/West rather than the North/South direction suggested by historic drilling.

An indication of the interest in participation in the recent placement at $0.16 for $150,000 from Carl Pescio himself should show potential investors the level of confidence the claim owner feels about both Blackrock and the pending drill program.

The million dollars being raised will fund the planned exploration program and Blackrock has about $2.5 million in warrants priced between $0.10 and $0.20 so any indication of success should generate the money for a follow-up program.

Blackrock is an advertiser. I am participating in the current pp. I did participate in the last pp and I’d love to be able to exercise my warrants. Naturally that makes me somewhat biased. Do your own due diligence.

Blackrock Gold Corp.
BRC-V $0.16 (Aug 19, 2019)
BKR-OTCBB 49.2 million shares
Blackrock website.

Bob and Barb Moriarty brought 321gold.com to the Internet almost 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures and updates on current events affecting both sectors. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds 14 international aviation records.

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Disclosure:
1) Bob Moriarty: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own shares of the following companies mentioned in this article: Blackrock Gold. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this article: Blackrock Gold is an advertiser on 321 Gold. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
2) The following companies mentioned are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
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( Companies Mentioned: BRC:TSX.V,
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By TheTechnicalTraders.com

In Part I of this research, we highlighted the Case-Shiller index of home affordability and how it relates to the US real estate market and consumer economic activity going forward.  We warned that once consumers start to shift away from an optimistic view of the economy, they typically shift into a protectionist stance where they attempt to protect wealth, assets and risk of loss while attempting to weather the economic storm.

We’ve seen this happen in 2008-09 as well as after the 9/11 attacks in the US in 2001.  The process is always somewhat similar.  Consumers start to react to pricing levels that are unaffordable and do so by trying to skimp on extraneous purchases like travel, new cars, credit card debt or other items that are not essential.  The other thing that happens is that the lower tier borrowers (the “at-risk borrowers”) typically begin to become delinquent on debts and fall behind on their mortgage payments.  This is how the process starts.

Once it starts, a shift takes place in the market that can be sudden or it can be transitional.  The shift is often termed as a change from a “Seller’s Market” to a “Buyer’s Market”.  This terminology is used to describe who is in control of the transaction and who has the advantage within the transaction.  When it is a “Seller’s Market”, buyers are typically offering to pay MORE for an item/home and the seller does not have to stress about trying to sell their property/items.  When it is a “Buyer’s Market”, the buyer is able to negotiate with the seller, demanding more concessions, lower prices, better deals and often has a wide variety of sellers wanting to court the buyer away from other property/items.  See how this shift in market dynamics can really change the way a marketplace works.

Now, lets take a look at how the US consumer is doing, overall, and how it might reflect a change in the marketplace if certain fundamental change.

This chart of the delinquency rates for All Loans and Leases in the US shows an increase in the levels of delinquencies starting near the 2016 year.  This aligns with the year that the US Fed began raising the Fed Funds Rate and is exactly 1 year after the Chinese initiated capital controls to attempt to prevent local currency (Chinese Yuan) from leaving the country and landing in other countries as foreign assets.  In 2015, the delinquency rate for All Loans and Leases was near 2004~05 levels (below  30,000).  Right now, the level is above the 2008 level near 36,000.

Consumer Credit Card Delinquencies are rising sharply.  Since 2016, the increase in sub-prime credit card delinquencies has skyrocketed above the peak levels of 2008-09 and continues to stay above 5.5%.

Meanwhile, those nasty Mortgage Backed Securities held outright are still massively higher than in 2008/09 based on this Fred data.  We are unsure why the data is reported as ZERO in 2008, but we can safely assume that a $1.55 Trillion risk factor in these MBS levels is not something that we would consider a minor risk factor.

Now, in the first part of this article, we promised to show you some data from our proprietary Fed modeling utility and to show you what we use to determine if the US Fed is ahead of the curve or behind it.  Here you go..

Our original research model of the US economy and the Fed Rate levels into the future are shown below.  You can see that our model suggests the US Fed, as of 2013, should have been raising rates towards the 1.5% level then gradually raising them further towards 2.0% to 2.25% before 2017.  This type of increase would have slowed the advance of the real estate price levels and moderated the expansion of the debt levels that are currently associated within this sector.  Instead, the US Fed was late in their efforts to raise rates – starting only in late 2016.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

Based on our model, current rates should be dropping toward levels near 1.25% to 1.75% as US debt, GDP and population levels continue to increase.  In the 4 years after the 2020 election, rates should stay below 2% as the US Fed is somewhat trapped until GDP increases dramatically.  Our modeling system suggests there are only two ways the US Fed can attempt to raise rates above 2.5% in the future; a. the US GDP increases dramatically (increasing to levels more than 1.5x total US debt annually), or b. US debt is dramatically reduced while GDP continues to grow at moderate rates.

In the last part of this 3 part article series, we’ll show you more data that will allow you to prepare for the future events that may unfold and show you how to watch for some of these trigger events yourself.

If you are like me and have friends who know nothing about real estate like cops and techie programmers building spec homes and thinking its easy money, then you know the market is or has already topped. In fact, take a look at home sales month over month in Canada.

House Values Declining Month Over Month

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point which is the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on to profit from falling real estate prices.

I can tell you that huge moves are starting to folding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these supercycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my ETF Wealth Building Trading Newsletter  and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen

By Money Metals News Service

If we look at certain indicators in the silver market, the price is setting up for a big move. It seems as if mainstream investors are now becoming more worried about the stock and bond markets. With almost $17 trillion in negative-yielding debt in the world, the notion that gold or silver doesn’t earn a yield is starting to look like a better deal than paying someone to own bonds.

Thus, the record increase in negative-yielding debt has push gold, in just the past few months, has been one of the catalysts to push gold above an important six-year resistance level. Furthermore, several articles have stated that gold has reached an all-time high in 73 currencies. However, it will take some time for gold to reach a new high in the U.S. Dollar because the Fed has a monopoly on the world’s printing press.

Now, for silver. While silver hasn’t been in the spotlight like gold, it has actually outperformed the yellow metal over the past three months. Since June, gold peaked at being 18% higher while silver was 20%. But, certain indicators for silver are showing that we may be setting up for an even BIGGER MOVE.

In my newest video, SILVER MARKET: Indicators Setting Up For A Big Move, I explain this in detail with ten charts:

One of the important charts in the video shows how the volume on the SLV ETF has increased significantly and is the highest its been since 2012. Typically, when we see a significant increase in trading volume in a stock or commodity, traders and investors are setting the stage for a larger price move ahead:

Part of the reason for the increased volume in the SLV ETF, has to do with it finally breaking above the 50 Month Moving Average (Blue Line). The silver price and SLV ETF have been trading below the 50 Month Moving Average (MMA) since 2013. So, a close above this 50 MMA at the end of August would be an excellent sign for traders and investors.

Now, I published the video late on Sunday evening because of positive setup on the Silver Daily chart. I saw a small Ascending Triangle form in the silver price over the past two weeks, and if it broke above that $17.25 level this week, we could easily see another $1.00+ move. However, with the announcement by the German Govt of stimulus plan as well as China’s interest rate reform (published on Zerohedge), the precious metals sold off in late Asian and early European trading.

In my previous video, GOLD & SILVER: Continued Breakout Or Correction, I did say that I thought the precious metals would more than likely experience a correction before moving higher. While the short-term Silver Ascending Triangle did not result in a move higher today or this week, nothing goes up in a straight line.

However, even if we don’t see a continued breakout in the silver price this week or next, the medium to longer-term fundamentals and technicals still point to much higher prices over the next 1-2 years. Furthermore, the Silver COT report that came out on Friday reported that the Commercials liquidated 10,000 short positions, even though the silver price increased 50+ cents:

So, the idea that the Commercials will continue to add more shorts as the silver price increases, doesn’t seem to be taking place over the past two weeks. Instead, we see a “consolidation” of Commercial Net short positions to a lower level as the silver price increases.

Lastly, over the weekend, I did an interview with Louis at Smaulgld.com on the silver market. Even though I explained some of the indicators with Louis, I wanted to do a more detailed video. But, Louis adds some interesting information about the tremendous amount of silver moving into the SLV ETF as well as other global silver ETFs. Here is our interview below:

Precious metals investors shouldn’t be concerned with seeing a correction in the gold and silver prices. As I stated, gold could go back down to $1,360 and silver $15.50 before resuming their bullish trend at the end of the summer or beginning of the fall. Of course, they don’t have to correct all the way down to those levels, but we should be surprised if they do.

I will continue to put updates on the Gold and Silver prices, but I plan to put out a very interesting video on the Fundaments in the Silver Market next week that is quite interesting.

The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.

By IFCMarkets

Turkish Central Bank lowers reserve requirements

In this review, we suggest to consider the currency pair Euro against the Turkish Lira. Is the growth of EURTRY quotations possible? Such dynamics is observed with the weakening of the Turkish lira and the strengthening of the euro.

The Central Bank of Turkey has lowered the reserve requirement to increase lending to the economy by the banking sector. Such measures can be considered as a softening of its policy and an analogue of money emission, which led to a weakening of the lira. The next meeting of the Central Bank of Turkey will be held on September 12. On the same day there will be a meeting of the ECB. The main risk for the single currency now is the budget crisis in Italy. The Prime Minister of this country, Giuseppe Conte announced his resignation on August 20, which caused a slight strengthening of the euro.

On the daily timeframe EURTRY: D1 exited the downtrend. Further growth of quotations is possible if the crisis in Italy is successfully completed and the monetary policy of the Turkish Central Bank is further relaxed.

• The Parabolic indicator demonstrates a signal to increase.
• The Bolinger bands widened, indicating high volatility. Both Bollinger Lines Slope Up.
• The RSI indicator is above the mark of 50. It has formed a divergence to increase.
• The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

The bullish momentum may develop if EURTRY exceeds its last maximum: 6.36. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial stop lose may be placed below the last two lower fractals and the Parabolic signal: 6.11. After opening the pending order, the stop shall be moved following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal minimum. Thus, we are changing the potential profit/loss to the breakeven point. More risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place a stop loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop level (6,11) without reaching the order (6,36), we recommend to cancel the order: the market sustains internal changes that were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By Orbex

This is the week for the Fed, with two major events that have the markets on tenterhooks. Later we have the release of the minutes from the last meeting. These will give us some valuable insight into what to expect from the FOMC going forward. Everyone is especially interested to see what the chances of another cut are.

Although this is an important data point for central bank trackers, it might be somewhat overshadowed by expectations regarding what we might get from the annual Jackson Hole symposium going into the weekend. Analysts will be combing through the minutes to get some clues into what Chairman Powell might say. Not only this but also to get a better understanding of the split vote about cutting rates at the last meeting.

The Changing Situation

There was an important economic development after the last meeting, which puts a new context on our understanding of the Fed’s outlook. The official inversion of the bond yield curve brings up the question of what tools the Fed has to deal with a potential recession. Currently, rates are half what they were in the leadup to the financial crisis. The bank has just barely finished its balance sheet normalization.

In fact, some are questioning whether the balance sheet has actually been fully adjusted. Or whether it’s at the appropriate level. One of the arguments that the Fed had during its latest tightening cycle is to build the policy room to deal with future economic downturns. Some analysts argue that the process is far from complete. And that the latest cut was an interruption that has left the Fed with a half-empty tool bag.

What to Expect

It will be interesting to see how unified the FOMC is in terms of policy outlook. After the meeting, Powell said that the cut was a “mid-cycle adjustment”. This suggests that there is more tightening on the cards. More importantly, that easing wasn’t something being considered.

How many board members agree with that view? Well, the two dissenting members at the last meeting had an upbeat outlook for the economy. Rosengren, in particular, commented that the economy’s growth was “satisfactory”.

We’ll be keen to see if there has been any talk about what conditions the committee saw as appropriate to start easing.

The Cut and Going Forward

The US economy is largely seen as out of pace with the rest of the world. This is despite the bleak global outlook being blamed on the trade war initiated by the US. In terms of employment, GDP, and inflation, the US continues to post positive numbers. This is in spite of the repeated press commentary about an impending recession.

While the yield curve inversion carries a lot of weight among analysts, it is not an accepted tool for the Fed. In fact, even by the track record of the indicator, we’d still be a full year ahead of a potential recession. In this context, the Fed’s rate cut can be understood as an insurance adjuster. This is because of the moves in other major central banks around the world.

The Bottom Line

The markets would like at least speculation of a cut to boost volatility, and to inject liquidity. This hopeful thinking might get the market ahead of itself, with expectations of finding comments among the minutes to justify more easing in the future. But the Fed’s minutes are likely to be mundane. It’s likely that they will not reveal much beyond what external factors might affect the domestic economy, which is broadly seen to be doing well.

By Orbex

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Real Estate is one of the biggest purchases anyone will make in their lifetime.  It can account for 30x to 300x one’s annual income and take over 30 years to pay off.  After you’re done paying for your property, now you have to keep paying to maintain it and to support the property taxes to keep it.  What has happened to the US Real Estate market since the 2008-09 global credit market collapse and is the US Fed behind the curve?

Case-Shiller Home Price Index

One of the most common indicators used to measure national housing affordability and price trend is the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.  In this chart, we are displaying the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index – including all markets in the US.  It is fairly easy to see that in last 2016, on a national level, the Case-Shiller index had reached the 2006 peak level.  After that, the new Trump economy pushed it even higher where we now near 210.  This is a very uncommon level for this index and because we are in uncharted territory with this 210 ranking, it should concern everyone that a reversion maybe somewhere in our future.

Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now

The question we’ve been asking our research team is “Is the US Fed behind the curve in the markets and how will that translate into the US/Global equity markets?”

When we consider the recent Fed rate increases (starting in 2016), our research team compared these levels to a modeling system we build back in 2013.  This modeling system suggests what the US Fed should have been doing based on certain GDP, Population and other factors.  The chart below is the Current Fed Funds Rate data from early 1990 till now.  The rise in valuation on the Case-Shiller index can almost be directly correlated to the amount of money available in the global markets and the US Fed rate levels.  More money and lower interest rates mean everyone was stampeding into housing expecting it to increase in value (which it did).  But what is next with the US Fed turning cautious recently?

US 30 Year Mortgage Rate

The US 30 Year Mortgage Rate has continued to rotate between 3.5% and 5% (on average).  We all know these rates vary depending on the borrower’s credit rating and other factors. Yet we believe any rates above 4% (on average) are dangerous for the markets and once lenders start to tighten requirements for loans while sellers start to aggressively decrease their asking price in order to attract buyers, we could see a massive shift in the market within a matter of months, not years.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

The global markets are setting up for some type of event.  Capital is being pulled out of the markets as investors/traders wait to see what happens with the US/China trade issues, the EU as well as the US Presidential election in November 2020.  Many economists and researchers believe a recession is fast approaching and are waiting for any signs that it is starting.

Are the turmoils setting up in the global stock market about to fracture into the global real estate market as well?  As investors and consumers engage in risk aversion processes, how will that result in continued economic activity in certain sectors of the global market?  Could it be that we are about to experience an economic contraction/reversion event that many analysts have failed to comprehend?

In part II of this article, we’ll show you our US Fed proprietary modeling system’s data and show you why we believe something big is going to unfold over the next 3 to 5+ years.  We’ll also highlight some very interesting data regarding the US real estate market that you should be preparing for right now.

Real Estate has already run through the price advance cycle and the price maturity cycle.  There is really only one cycle left to unfold at this point – the “price revaluation cycle”.  This is where the opportunity lies with a select real estate ETF I am keeping my eye on.

I can tell you that huge moves are about to start unfolding not only in real estate, but metals, stocks, and currencies. Some of these super cycles are going to last years. Brad Matheny goes into great detail with his simple to understand charts and guide about this. His financial market research is one of a kind and a real eye-opener. PDF guide: 2020 Cycles – The Greatest Opportunity Of Your Lifetime

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities are massive/life-changing if handled properly.

I urge you to visit my Wealth Building Newsletter and if you like what I offer, join me with the 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible, get a FREE BAR OF GOLD and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next set of crisis’.

Chris Vermeulen
TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is forming a wide consolidation range; after updating the low and returning to 1.1090, it has broken the range to the upside. Possibly, the pair may choose an alternative scenario to test 1.1090 from above and then resume trading upwards to reach 1.1112. According to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1060.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

After completing the descending wave at 1.2066 and returning to 1.2140, GBPUSD has completed the continuation pattern to break this level to the upside and may choose an alternative scenario to grow towards 1.2140. Later, the market may start another decline to return to 1.2140 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 1.2222. However, according to the main scenario, the price is expected to continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2060.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF has completed the descending correction at 0.9777. Today, the pair may start another growth to reach 0.9834 and then form a new descending structure towards 0.9797. After that, the instrument may resume trading upwards with the target at 0.9850.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may reach 106.80 and then start a new correction towards 106.50. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 107.07.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still consolidating around 0.6767. According to the main scenario, the price may move upwards to break 0.6830 and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the short-term target at 0.6880.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has finished the descending impulse towards 66.61; right now, it is consolidating to break it to the downside. The target is at 66.10. Today, the pair may reach this level and then grow to test 66.60 from below. After that, the instrument may rebound from this level and start a new decline with the target at 65.65.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is consolidating around 1.3310. Possibly, the pair may break this level to the downside and continue the correction to reach 1.3276. After that, the instrument may return to 1.3310, break it to the upside, and then continue trading inside the uptrend with the target at 1.3363.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is consolidating around 1505.65. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range towards 1483.40 and then start another growth to return to 1505.65. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the first target at 1476.60.

BRENT

Brent has broken 60.05 and formed an upside continuation pattern. Today, the pair may reach 61.20 and then start a new decline to return to 60.05. After that, the instrument may resume trading inside the uptrend with the target at 62.44.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD has completed Diamond reversal pattern. Possibly, today the pair may fall to break 10580.88 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 10236.00. Later, the market may be corrected towards 10500.00 and then form a new descending structure to reach 10000.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

The chances of a no-deal Brexit in October are increasing. Boris Johnson continues to stand firm over his demands that the EU scrap the Irish backstop in order to achieve a Brexit deal. However, the EU has once again confirmed that they will not concede any ground over the issue. They remain adamant that the Irish backstop is to be part of any deal. In response to a letter written by Johnson to EU leaders this week, reiterating his call for the backstop to be scrapped, EU leaders quickly rebuffed his calls for “flexible and creative solutions” and “alternative arrangements”.

Tusk Shoots Johnson Down

In a telling insight into the level of opposition to Johnson’s demand, Donald Tusk wrote on Twitter:

“Those against the backstop and not proposing realistic alternatives in fact support re-establishing a border [between the Republic of Ireland, part of the EU, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK]. Even if they do not admit it”.

Johnson said that the EU’s response to his letter had been “a bit negative”.

Johnson To Meet Merkel

Followed Johnson’s latest failed attempt at persuading the EU to drop the backstop, Johnson is due to meet with German chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin later today. Merkel has been calling on both sides to co-operate in order to secure a deal which works for both parties.

However, Johnson is adamant that the backstop needs to be scrapped or significantly reworked. He said that “we can’t get it through parliament as it is”.  Consequently, if a compromise cannot be found over the issue, then it seems the UK is headed for a no-deal Brexit.

Can Parliament Block A No-Deal Brexit?

Despite Johnson’s insistence that the UK will leave the EU without a deal if needs be, on October 31^st, many Labour and other opposition MPs have vowed to block a no-deal Brexit from taking place. Indeed, Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour party, has vowed to table a vote of no confidence against Johnson if he attempts to pass a no-deal Brexit. He aims to replace the government with a temporary administration which could delay Brexit, and allow for general elections to take place.

However, Corbyn is, as yet, struggling to garner the necessary support for such move. Instead, many opposition MPs are currently investigating whether they are able to pass legislation which would require Brexit be delayed. MPs are hoping they can repeat the actions taken by backbenchers earlier this year who took control of the Commons order paper to mandate Theresa May to request an extension to Brexit. However, this is a difficult parliamentary process and time is running out. For now, the UK edges closer towards a no-deal Brexit, led by Boris Johnson

Technical Perspective

For now, GBPUSD remains glued to the bottom of the bearish channel which has framed price action over the year to date. Still sitting above the 1.20 2017 lows, price is vulnerable to a squeeze higher but 1.2382 should cap any upside. Thus keeping the focus on further losses. The next major support level is down at 1.1415. To the topside, any break above 1.2382 will put focus on 1.2577 next where we also have the bearish channel top offering confluent resistance.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, there was a convergence on MACD after the pair had reached the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2019 and 1.1788 respectively, which indicated a new pullback. By now, the pullback has reached 23.6% fibo and may continue towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2230, 1.2286, and 1.2350 respectively. The support is the low at 1.2015.

The short-term scenario is shown on the H1 chart. Here, there is a local convergence, which may indicate a slowdown in the correctional uptrend towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.2223 and 1.2286 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the daily chart, EURJPY is still testing the long-term low again. After breaking the low and fixing below it, the descending tendency may continue towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 114.34 and 112.09 respectively. The resistance is close to 76.0% fibo at 120.28.

In the H4 chart, after being corrected to the upside by 50.0%, the pair is trading downwards to reach the low at 117.51.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Orbex

FOMC Meeting Minutes Next

The US dollar has been lightly sold over the European session so far today. Following on from losses seen yesterday, the USD index had posted a mild recovery overnight. Today, however, it has since come back under selling pressure. Markets are awaiting the FOMC meeting minutes tonight. While the Fed cut rates last time around, Powell downplayed the prospect of further easing. It will be interesting to see how much discussion there actually was. USD index trades 98.11 last.

EUR Still Capped by 1.1112

EURUSD has been relatively muted today, despite the weakness in USD. Price is still capped by the 1.1112 level for now following a break below the level last week. To the downside, the next key level to watch is the 1.1025 zone. Flows are expected to remain quiet with no key eurozone data today.

Brexit Drama Weighs on GBP

GBPUSD is trading in the red today so far also. Ongoing Brexit uncertainty has seen GBPUSD glued to the bottom of its bearish channel over recent weeks. The prospect of a no-deal Brexit is becoming more of a reality with each passing day, putting the risk of a break below 1.20 into sharper focus.

SPX500 Trades Higher

Risk assets have had a better day today with the SPX500 trading higher over the European morning. Traders remain optimistic regarding the ongoing US/China trade negotiations, despite the various risks attached to the situation. SPX500 trades 2917.18 last having recovered most of yesterday’s losses at this point.

Safe Havens Down on Risk Recovery

Safe havens have seen a little selling today in light of the recovery in risk appetite. Both gold and JPY have been lower, despite a weaker USD. XAUUSD trades 1500.66 for now, still sitting off recent highs posted just above the 1522.75 level, which capped the recent rally. USDJPY is a little higher today, at 106.43 last. However, for now, remains trapped in a block of consolidation below the 106.77 level which remains the key topside level to watch.

Crude Breaking Trend Line

Oil prices have been higher again today as the general improvement in risk appetite has been accompanied by better industry reporting. The API report yesterday showed an unexpected drawdown in US crude stores. The market now waits for the headline EIA report, released later today, to confirm the movement. Crude trades 56.57 last with price now trading above the bearish trend line from July highs.

Commodity Currencies Recover

USDCAD has been a little softer today in light of the recovery in risk appetite and higher oil prices, which have both helped CAD. The FOMC meeting minutes later today have the potential to weigh on USD further putting USDCAD at risk of a break back below the 1.3300 level.

AUDUSD is in the green today also, though price action remains tightly congested in the current block which has formed around the .6758 level support. The market is highly driven by developments in the US/China trade story which poses heavy two-way risk.

By Orbex