InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

At the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair is forming a pre-reversal divergence, but may yet move upwards a bit in the short-term. The target of this short-term growth may be close to several significant post-correctional extensions between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.3199 and 1.3228 respectively. After reaching the target, the price may be corrected to the downside towards the retracements of 23.6% and 38.2% at 1.3055 and 1.2966 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the situation is pretty similar. The pair may start a new ascending movement only after breaking the local high at 1.3160. However, if we take into account that before starting the current movement the price formed the divergence, the current situation may be considered as the start of a new correction. The closest target is the retracement of 23.6% at 1.30325; the next one – 38.2% at 1.2941.

EUR JPY “Euro vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see at H4 chart, the EUR/JPY pair started a sideways correction. If the price breaks the current high at 130.76, it may continue growing towards the post-correctional extension at the retracement of 161.8% at 132.20. But even more ambitious upside target may be the retracement of 261.8% at 134.47. In the nearest future, the correction may yet continue towards 127.57, which is at the retracement of 38.2%.

At the H1 chart, the situation is similar.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has formed another consolidation range above 1.1736 and right now is trading to break it to the downside. Possibly, the price may reach 1.1700 and then grow to return to 1.1736. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 1.1630.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair is consolidating below 1.3113. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation channel to the downside, the market may fall to reach 1.3077; if to the upside – continue growing with the target at 1.3220.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is consolidating around 0.9692. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow to reach 0.9826; if to the downside – start another correction with the target at 0.9630.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair is forming the fifth descending structure. Possibly, today the price may grow towards 111.06 to test it from below and then fall to reach the target at 109.90 to complete the first descending wave. Later, in our opinion, the market may be corrected towards 112.20.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading to rebound from 0.8010. We think, today the price may fall towards 0.7920. After that, the instrument may consolidate, break this range to the downside, and then continue falling to reach 0.7850.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is still consolidating around 59.40. Taking into account that the Oil prices are still rising, the pair is expected to continue falling towards 58.64.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has broken its consolidation range to the upside. Possibly, the price may grow to reach 1275.65. Later, in our opinion, the market may be corrected towards 1260.00.

BRENT

Brent has formed another consolidation range, broken it upwards, and may continue growing to reach 53.30. Possibly, the price may be corrected to return to 51.00. After that, the instrument may continue growing and extend the ascending wave towards 55.50.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Adinah Brown

The UK might have thought that it was the cool kid on the ‘bloc’, making a dramatic exit that would perhaps be followed by tears of those remaining, but the reality is that they haven’t had it easy since they decided to leave the European Union.

Britain looks today a lot less appealing to investors than ever before. Following Theresa May’s and the Conservative party’s quick election to deliver a mandate for Brexit, it seems that Britain’s Brexit minister, David Davis, is carving a path to leave the single market, despite many hoping to have a “soft Brexit”.

There are quite frankly many things debilitating Britain’s economic outlook. Let’s start with the fact that Theresa May is incredibly weakened, and while there is talk of another election, the Conservative party would be silly to want one since it might lose, plus changing PMs in the middle of Brexit negotiations could be truly destabilizing. This scenario provides investors two lose-lose choices really: a weak Conservative government, or the possibility of a Labour government that plans to raise taxes on corporate profits and financial transactions, and nationalize several critical industries.

Add to this that since the Brexit vote took place, the British economy has been slow, wages are being squeezed, the pound has fallen and a loss of business confidence is prevalent. The reality is that in the UK, the pessimists are outnumbering the optimists.

To top it all off, the The European Court of Justice has just ruled that each single national and regional parliament across the EU must approve new trade deals with Singapore, which could set a precedent for how the UK will be treated during its EU negotiation. While the government had promised voters all of the benefits of European Union membership with none of the costs and hardships, this may become hard to achieve, something that would compromise even further the popularity of the current government. If in fact Britain’s post-Brexit trade deals will require approval by every government individually, including those who were of the opinion that the UK should be punished for leaving the Union, Jeremy Corbyn might be the next British PM.

So long to Tony Blair’s Britain where foreign investors and capital were welcomed. This is the Brexit era.

About the Author:

Adinah Brown is a professional writer who has worked in a wide range of industry settings, including corporate industry, government and non-government organizations. Within many of these positions, Adinah has provided skilled marketing and advertising services and is currently the Content Manager at Leverate.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Brazil Real Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Currency speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the Brazil Real futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Brazil Real futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 4,330 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 25th. This was a weekly decline of -606 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,936 net contracts.

Brazilian real speculators have trimmed their positions for three out of the past four weeks although the net level has been able to remain not falling into bearish territory.

Brazil Real Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -5,552 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 663 contracts from the total net of -6,215 contracts reported the previous week.

BRLUSD:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the BRLUSD Currency Pair closed at approximately $0.3155 which was a decrease of $-0.0012 from the previous close of $0.3167, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators cut back on their net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week for a third straight week and pushed bets into short territory, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -2,505 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 25th. This was a weekly lowering of -4,557 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,052 net contracts.

US dollar index net positions have now fallen for six out of the past seven weeks and are now in an overall short or negative territory for the first time since June 10th 2014 when net positions totaled -38 contracts.

US Dollar Index Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -2,800 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 4,211 contracts from the total net of -7,011 contracts reported the previous week.

UUP:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the UUP ETF, which tracks the price of US Dollar Index, closed at approximately $24.37 which was a decrease of $-0.12 from the previous close of $24.49, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here is a short summary and this week’s links (below) to the latest Commitment of Traders changes.

– US Dollar Speculators continued to decrease USD bets lower for 5th week, net short for 2nd week

– WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets advanced for a 4th week

– 10-Year Note Speculators trimmed bullish bets , down 4 out of 5 weeks

– Gold bets rebounded sharply this week

– S&P500 Speculators add to bullish bets, up 7 out of the past 8 weeks

– Silver Speculator bets rebounded after 6 down weeks

– Copper bets continue higher, up 4th out of the past 5 weeks

FX Speculators US Dollar bets fall, in bearish position for 2nd week

US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-3.92 billion as of Tuesday

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to decrease their buying of the US dollar this week. See full article

WTI Crude Oil Speculators continued to push bullish bet higher this week

The non-commercial contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 423,338 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a lift of 26,879 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article

Gold Speculators sharply boosted their bullish net positions this week

The large speculator contracts of gold futures totaled a net position of 90,831 contracts. This was a weekly advance of 30,693 contracts from the previous week. See full article

10-Year Note COT Speculators slightly trimmed bullish bets this week

The large speculator contracts of 10-year treasury note futures totaled a net position of 280,684 contracts. This was a weekly reduction of -1,645 contracts from the previous week. See full article

S&P500 Speculators continue to raise bullish net positions

The large speculator contracts of S&P 500 futures totaled a net position of 1,989 contracts. This was a rise of 710 contracts from the reported data of the previous week. See full article

Silver Speculator bets bounced back after 6 down weeks

The non-commercial contracts of silver futures totaled a net position of 19,417 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a weekly gain of 10,041 contracts from the previous totals. See full article

Copper Speculators raised bullish bets for 4th out of 5 weeks

The large speculator contracts of copper futures totaled a net position of 24,257 contracts. This was a weekly boost of 8,927 contracts from the data of the previous week. See full article

Article by CountingPips.com

The Commitment of Traders report data is published in raw form every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows the futures positions of market participants as of the previous Tuesday (data is reported 3 days behind).

To learn more about this data please visit the CFTC website at http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-3.92 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to decrease their buying of the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar position totaling $-3.92 billion as of Tuesday July 25th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-2.01 billion from the $-1.91 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Speculative bets for the dollar have now fallen for five straight weeks as the dollar resides in bearish territory for a second consecutive week. The dollar fell into a bearish position last week for the first time since May 17th 2016 when net positions totaled $-4.19 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies saw only one weekly change above the 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

• Canadian dollar positions jumped by over +18,000 contracts and rose for a ninth straight week. CAD positions are now in bullish territory for a second straight week after crossing over last week and have gained by over +125,000 in the past nine weeks.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the Japanese yen (5,430 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (2,117 contracts), Canadian dollar (18,570 contracts), Australian dollar (5,018 contracts) and the Mexican peso (351 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets fell last week versus the dollar were the euro (-479 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-9,724 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-1,176 contracts).

Table of Weekly Open Interest, Commercials, Speculators & Small Traders:

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators boosted their net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 423,338 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 25th. This was a weekly boost of 26,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 396,459 net contracts.

WTI speculative positions have risen for four consecutive weeks and by +96,150 contracts over that time frame to push the net position to its best level since April 18th (+443,883 contracts).

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -422,066 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -23,746 contracts from the total net of -398,320 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $9.81 which was a gain of $0.27 from the previous close of $9.54, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Treasury speculators edged their bullish net positions lower in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 280,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday July 25th. This was a weekly decline of -1,645 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 282,329 net contracts.

The 10-year note speculative positions have fallen four of the past five weeks but remain in highly bullish territory above the +250,000 net contract level for seven straight weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -97,813 contracts on the week. This was a weekly advance of 34,231 contracts from the total net of -132,044 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $106.47 which was a rise of $0.45 from the previous close of $106.92, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report