What’s going on with the DAX? Despite strong NFPs, no new highs

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events 10 February 2020 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

After closing January below 13,000 points, driven mainly by fears and developments around the Coronavirus which pointed to increasing risks of a widespread pandemic, the DAX bulls once again took control by the end of last Tuesday once fears began to wane, bringing the all-time highs around 13,640 points into our focus again on Monday.

What’s certainly interesting is the mixed reaction among market participants to Friday’s solid Non-Farm Payrolls regarding the DAX30 CFD. NFPs in the US increased by 225,000 in January, following an upwardly revised 147,000 rise in the previous month, beating market expectations of 160,000.

Bulls weren’t capable of building strong momentum, making it possible for the German index to correct some of its gains of the last week with a potential target being found 13,380/400 points and slightly lower around 13,300 points.

Still, the mode stays bullish with the main focus on the upside lying on 13,640 points, the current all-time high.

If we rather sooner than later make it to new all-time highs and break above 13,640 points, targets on the upside can be found around 13,800 and 14,000 points.

Hourly chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Hourly chart (between January 21, 2020, to February 7, 2020). Accessed: February 7, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT

Daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on DAX30 CFD Daily chart (between October 26, 2018, to February 7, 2020). Accessed: February 7, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the DAX30 CFD increased by 9.56%, in 2016, it increased by 6.87%, in 2017, it increased by 12.51%, in 2018, it fell by 18.26%, in 2019, it increased by 26.44% meaning that after five years, it was up by 34.2%.

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By Admiral Markets

Will the Dollar’s Fabulous February Continue?

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

The Dollar index (DXY) has gained about 1.3 percent during the first trading week of February, and could advance further over the coming days. Having dipped below 97.2 on January 31, the DXY is now testing the 98.6 psychological level and is flirting with overbought territory, judging by its 14-day relative strength index.

The official release of US President Donald Trump’s $4.8 trillion election year budget, set to be announced on Monday, could still spell more gains for the Greenback. The fiscal spending plan is hoped to expand the world’s largest economy by three percent in 2021, according to a senior administration official. Buoyed by the already-resilient US economic data, judging by this past Friday’s January US non-farm payrolls data, further signs of potential outperformance by the US economy compared to its developed peers could propel the Dollar index towards the 99.0 psychological level.

Also this week, look out for Fed chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual monetary policy report before Congress which kicks off on Tuesday, as well as the January inflation and retail sales data due later in the week, as potential catalysts for more near-term Dollar moves.

 

AUDUSD attempts rebound from 2009 low

The Australian Dollar is attempting a recovery against the US Dollar, after AUDUSD reached its lowest level since 2009. Amid persistent concerns over the coronavirus outbreak and how it could affect the Chinese economy, Australia’s exposure to the world’s second largest economy is adding to the downward pressure facing the AUD. The economic pressures may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower interest rates at least once in 2020, with such dovish forecasts also adding to the softer bias for the AUD, which has already weakened some 4.5 percent against the Greenback so far in 2020.

 

Brent’s support may wane if OPEC+ doesn’t intervene

Although Brent crude has been trading around the mid-$50/bbl in recent sessions, it could explore a path towards the psychological $50/bbl level if OPEC+ decides not to trigger more supply cuts amid the coronavirus outbreak. Talk of an extraordinary meeting being held this month has petered out, although its regularly-scheduled March meeting in Vienna is expected to proceed. With the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee recommending that output be lowered by an additional 600,000 barrels per day through June, it remains to be seen whether major Oil producers will intervene to rebalance the markets, as the coronavirus outbreak dampens global demand for crude oil.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

 


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Stocks rally on easing monetary policy assumptions, but for how long?

By Hussein Sayed, Chief Market Strategist (Gulf & MENA), ForexTime

Last week, we learned that investors were still brave enough to continue with a ‘buy-the-dips’ mentality in equity markets. All three major US indices made new record highs on Thursday with the S&P 500 up 3.2% for the week, its best performance since June 2019. It wasn’t just Wall Street that saw solid gains, similar patterns were seen in Europe and Asia.

It seems investors have returned to risk assets, despite the spread of the coronavirus showing no evidence of abating. This clearly reflects their trust in central banks, in particular the Federal Reserve, who they believe will always step in when the global economy shows any signs of weakness.

This kind of way of thinking is alarming, as central banks cannot influence the supply side of the economy, especially when it’s hit by uncontrollable factors. If the coronavirus doesn’t get contained, the supply chains will be severely disrupted, not just in China but across the globe. While it is difficult at this stage to measure the effect on global growth and corporate earnings, there will definitely be a significant impact.

Even if the spread of the virus is controlled and we avoid hitting the tail risks, the cost of recovery is going to be high. Some economists are now fearing the global economy may experience it’s first quarter-on-quarter growth fall since the global financial crisis. When risk assets are priced for perfection, it’s difficult to believe they can hold for so long.

The Dollar’s value had been steadily appreciating even before the coronavirus outbreak, but it strongly rallied at the beginning of February taking it’s year-to-date gains to 2.3% against a basket of major currencies. Emerging market currencies followed a corresponding downward trajectory with the MSCI emerging market currency index lower by 1.6% since mid-January. This may complicate issues for many emerging economies who have huge borrowing in US Dollars.  It will also have a negative impact on US corporate earnings as a stronger dollar leads to currency losses from foreign sales and also makes products less competitive.

That said, investors do not need to panic and liquidate their equity portfolios, but it may be a good time to review their asset allocation, current positions and whether to consider buying insurance against a 10-15% drop in prices. Growth stocks will likely be hit the most in case the global economy slows significantly in Q1. Meanwhile, gold remains one of the preferred assets in difficult times so if it’s not a part of the investor’s portfolio it’s still not too late to add it.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


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Main US indexes pulled back despite strong jobs report

By IFCMarkets

Dollar strengthening intact

US stock market pulled back despite stronger than expected January jobs report. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% to 3327.71, rebounding 3.2% for the week. Dow Jones industrial dropped 0.9% to 29102.51. The Nasdaq slid 0.5% to 9520.51. The dollar strengthening continued as the US economy added above expected 225,000 new jobs in January. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, rose 0.2% to 98.68 and is higher currently. Futures on stock indexes point to mixed openings today.

FTSE 100 led European stock indexes retreat

European stocks ended lower on Friday on mixed report. Both GBP/USD and EUR/USD continued their declines on Friday with euro turning higher currently while Pound lower still. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.26% led by mining shares. The DAX 30 slid 0.45% to 13513.81 Friday as data showed German industrial output registered its biggest drop in more than a decade in December. France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1% and UK’s FTSE 100 slumped 0.5% to 7466.70.

Nikkei leads Asian indexes retreat

Asian stock indices are mostly down today. Nikkei fell 0.6% to 23685.98 despite resumed yen slide against the dollar. China’s markets are mixed as authorities promised tax cuts and subsidies to farmers, makers of medical supplies and other companies: the Shanghai Composite Index is up 0.5% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is down 0.3%. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index slipped 0.1% with Australian dollar climb against the greenback resuming.

A Brent down

Brent futures prices slide continues today. Prices fell on Friday: Brent for April settlement fell 0.7% to $54.47 a barrel Friday.

Gold up

Gold prices are extending gains today. April gold gained $4.3 to $1574.30 on Friday.

Market Analysis provided by IFCMarkets

 

Note:
This overview has an informative and tutorial character and is published for free. All the data, included in the overview, are received from public sources, recognized as more or less reliable. Moreover, there is no guarantee that the indicated information is full and precise. Overviews are not updated. The whole information in each overview, including opinion, indicators, charts and anything else, is provided only for familiarization purposes and is not financial advice or а recommendation. The whole text and its any part, as well as the charts cannot be considered as an offer to make a deal with any asset. IFC Markets and its employees under any circumstances are not liable for any action taken by someone else during or after reading the overview.

Oil & Gas Midstream MLP Offers ‘Multiyear Financial Performance/Flexibility’

The Energy Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   02/07/2020

A recap of Q4/19 and the outlook for 2020-2021 are provided in a Raymond James report.

In a Jan. 31 research note, Raymond James analyst Justin Jenkins reported that for Phillips 66 Partners LP (PSXP:NYSE), “upside in Q4/19 set the pace for 2020 visibility.”

“With the ability to layer growth onto steady base business cash flow (e.g., little ‘replacement’ capex needs), investors should have a high degree of confidence in multiyear financial performance/flexibility,” added the analyst.

Due to a solid Q4/19 performance and several positive project updates, Raymond James raised its 2020 EBITDA and discounted cash flow estimates on the master limited partnership (MLP) to $1,450 and $1,139 million, and $1,580 and $1,244 million for 2021 EBITDA/discounted cash flow.

Jenkins provided the bullet points from Q4/19 and discussed future growth.

Regarding its Q4/19 results, the MLP’s EBITDA was a beat and discounted cash flow was in line. Specifically, EBITDA was $345 million compared to Raymond James and consensus’ estimates of $327 and $326 million, respectively. The beat was due to strong terminal volumes. Discounted cash flow of $254 million was around Raymond James and the Street’s forecasts of $256 and $255 million, respectively.

Operationally during the quarter, the Gray Oak Pipeline commenced flowing and ramp-up will continue through Q2/20.

Jenkins highlighted “capital allocation decision-making as a key differentiator to the credit of Phillips 66 Partners.” How much to spend and on what are currently being debated throughout the midstream space. At this MLP, the discussion centers on the speed of distribution growth and whether organic growth can be supplanted by dropdown growth.

Looking forward, Jenkins noted that growth for the LP will be an “attractive” mix of primarily dropdown growth plus a smaller portion of organic growth. Organic growth will likely be capital efficient given the relationship to existing assets, and this is significant.

Dropdown growth will occur from the numerous projects in its sponsor, Phillips 66’s (PSX:NYSE), portfolio that it continues to develop, including Red Oak, Liberty, Sweeny fracks 2 through 4 and possibly frack 5. Its Gray Oak Pipeline commenced flowing in November 2019, and ramp-up will continue through Q2/20. “These assets provide an attractive growth runway and should transition to the MLP over time,” wrote Jenkins.

Other growth opportunities could come from mergers and acquisitions, expansions, integrations, bolt-ons and the like.

Finally, Jenkins pointed out that the MLP trades at a higher multiple than its large-cap peers. It is warranted, he added, due to its “impressive asset base, strong financial footing and supporting relationship with a very high-quality sponsor.”

Raymond James has an Outperform rating and a $67 per share target price on Phillips 66 Partners, whose stock has been trading at around $62.30 per share.

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Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures from Raymond James, Phillips 66 Partners LP, January 31, 2020

ANALYST INFORMATION

Analysts Holdings and Compensation: Equity analysts and their staffs at Raymond James are compensated based on a salary and bonus system. Several factors enter into the bonus determination, including quality and performance of research product, the analyst’s success in rating stocks versus an industry index, and support effectiveness to trading and the retail and institutional sales forces. Other factors may include but are not limited to: overall ratings from internal (other than investment banking) or external parties and the general productivity and revenue generated in covered stocks.

The analysts Justin Jenkins and J.R. Weston, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report, attest to the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report. In addition, said analyst(s) has not received compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.

RAYMOND JAMES RELATIONSHIP DISCLOSURES
Raymond James & Associates, Inc. makes a market in the shares of Phillips 66 Partners L.P.

( Companies Mentioned: PSXP:NYSE,
)

Explorer ‘Gearing Up to Increase Resource Base’ on Colombia Project

By The Gold Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   02/07/2020

The expected updated resource estimate is discussed in a ROTH Capital Partners report.

In a Feb. 3 research note, ROTH Capital Partners analyst Jake Sekelsky reported that GoldMining Inc. (GOLD:TSX) has “a strong balance sheet with catalysts on the horizon.”

The nearest upcoming potential stock mover, Sekelsky highlighted, is an updated resource estimate on GoldMining’s recently acquired Yarumalito project in Colombia, at which 18,540 meters were drilled historically. “Based on the historic resource estimate and exploration work at the project, we believe the project could host a significant resource base,” he added. As far as an impact on the company overall, it could boost its current worldwide resource to more than 28 million ounces of gold. The Yarumalito resource update is expected in Q1/20.

Sekelsky also noted that GoldMining could develop Yarumalito and its nearby La Mina and Titiribi gold projects in Colombia using a “hub-and-spoke strategy.” Further, this land package could be attractive to larger mining companies in the future.

In other news, Sekelsky wrote, GoldMining recently exercised outstanding warrants and thereby added CA$5.5 million to the balance sheet. “We believe the recent warrant exercise removed an overhang from the stock and note that the company is now well-funded to execute on its stated objectives for 2020,” the analyst commented.

Sekelsky concluded that “GoldMining remains well positioned to advance its portfolio of gold assets in the Americas, with particular emphasis on its Colombian assets.”

ROTH has a Buy rating and a CA$4.50 per share price target on Goldmining, whose stock is trading at around CA$1.63 per share.

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Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures from ROTH Capital Partners, GoldMining Inc., Company Note, February 3, 2020

Regulation Analyst Certification (“Reg AC”): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Shares of GoldMining Inc. may be subject to the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Penny Stock Rules, which may set forth sales practice requirements for certain low-priced securities.

ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months.

( Companies Mentioned: GOLD:TSX,
)

Cortexyme Secures $125M Private Placement Capital to Advance Clinical Development

By The Life Science Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   02/06/2020

Shares of Cortexyme Inc. traded 20% higher after the company reported that it secured an additional $125M in capital from a private placement. The firm intends to use the proceeds to fund current Alzheimer’s clinical trials and ongoing operations.

Clinical stage biopharmaceutical company Cortexyme Inc. (CRTX:NASDAQ), which concentrates its efforts on pioneering a disease-modifying therapeutic approach to treat Alzheimer’s and other degenerative diseases, yesterday announced that “it has entered into stock purchase agreements with a group of institutional investors and an entity affiliated with a member of Cortexyme’s Board of Directors in connection with a private placement of its common stock.”

The company reported that it expects to receive $125 million in gross proceeds prior to incurred transaction expenses. The firm advised that in exchange for investment capital, it will issue 2,500,000 shares of common stock at a purchase price of $50.00 per share. The price was based upon an agreed upon average volume weighted common share price since January 1, 2020 and represents a 9.6% premium to the closing price of the company’s common stock on February 5, 2020.

The Company noted that it plans to utilize the net proceeds received primarily to advance clinical development, and for general corporate purposes. The firm indicated that the private placement, which is subject to certain conditions, is expected to close on Monday, February 10, 2020.

Cortexyme is based in South San Francisco, Calif. and describes its business as “a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company pioneering a novel disease-modifying therapeutic approach to treat a key underlying cause of Alzheimer’s and other degenerative diseases.” The company’s research is focused on targeting a specific, infectious pathogen found in the brain of Alzheimer’s patients that has been tied to neurodegeneration and neuroinflammation in animal models. Cortexyme’s lead small molecule is an investigational medicine named COR388 that has advanced through preclinical and Phase 1b testing. The firm is presently conducting the GAIN Phase 2/3 clinical trial of COR388 in patients affected with mild to moderate Alzheimer’s disease.

Cortexyme Inc. has a market capitalization of around $1.2 billion with approximately 26.85 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 5.2%. CRTX shares opened 10% higher today at $50.20 (+$4.56, +9.99%) over yesterday’s $45.64 closing price. The stock has traded today between $50.20 to $57.89 per share and is presently trading at $55.70 (+$10.06, +22.04%).

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Disclosure:
1) Stephen Hytha compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. He or members of his household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. He or members of his household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.
6) This article does not constitute medical advice. Officers, employees and contributors to Streetwise Reports are not licensed medical professionals. Readers should always contact their healthcare professionals for medical advice.

( Companies Mentioned: CRTX:NASDAQ,
)

Coverage Resumed on Canadian Producer Following Acquisition

By The Gold Report

Source: Streetwise Reports   02/07/2020

A review of the transaction and its implications are provided in a BMO Capital Markets report.

In a Feb. 3 research note, analyst Brian Quast reported that BMO Capital Markers resumed coverage and lowered its target price on Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. (KL:TSX; KL:NYSE) to CA$61 per share following its acquisition of Detour Gold. In comparison, Kirkland Lake Gold is trading around CA$49.75 per share.

BMO decreased its target price on Kirkland Lake Gold for two reasons, Quast wrote. One was to account for the increased risk tied to Kirkland incorporating the Detour assets into its own. The second was to get Kirkland Lake Gold’s valuation closer to that of its peers as it moves toward becoming a senior gold producer.

However, Quast highlighted that the Detour purchase was positive, “given that the long-life asset is a good strategic fit for Kirkland Lake’s asset portfolio and that the transaction is immediately accretive to shareholders on a net asset value basis (NAV),” by about 26%.

Quast reviewed the Kirkland Lake-Detour deal and how it affects BMO’s model on the acquiring company.

In the transaction, each single Detour Gold share was exchanged for 0.4343 share of Kirkland Lake Gold; about 77 million shares were issued in all. “Kirkland Lake Gold now has about 289 million shares outstanding with an approximately CA$15.6 billion market capitalization,” noted Quast.

The analyst indicated that cash flow following the merger is estimated to be neutral in 2020 but accretive, by about 14%, in 2021. BMO expects Fosterville will drive Kirkland Lake Gold’s near-term cash flow generation.

Quast relayed that BMO’s model of the Detour Lake mine, albeit conservative, outlines production of 13,800,000 of gold over a 21-year life of mine at an average all-in sustaining cost of CA$871 per ounce. This assumes BMO metals prices and a 5% discount rate. BMO assigned 50% of Kirkland Lake Gold’s NAV to the Detour Gold assets.

BMO has a Market Perform rating on Kirkland Lake Gold.

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Disclosure:
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: None. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
4) The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article until three business days after the publication of the interview or article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases.

Disclosures from BMO Capital Markets, Kirkland Lake Gold, February 3, 2020

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Analyst’s Certification
I, Brian Quast, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.

Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Company Specific Disclosures
Disclosure 5: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services within the past 12 months from Kirkland Lake Gold.
Disclosure 6B: Kirkland Lake Gold is a client (or was a client) of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Capital Markets Limited or an affiliate within the past 12 months: B) Non-Investment Banking Securities Related Services
Disclosure 8A: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate has a financial interest in 1% or more of any class of the equity securities of Kirkland Lake Gold.

For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please click here.

( Companies Mentioned: KL:TSX; KL:NYSE,
)

This week in monetary policy: New Zealand, Sweden, Belarus, Serbia, Uganda, Mexico & Peru

By CentralBankNews.info

    This week – February 9 through February 15 – central banks from 7 countries or jurisdictions are scheduled to decide on monetary policy: New Zealand, Sweden, Belarus, Serbia, Uganda, Mexico and Peru.
    Following table includes the name of the country, the date of the next policy decision, the current policy rate, the result of the last policy decision, the change in the policy rate year to date, and the rate one year ago.
    The table is updated when the latest decisions are announced and can always accessed by clicking on This Week.
WEEK 7
FEB 9 – FEB 15, 2020:
NEW ZEALAND12-Feb1.00%001.75%         DM
SWEDEN12-Feb4.50%005.50%         DM
BELARUS12-Feb9.00%0010.00%
SERBIA13-Feb2.25%003.00%         FM
UGANDA13-Feb9.00%0010.00%
MEXICO13-Feb7.25%008.25%         EM
PERU13-Feb2.25%002.75%         EM

 

THIS Is What a Run on the Bank for Precious Metals Looks Like…

By Money Metals News Service

The explosive price action seen in palladium recently is indicative of a physical shortage.

Put simply, available inventories are failing to keep up with demand (largely from the automotive industry).

Palladium Price Chart

Palladium Price Chart

According to Refnitiv GFMS, the palladium market will be under-supplied by 883,000 ounces this year.

Stresses on the physical market are showing up in spiking lease rates, illiquidity, widening bid/ask spreads, and disconnections between quoted spot prices and actual physical prices. Most importantly, the deficit in palladium supply is manifesting in the form of rising prices.

Palladium hit a record, briefly touching the $2,500 level last month. And despite selling off a little in recent days, Bank of America Securities analysts see the metal’s chronic supply deficit pushing prices up to $3,500 an ounce before the bull market ends.

The point of this article, however, isn’t to promote palladium as a great buy at these lofty levels. Chasing an uptrend this late into its potential blowoff phase is risky.

When metals markets top, they don’t merely level off. They tend to reverse violently.

That said, the opportunity palladium presents for metals investors is that it charts a similar path forward for platinum and silver (and to a lesser extent gold, which shouldn’t be expected to move as dramatically).

Since 2016, when palladium began the year trading around $500/oz, prices have quintupled.

Silver bottomed in 2016 just below $14/oz. Prices advanced strongly that year before falling back into a major trading range.

A quadrupling would take silver over $50 – and that would likely just be the warm-up phase that finally establishes new all-time highs. Then the explosive phase will begin that sees new high after new high, week after week – just like we’ve seen in palladium over the past year.

Platinum Autocatalyst

Platinum should benefit from substitution
in auto catalysts now using palladium.

As yet, there isn’t much evidence that is happening. But the longer a price gap of more than $1,000 between the two catalytic metals persists, the more motivated automakers will be to embark on redesigns of existing equipment to accommodate much cheaper platinum.

Major automakers such as BMW are investing heavily in hydrogen-electric fuel cell technology as a way of meeting zero-emissions goals. Once too expensive to be practical, costs for fuel cell powertrains are expected to become competitive with conventional powertrains over the next few years.

1 Oz American Platinum Eagle

Money Metals sells numerous low-premium
platinum coins and bars.

The upshot for platinum is that it is used in the hundreds of small cells that make up a fuel cell stack. If fuel cell vehicles catch on, demand for platinum could go into overdrive.

In the meantime, the ongoing run on the physical palladium bank will be something to behold. It’s exactly what many gold and silver bugs who have been calling out paper manipulation and price suppression schemes have been predicting.

Although the markets for gold and silver remain relatively quiet now, they could soon become energized by palladium and the larger exposure of futures markets that produce multiples more contracts for physical metal than can ever be delivered.

Precious metals analyst Craig Hemke wrote recently, “Understand that palladium, just like gold and silver, is overseen by the bullion banks, which are responsible for physical delivery in London… The Banks manage a fractional reserve system of just in time physical delivery. As gold and silver investors, we await the day when a ‘run’ on these bullion banks exposes the lack of physical metal behind this system. The current price action in palladium suggests the possibility that this ‘run’ may have already begun.”

Palladium Table Block

If you happen to own physical palladium, you’re in the driver’s seat. You can sell anytime to a dealer like Money Metals or hold out for a desperate buyer who may be willing to pay a sizeable premium over spot just to get his hands on some ounces of the scarce metal.

When there is a run on the bank for silver, we expect many types of coins and other bullion products to command unusually large premiums over spot.

The most susceptible to large premium spikes are no-longer minted historic coins such as pre-1965 90% silver dimes, quarters, and half-dollars.

The good news is that they and most other silver bullion products can currently be had at very low premiums over spot prices. You’d be wise to stock up while fantastic bargains can still be had…then hang on tight for the ride ahead.

 


The Money Metals News Service provides market news and crisp commentary for investors following the precious metals markets.