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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Parallel Lives: The U.S. Stock Market and The New York City Subway. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.
US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-5.32 billion as of Tuesday
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their bets for the US dollar last week. See full article
The non-commercial contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 486,765 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a lift of 63,427 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article
The large speculator contracts of gold futures totaled a net position of 129,672 contracts. This was a weekly advance of 38,841 contracts from the previous week. See full article
The large speculator contracts of 10-year treasury note futures totaled a net position of 210,880 contracts. This was a weekly reduction of -69,804 contracts from the previous week. See full article
The large speculator contracts of S&P 500 futures totaled a net position of -391 contracts. This was a decrease of -2,380 contracts from the reported data of the previous week. See full article
The non-commercial contracts of silver futures totaled a net position of 30,759 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a weekly gain of 11,342 contracts from the previous totals. See full article
The large speculator contracts of copper futures totaled a net position of 31,215 contracts. This was a weekly boost of 6,958 contracts from the data of the previous week. See full article
The Commitment of Traders report data is published in raw form every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows the futures positions of market participants as of the previous Tuesday (data is reported 3 days behind).
US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-5.32 billion last week
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their bets for the US dollar last week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling $-5.32 billion as of Tuesday August 1st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-1.4 billion from the $-3.92 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).
US dollar aggregate speculative bets have now fallen for six straight weeks and the overall level is at the most bearish standing since May 10th 2016 when bearish bets totaled -6.19 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
The individual major currencies saw only one weekly change above the 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.
Canadian dollar positions rose by over +14,000 contracts and gained for a tenth straight week. CAD positions are in bullish territory for a third straight week after crossing over two weeks ago and have risen by over +139,747 contracts in the past ten weeks.
The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the Japanese yen (9,293 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (2,990 contracts), Canadian dollar (14,025 contracts), Australian dollar (4,339 contracts), New Zealand dollar (133 contracts) and the Mexican peso (659 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the euro (-8,205 weekly change in contracts) and the British pound sterling (-3,255 contracts).
Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:
Currency
Net Commercials
Comms Weekly Chg
Net Speculators
Specs Weekly Chg
EuroFx
-108,561
6,974
82,637
-8,205
GBP
23,107
1,949
-29,452
-3,255
JPY
124,932
-13,532
-112,196
9,293
CHF
-1,544
739
1,440
2,990
CAD
-61,484
-19,968
40,638
14,025
AUD
-79,588
-8,379
60,713
4,339
NZD
-37,567
-387
34,938
133
MXN
-120,259
-1,059
113,549
659
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
British Pound Sterling:
Japanese Yen:
Swiss Franc:
Canadian Dollar:
Australian Dollar:
New Zealand Dollar:
Mexican Peso:
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Large speculators sharply raised their net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 486,765 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 1st. This was a weekly advance of 63,427 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 423,338 net contracts.
Crude speculators have now raised their bullish positions for five straight weeks and by a total of 159,577 contracts over that time to the highest net level since March 7th when net positions totaled 508,525 contracts.
WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:
The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -485,135 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -63,069 contracts from the total net of -422,066 contracts reported the previous week.
USO:
Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $10.09 which was a rise of $0.28 from the previous close of $9.81, according to unofficial market data.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
Large speculators lowered their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets this week for a second consecutive week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 210,880 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 1st. This was a weekly reduction of -69,804 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 280,684 net contracts.
The drop in speculative bets for the 10-Year Note futures brings the net position under the +250,000 level for the first time in eight weeks.
10-Year Note Commercial Positions:
The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -45,056 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 52,757 contracts from the total net of -97,813 contracts reported the previous week.
IEF ETF:
Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $106.95 which was an advance of $0.65 from the previous close of $106.30, according to unofficial market data.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
Large speculators sharply advanced their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 129,672 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 1st. This was a weekly lift of 38,841 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 90,831 net contracts.
This week’s rise follows a gain of +30,693 contracts last week for a two week gain of +69,534 contracts. The gold speculative position is now at a five week high level.
Gold Commercial Positions:
The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -143,385 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -40,042 contracts from the total net of -103,343 contracts reported the previous week.
GLD ETF:
Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $120.65 which was a boost of $1.73 from the previous close of $118.92, according to unofficial market data.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
Large speculators decreased their bets in the S&P500 futures markets this week and pushed their overall position into negative territory, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -391 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 1st. This was a weekly decrease of -2,380 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,989 net contracts.
Speculative positions had risen seven out of the previous eight weeks before this week’s downfall pushed bet level back into negative territory for the first time in eight weeks.
S&P500 Commercial Positions:
The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -17,476 contracts on the week. This was a weekly rise of 2,091 contracts from the total net of -19,567 contracts reported the previous week.
SPY ETF:
Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $247.32 which was a decrease of $-0.10 from the previous close of $247.42, according to unofficial market data.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
Large speculators boosted their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week for a second straight week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 30,759 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 1st. This was a weekly lift of 11,342 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,417 net contracts.
This was the second straight week of net positions gaining by over +10,000 contracts and pushed the overall net position to the highest level in five weeks.
Silver Commercial Positions:
The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -39,667 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -10,135 contracts from the total net of -29,532 contracts reported the previous week.
SLV ETF:
Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $15.79 which was an increase of $0.20 from the previous close of $15.59, according to unofficial market data.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
Large speculators added to their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.
The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 31,215 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 1st. This was a weekly lift of 6,958 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,257 net contracts.
Speculative net positions have now gained by 19,209 contracts in the past three weeks and have advanced to the highest level since February 28th when net positions totaled 37,998 contracts.
Copper Commercial Positions:
The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -32,561 contracts on the week. This was a weekly drop of -9,220 contracts from the total net of -23,341 contracts reported the previous week.
JJC ETF:
Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the JJC iPath Bloomber Copper ETN, which tracks the price of copper, closed at approximately $32.88 which was a gain of $0.47 from the previous close of $32.41, according to unofficial market data.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The EUR/USD pair has completed the ascending correctional structure. We think, today the price may fall towards 1.1853 and reach the downside border of the range. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation channel to the downside, the market may fall to reach the local target at 1.1760; if to the upside – continue growing towards 1.1914.
GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”
The GBP/USD pair has broken its consolidation range to the downside. Possibly, today the price may grow towards 1.3187 and then start another descending structure with the target at 1.3000.
USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”
The USD/CHF pair is still consolidating around 0.9673. Possibly, today the price may fall to reach 0.9600 and then start another growth towards the upside border of the range. If later the instrument breaks it to the downside, the market may be corrected to reach 0.9530; if to the upside – continue growing with the target at 0.9822.
USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”
The USD/JPY pair has reached another new low and right now is consolidating again. Possibly, the price may test 110.22 from below and then fall to reach 109.72 or even extend this structure towards 109.45.
AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”
The AUD/USD pair is forming the third descending wave; it has already completed the correction towards 0.7986. We think, today the price may rebound from this level and fall to reach the local target at 0.7896. Later, in our opinion, the market may grow with the target at 0.7968.
USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”
The USD/RUB pair is forming another consolidation channel at 60.23. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation channel to the downside, the market may continue falling inside the downtrend; if to the upside – grow with the target at 61.70.
XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”
Gold is trading towards the upside border of the consolidation range. Possibly, the price may reach 1273.52 and then fall towards 1265.20. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation channel to the upside, the market may reach 1283.87; if to the downside – start another correction with the target at 1244.00.
BRENT
Brent is consolidating at the top of the ascending structure. We think, today the price may fall towards the downside border of the range at 50.80. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may be corrected towards 48.30; if to the upside – continue growing with the target at 54.70.
Attention! Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.
