InvestMacro

By IFCMarkets

Top Gainers – The World Market

1. Wheaton Precious Metals Corp – Canadian precious metals mining company.

2. Centerra Gold Inc. – Canadian gold mining company.

 Top Losers – The World Market

1. Iluka Resources Ltd – Australian titanium dioxide and fertilizer producer company.

2. Brambles Ltd –Australian transport and logistics company.

 Top Gainers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. USDMXN, EURMXN – an increase in this chart means the weakening of the Mexican peso against the US dollar and the euro.

2. GBPNZD, USDСNH – an increase in this chart means the strengthening of the British pound against the New Zealand dollar, as well as the American dollar against the Chinese yuan.

 Top Losers – Foreign Exchange Market (Forex)

1. NZDJPY, NZDCAD – the decrease in these charts means a strengthening of the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar against the New Zealand dollar.

2. AUDJPY, NZDUSD – the decrease in these charts means strengthening of the Japanese yen against the Australian dollar, as well as the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

By Money Metals News Service

Not only are the precious metals prices looking better than they have for several years, but the reasons to own them continue to improve as central banks begin to crank up their massive CREDIT CARD DEBT.

In just the past month, the U.S. Treasury has increased the outstanding public debt by a whopping $450 billion.

Of course, they are making up for some lost time as they were unable to increase the debt until the Whitehouse, Senate, and Congress passed a bipartisan deal for a two-year postponement of the debt-ceiling on July 22nd.

Thus, the new agreement has kept the U.S. Government from shutting down or defaulting on its debt.

Well, it didn’t take much time after the ink was dry on the new bi-partisan deal that the U.S. Treasury announced plans to issue $814 billion of new debt between July and December.  And, as we can see, $450 billion was already issued in August:

Without this $450 billion in new debt, the entire U.S. Government and economy would have begun to shut down and collapse.  Furthermore, the U.S. Treasury is finding decent demand for this new debt because an increasing amount of Foreign Treasuries and Bonds have a negative interest rate.

So, investors around the world would rather buy U.S. Treasuries and Bonds at a small positive rate than lose money, holding their bonds at negative rates.

Of course, this cozy situation won’t last as the Fed will likely be forced to lower rates back to zero and then into negative territory when the U.S. economy rolls over into a recession.

However, here’s an important question.  How much does $814 billion of new U.S. Treasury debt look like if we compare it to the value of global gold and silver production in 2019?

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence (gold) and my estimate (silver), global gold production will reach 110 million oz (Moz) this year, while world silver production will likely fall to 850 Moz:

If we multiply the annual production figure for gold by $1,500 and silver by $18, the total value equals approximately $180 billion:

So, the U.S. Treasury will have issued another $814 billion in debt in within six months versus the $180 billion value of global gold and silver mine supply for 2019. And, this is only one central bank issuing more debt.  Thus, the more debt that is added to central banks balance sheets, the more interest rates have to fall.

Why?  Well, for starters, the central banks can’t keep the lights or fund the government if the interest expense they are paying on all this debt continues higher.  Which means, the next best option is to get the Bondholders to fund some of the central bank deficits.

This is very bullish for gold and silver going forward because the notion that precious metals don’t provide a RETURN or YIELD becomes meaningless when bondholders are charged an interest to lend governments money.

The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.

By IFCMarkets

Slowing German inflation bearish for EURUSD

Inflation in six German states indicated overall German inflation likely slowed in August from the prior month. Will the EURUSD continue declining?

A look at the price chart on 1-hour timeframe shows EURUSD: H1 is in bearish trend. The price has remained below the 200-period moving average MA(200) which is falling.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By Orbex

Gold

Following an initial break higher on the week, gold prices reversed lower to the end the week in the red.

Gold this week has largely been moving along with the changes in US-China relations.

We kicked off the week with China announcing a fresh set of 10% tariffs on a further $75 billion of US goods. This was in retaliation for Trump’s fresh tariffs due to take effect on September 1^st. Trump then issued a swift counter-threat, promising to raise tariffs again. Taking to Twitter, the president wrote:

In light of this severe escalation, gold gapped higher at the open of the week, with equities having come off sharply amidst a wave of risk aversion. However, on Monday, Trump seemed to completely shift his approach. Making his final comments at the end of the G7 meeting in Biarritz, Trump said that there had been phone calls between the two nations and praised Premier Xi as a “great leader” (having labelled him “an enemy” only days earlier,) and said he was confident the two countries would deliver a “great deal” very soon.

Gold prices came off in response to this more moderate tone as risk sentiment recovered. This led to equities rising higher and sapping safe-haven inflows. Further into the week, this dynamic intensified. This was due to comments made by Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. The spokesman appealed for calm and said that China would refrain from imposing fresh tariffs in retaliation to the US, instead of saying that the country wishes to see an end to the trade war.

Negotiators from the two countries are due to meet for a further round of face to face trade talks in just two weeks. The market is now hopeful that this meeting will deliver more progress than last time around. If this should be the case, gold will likely come of further as risk sentiment strengthens. However, the situation remains fragile and there is plenty of upside risk for gold should talks breakdown or should there be any further tariff threats made.

By Orbex

By IFCMarkets

Positive data bullish for DJI

Durable goods orders in US rose more than expected as private sector continues expanding. Will the DJI stock index continue advancing?

US data lately were positive on balance: durable goods orders rose in July, and expansion in services sector continued (albeit at slower than forecast pace) in August while manufacturing sector contracted, according to Markit PMIs. And Markit’s composite PMI indicates that private sector activity expansion continued in August though at slower pace. Continuing economic growth is bullish for US equities market.

On the daily timeframe DJI: D1 is rising after breaching above the resistance line. It has returned above 200-day moving average MA(200). These are bullish developments.

• The Donchian channel indicates uptrend: it is tilted up.
• The Parabolic indicator has formed a buy signal.
• The MACD indicator is below the signal line and the gap is narrowing, which is a bullish signal.
• The RSI oscillator is rising but has not reached the overbought zone.

We believe the bullish momentum will continue as the price breaches above the upper boundary of Donchian channel at 26452.7. This level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the fractal low at 25384.1. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (25384.1) without reaching the order (26452.7), we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.

Technical Analysis Summary

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

By Orbex

USD Softer After Data Miss

The US dollar has softened a little over the final European morning session of the week. However, price is still on course to end the week firmly in the green. Data yesterday showed that while Q2 GDP was in line with expectations at 2.4%, QoQ core PCE was lower than forecast at 1.7%. Looking ahead today we have the annual core PCE reading which is forecast at 1.6%. USD index trades 98.50 last, with price remaining above the broken 98.38 high.

EUR Lower

EURUSD remains under pressure today. Price is sitting just above the 1.1025 low having broken down steadily all week under the weight of a stronger US dollar. EUR remains capped by expectations that the ECB will announce a package of easing measures. The eurozone CPI released today showed inflation printing just 0.9% in August, further highlighting the challenges facing the ECB.

GBP Holds Up Against Parliament Suspension

GBPUSD has stabilized a little today. This comes following yesterday’s losses in response to news that, as per the Prime Minister’s request, the UK parliament has been suspended. However, opposition MPs are adamant that they will deliver a means to block Johnson from forcing a no-deal Brexit, which, for now, is keeping GBP bid. GBPUSD trades 1.2182 last, down off the 1.2309 weekly highs.

Risk Rallies

Risk assets have strengthened again today as equities remain buoyed by the positive developments in communications between the US and China. A more moderate tone from both sides has increased optimism for the next round of trade talks due in two week’s time. SPX500 has broken above the 2931.44 level today, trading 2942.48 last.

Safe Havens Soften

Safe havens have come under pressure today, given the recovery in risk sentiment, with both JPY and gold a little weaker against USD. USDJPY trades 106.41 last, with price still holding back above the 106.29 level for now. XAUUSD is sitting back on the 1522.75 level today, which is a major long term level to keep an eye on.

Crude Breaks Trend Line

Oil prices have softened a little today, though remain firmly positive on the week in light of another reported drawdown in US crude stores and better risk appetite. The EIA reported a 10 million barrel drawdown last week, nearly 5 times the forecast amount. However, news of new record high US crude production capped gains somewhat. However, price remains supported by a more optimistic backdrop to the US-China trade story. Crude trades 56.13 last, sitting above the broken trend line from July highs for now.

CAD Up, AUD Down

USDCAD has softened a little today as the general recovery in risk appetite, along with higher oil prices over the week, has helped lift CAD. USDCAD is still hovering around the 1.33 level for now, where price has spent much of the week in consolidation. Later today we have Canadian GDP for July forecast at 1.4%

AUDUSD continues to drift lower today with price grinding back down towards the year to date lows, sitting at .6719 last. Despite a better tone to US-China communications, the pullback in gold and a stronger USD is weighing on AUD which remains tightly congested for now.

By Orbex

By Orbex

Risk appetite returned on Thursday after China said that it was willing to resolve the trade disputes. The comments came from the Ministry of Commerce. The US and China trade dispute escalated early on after the US levied additional tariffs on China. The move threatened to derail the trade talks.

Italy Avoids Fresh Elections

The Italian government got together with the anti-establishment 5-Star movement and the Democratic party, forming a coalition. The two parties agreed to form a new government, staving off fresh elections. The move also curbs the far-right Matteo Salvini from becoming the Prime Minister.

The euro, however, brushed aside the data and remained weak on the day. The common currency is extending declines for the fourth consecutive session. Meanwhile, data from Germany showed that consumer prices slowed in August from the month before.

EURUSD Breaks Past Support Level

The EURUSD currency pair continued the declines on Thursday. This came after price action fell below the support area of 1.1065. The declines could push the currency pair down to 1.1030. This marks a confluence of the horizontal support and the trend line as well. The upside is likely to be limited, with 1.1065 turning to resistance.

Sterling Consolidates No-Deal Brexit Developments

The pound sterling was muted on Thursday after falling to a one-week low earlier in the week. Lack of fresh developments on the Brexit deadlock saw investors on the sidelines.

With the Queen now approving the suspension of Parliament, the prospects of a no-deal Brexit has increased. Still, many believe that a deal could be agreed closer to the deadline. Economic data today will focus on net lending and mortgage approvals data due later in the day.

GBPUSD Back to Support Area

The GBPUSD currency pair extended declines back to the support area of 1.2170. Price action is likely to retest this level more firmly in the near term. However, in the event that GBPUSD breaks down below this support, the upside bias will lose the validity. To the upside, the resistance area at 1.2511 – 1.2533 will be the next target in the medium term.

Gold holds Steady Near Six-Year High

The precious metal was weaker on Thursday but is still hovering near a six-year high. Price has remained fairly flat over the past few days. Gold investors await further cues from the trade narrative which has subsided for the moment. With the markets expecting to hear the Fed and the ECB layout the policy guidelines for the next quarter, gold is likely to hold flat at the current levels.

XAUUSD Bias to the Upside Builds Up

The precious metal extended declines on Thursday. However, prices will test the lower support at 1527.  A breakdown below this level will see gold prices declining further. The next downside support is at 1508 level. Below this level the next downside is at 1485 region.

By Orbex

By ForexNewsNow

Cryptocurrency adoption over the years has increased on a massive scale. Hundreds of new businesses have started accepting cryptocurrencies en masse due to the overall popularity of the coins.

However, there are thousands of other traditional companies that refuse to accept cryptos under any circumstance. What makes these two types of companies different from each other? Why would one accept these coins, while others would decline them? Is there some kind of disparity between them?

Let’s find out some of the reasons.

Local crypto volumes

Although cryptocurrencies open up so much potential for tapping into the global markets, most companies prefer to target the local populace before they can attempt global coverage. In order for them to test their products or if the whole idea of accepting crypto will be well received, they need to have a sizeable crypto trading community in their relative country.

As we all know, there aren’t too many countries where people would have so many cryptos that they’d be willing to spend them rather than keep them in the cold wallets expecting the price to grow.

However, if the country does have a lot of crypto holders, let’s say hundreds of thousands. Then the company could easily afford to launch the service as they’d expect at least 10% of these people to use their cryptos for shopping.

Furthermore, accepting Bitcoin has become somewhat of a unique feature for a company. Promoting their “affiliation with the blockchain” could drive in new customers even if they won’t use cryptos as payments.

People don’t want to pay cryptos for services

The argument for companies not accepting via cryptocurrencies is because it’s not really viable in some cases. Most of the crypto community believe that cryptocurrencies need to be exchanged for goods rather than services for it to have real liquidity and better adoption.

This all comes from the human sub-conscious actually. Whenever you’re buying something online it’s a completely different experience if it’s a service and not a physical object you can hold or even consume. However, whenever a specific asset can be used for those physical objects, it drives this perception for value.

This was the case with Georgian Forex brokers who decided it was a good idea to offer the local population payments in cryptocurrencies for their services. However, it was quickly discovered that almost none of the crypto holders in the country, which is roughly 40%, so about 6-700,000 people refused to participate in the offer.

This all stems from the population’s understanding of using cryptos for value, as it was the reason that half of the people surveyed answered, while the other half said they’d rather hold on to their cryptos as they expected them to grow in the near future.

The growth of the asset is also one of the main reasons why companies refuse to accept cryptos.

Potential for future fluctuations

Although I mentioned that the reason was the growth of the digital asset, it’s the potential for losses that usually bothers the companies, while the consumers are the other way around.

Let’s imagine a scenario of a company that was accepting Bitcoin payments in 2017 when BTC was about to hit its peak. Whatever they sold for BTC, they pretty much lost 80% on that item rather than make a profit.

This would be more than enough to scare most companies out of offering crypto payments. In fact, we don’t even need to imagine a company, there was actually a case with Steam, one of the largest video game libraries in the world. The company was accepting Bitcoin for years before it had to cut it short because of market volatility.

When it comes to accepting crypto payments, smaller companies have much less to lose as there is no real outside damage. For a large company which is listed on an exchange, it could be disastrous. In one quarter they may report $5 million revenue in cryptos, when in the second quarter that would equal $1 million. It’s just too risky for the investors themselves, who are usually the largest deterrents.

Low safety

The other major deterrent for these companies is how dangerous it is to have large volumes of cryptocurrencies concentrated on one single address. If that address were to take a hit from a hacker, so much capital would be in jeopardy.

But diversifying them across multiple channels would be too much hassle for it to be worth it. Furthermore, there would be no business benefits from the banks which are usually the repositories of the companies’ profits.

Overall, it’s safe to say that traditional companies don’t like being paid in cryptos because of how small the global crypto adoption is in modern times.

By ForexNewsNow

By Orbex

Canada will be releasing the GDP report for June alongside the full and final second quarter GDP data.

Based on recent data, it is widely expected that Canada’s second quarter GDP will rise by 2.7% – 2.8% during the quarter. This beats the Bank of Canada’s forecasts of a 2.3% increase on a quarterly basis.

On an annualized basis, the GDP growth rate is set to rise by 0.7%. This marks a giant leap from the 0.4% increase registered in the previous quarter ending March 2019. For the full year of 2019, the Bank of Canada has forecast a growth rate of 1.3%.

Canada’s economy got off to a weak start. In February, the economy contracted by 0.2%. But growth managed to pick up in the later months. The BoC had initially brushed aside the decline in the first quarter, calling it temporary.

Officials remain optimistic that growth will return in the upcoming quarters.

Number of Factors Contributing to GDP Growth

Economic data over the past few weeks adds evidence to the expectations that growth picked up.

Firstly, the retail sales increased modestly. Nominal retail sales turned flat in June. But, when removing the price effects, real retail sales grew 0.4% on a month over month basis.

Contributing to the retail sales increase was the building materials. This sector advanced 5.7% on the month. Besides the building materials sector, clothing sales and sporting goods also rose strongly.

Excluding sales at gasoline stations and car dealerships, retail sales grew 1.7% on the month. This was the biggest jump since January 2017. However, analysts point out that the increase (such as clothing and sporting goods) was largely due to the NBA playoffs.

Canada Manufacturing Sales Decline Less Than Expected

Earlier last week, manufacturing sales report showed a 1.2% decline to $58 billion in June. This follows up on a 1.6% increase in the month of May.

The official data from Statistics Canada showed that sales in 16 of 21 industries fell. This represented mostly manufacturing sales. The gains in May were, however, largely due to one-time deals. Thus, the June data gives us a more realistic picture.

As with the global trend, the manufacturing sector is looking at an uncertain period. Still, the data, so far, is holding up. But the question remains whether this trend can be sustainable going forward.

For the second quarter, manufacturing sales managed to rise by 1.7%, only a small gain. Petroleum and coal industries are also under pressure.

Both the industries saw sales declining by 3.8% in June.

Bank of Canada to Remain on the Sidelines

While other central banks are moving to or have already shifted to an easing bias, it is a different story for the Bank of Canada. The increase in the second quarter GDP this year will see the data beating the BoC’s estimates by a comfortable margin.

The central bank has been holding interest rates steady since October 2018. While initially citing the threat of a trade war with the United States, the narrative shifted. The tussle between the US and Chinahas engulfed the global economy.

As a result, trade and importantly, manufacturing, has seen a significant slowdown. The current economic outlook for Canada will likely give the Bank of Canada more breathing space compared to its peers.

But it will be interesting to see how long the BoC can buck the current monetary policy trend.

The central bank will be holding its next monetary policy meeting on the 4^th of September. However, it is unlikely to make any major adjustments to interest rates. This puts the BoC on hold while the Fed and the ECB are slated to cut interest rates and restart the QE program respectively.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After reaching another target at 1.1055, EURUSD has returned to 1.1090; right now, it is forming another descending wave towards 1.1026. After that, the instrument may start a new correction to return to 1.1055 and then resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1016.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is falling. Today, the pair may form a new descending structure to reach 1.2152 and then start another correction with the target at 1.2190. Later, the market may resume trading downwards to reach 1.2131.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may reach 0.9895 and then start a new correction with the first target at 0.9850.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY has reached 106.66; right now, it is consolidating below it. Possibly, the pair may be corrected towards 106.22 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 106.88.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached the downside target. Possibly, today the pair may consolidate near the lows. Later, the market may break the range to the upside and then start a new correction with the first target at 0.6767.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is forming the second descending impulse towards 66.36. Later, the market may consolidate. If the price breaks this range to the downside, the instrument may resume trading inside the downtrend with the target at 66.82.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

USDCAD is still consolidating around 1.3279; it has already formed Triangle pattern. Possibly, the pair may fall towards 1.3285 and then grow to reach 1.3310. If later the price breaks this pattern to the upside, the instrument may continue trading inside the uptrend to reach 1.3366; if to the downside – continue the correction with the target at 1.3225.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is forming the second descending impulse; right now, it is forming a continuation pattern around 1523.38. Possibly, today the pair may reach 1516.98 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1521.38. After that, the instrument may resume trading downwards with the target at 1501.60.

BRENT

Brent is moving upwardsю Today, the pair may reach 61.24, Later, the market may be corrected towards 60.06 and then form a new descending structure with the target at 61.41.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD has reached the downside target; right now, it is consolidating above 9300.00. If the price breaks this range to the upside, the instrument may start a new correction with the target at 10100.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.