Author Archive for InvestMacro – Page 503

Large S&P500 Speculators added to bearish net positions for 5th week

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators raised their bets against the S&P500 futures markets again this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -5,839 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 12th. This was a weekly lowering of -1,811 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,028 net contracts.

Bearish speculative positions have risen for five straight weeks and to the most bearish level since June 6th when net positions totaled -7,343 contracts.

S&P500 Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -846 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 1,421 contracts from the total net of -2,267 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $250.05 which was a gain of $3.99 from the previous close of $246.06, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.comWeekly COT Report

 

 

Silver Speculators sharply lifted bullish net positions, up for 8th week

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators continued to raise their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 74,987 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 12th. This was a weekly jump of 10,816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,171 net contracts.

Speculators have now boosted positions by over +10,000 contracts for the past two weeks while overall bullish positions have risen for eight consecutive weeks to the highest level since April 25th of this year.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -84,681 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decline of -7,993 contracts from the total net of -76,688 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $16.89 which was an edge down of $-0.02 from the previous close of $16.91, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.comWeekly COT Report

Copper Speculators reduced bullish net positions for 1st time in 9 weeks

By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators cut back on their bullish net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 46,614 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 12th. This was a weekly lowering of -2,251 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,865 net contracts.

Copper bullish positions had an impressive streak of eight straight weekly gains before this week’s pullback. Despite the shortfall, net positions remain above the +40,000 net contracts level for a fourth straight week.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -51,812 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -173 contracts from the total net of -51,639 contracts reported the previous week.

JJC ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the JJC iPath Bloomber Copper ETN, which tracks the price of copper, closed at approximately $34.57 which was a fall of $-1.12 from the previous close of $35.69, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.comWeekly COT Report

 

 

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 15.09.2017 (GOLD, USD/CHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the H4 chart of the XAU/USD pair, the price is being corrected to downside. By now, the correction has already reached the reached the retracement of 23.6%. The next targets of this descending correction are the retracement of 38.2% and 50.0% at 1299.22 and 1281.20 respectively. The resistance for the current movement is still close to the local high at 1357.46.

As we can see at the H1 chart, the pair has formed the convergence and completed the downtrend. Right now, the price is being corrected to the upside. The closest targets of the correction may be the retracements of 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% at 1336.44, 1341.32, and 1347.02 respectively.

 

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the pair has formed the convergence and right now is starting a new ascending correction with the closest target at the retracement of 38.2% and 50.0% at 0.9771 and 0.9880 respectively. However, at the same time one shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the price may start a new descending impulse. The local resistance for this descending impulse is at 0.9418. But if the pair breaks this level, it may move towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 0.9316 and 0.9233 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the pair is finishing the ascending impulse and forming the divergence. By now, the price has already been corrected by 38.2%. the descending correction may continue to reach the next targets at the retracements of 50.0%, 61.8%, and 76.0% at 0.9562, 0.9528, and 0.9418 respectively.

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 15.09.2017 (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/RUB, GOLD, BRENT)

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has expanded the consolidation range to the downside and reached its target. Right now, the market is consolidating to break the top of the previous ascending impulse. Possibly, the price may grow towards 1.1970. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may reach 1.1970; if to the downside – continue falling inside the downtrend with the target at 1.1770.

 

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair has broken the consolidation range to the upside and right now is still moving upwards. We think, today the price may extend this structure towards 1.3447. Later, in our opinion, the market may be corrected to reach 1.3150 and then form another ascending structure with the target at 1.3500.

 

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is being corrected towards 0.9573. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 0.9727.

 

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair is being corrected towards 109.27. Later, in our opinion, the market may grow to reach 110.25. If later the instrument breaks this trading range to the downside, the market may fall towards 107.00; if to the upside – continue growing with the target at 112.00.

 

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is still falling. We think, today the price may form the fifth descending structure towards 0.7928. After that, the instrument may grow to reach 0.8020.

 

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is falling towards 57.00. Later, in our opinion, the market may grow to reach 57.50 and form another consolidation range. If later the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may reach 56.50; if to the upside – continue moving upwards with the target at 58.42.

 

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is consolidating around 1330; it has once again expanded the range to the downside and then returned to 1331. Possibly, the price may form another descending structure with the target at 1305 and then grow to return to 1331.

 

BRENT

Brent has reached the local target of the ascending wave and right now is falling. Possibly, the price may reach 54.50 and then grow towards 55.20, thus forming another consolidation channel. If later the instrument breaks this channel to the downside, the market may start another correction towards 51.00; if to the upside – reach 56.15.

 

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

EURUSD: the market is balanced and the rate is poised to deviate from the LB

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Previous:

On Thursday the 14th of September, trading on the euro/dollar currency pair closed slightly up. In the European session, the single currency fell against the dollar to 1.1838. The pair shed 50 pips in the space of a minute after consumer inflation data was released in the US. Consumer prices turned out higher than expected and higher than the previous value.

The consumer price index in the US in August grew by 0.4% MoM and 1.9% YoY (forecast: 0.3% MoM, 1.8% YoY, previous: 0.1% MoM, 1.7% YoY).

25 minutes later, however, buyers had recovered all their losses. The majors were brought out of negative territory by the British pound, which shot up by more than 200 pips after the BoE meeting and later ignored the US data. Traders may have harboured some doubts over whether the Fed would raise interest rates in December.

US 10Y bond yields reacted with a jump to the US data, but its subsequent slide weighed down on the dollar, while having a positive effect on the euro, which recovered to 1.1922.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:50 UK: MPC member Vlieghe’s speech.
  • 12:00 Eurozone: trade balance (Jul).
  • 14:00 UK: BoE quarterly bulletin.
  • 15:30 USA: retail sales (Aug), NY Empire State manufacturing index (Sep), retail sales ex autos (Aug).
  • 16:15 USA: capacity utilisation (Aug), industrial production (Aug).
  • 16:30 UK: composite leading indicator (Jul).
  • 17:00 USA: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Sep).

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The main piece of news for all markets today is North Korea’s latest ballistic missile launch. The US, Japan, and South Korea have requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council to discuss the matter. Safe haven assets reacted sluggishly to the news, but demand for them could rise during the US session before the weekend starts.

At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1915. The price is currently sitting on the balance line. This means that the market is balanced on the hourly timeframe and the price is ready to deviate from this by either 0.62% or 1%.

The price is currently perched on the 67th degree. Trading volume is very low in Asia. The trend line runs through the 1.1934 mark, and the 90th degree runs through 1.1947. The euro remains under pressure from the euro/pound cross after yesterday’s BoE meeting. I’m allowing for a drop to around 1.1895, although in terms of the bigger picture, I’m expecting to see the euro rise to 1.1960 over the course of the day. The candlestick’s long tail with a 1.1839 low rather ruins the picture for the bears.

From today’s news items, I’d give particular importance to the BoE’s quarterly report. I’ll warn you now that some strong movements are expected on the pound at this time. The pound could easily drop as far as 1.3250 with everyone having forgotten about yesterday’s decision (the crowd effect). In the States, data on retail sales is to be released, as well as on industrial production, the New York manufacturing index, and Michigan University’s consumer sentiment index.

Extreme Weather & Energy Markets: What’s Next?

By Elliott Wave International

Given the recent hurricanes and intense volatility across commodity markets, anticipating fluctuations in crude and natural gas has rarely been this challenging. In this new interview, Steve Craig, the editor of our Energy Pro Service, explains how he uses the Elliott Wave Principle to make sense of it all.


 

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Extreme Weather & Energy Markets: What’s Next?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Investors: Taking the Road “Less Traveled” Has Its Perks

By Elliott Wave International

Using the same market indicators everyone else uses can lead you to make the same mistakes everyone else makes. Here’s a chart that proves the point — you won’t see this one elsewhere.


 

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Investors: Taking the Road “Less Traveled” Has Its Perks. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Admiral Markets Upgrades its Trading Offer on the MT5 Platform

Admiral Markets has upgraded its trading offer on the MetaTrader 5 platform that now includes expanded coverage of markets, with all Forex instruments and CFDs on cash indices, commodities, single shares, bonds and cryptocurrencies.

This update to MetaTrader 5 includes improved margin requirements, with the increase of the maximum leverage on existing FX pairs and commodity CFDs up to 1:500 (currently 1:100) and the removal of volume-based commission. With MetaTrader 5, the minimum trade size for FX is reduced to 0.01 lots (currently 0.1 lots) and the maximum order size for FX instruments is increased to 100 lots (currently 50 lots), enabling the possibility of position hedging.

Persons new to trading are recommended to go through Admiral Markets’ free educational trading course – Forex 101. This nine-video online course covers everything from the basics to more advanced strategies and techniques in trading.

For more information, please visit Admiral Markets’ official announcement.

Risk disclosure: Forex and CFD’s carry a high level of risk and losses may exceed your initial deposit. Admiral Markets UK Ltd. recommends you seek advice from an independent financial advisor to ensure that you understand the risks involved with Forex, CFD’s, Margin and Leveraged trading.

 

 

The $10 Trillion Resource North Korea Can’t Tap

By OilPrice.com

North Korea may not have proved petroleum reserves, but it’s estimated that the secluded belligerent nation sits on reserves of more than 200 minerals—including rare earth minerals—worth an estimated up to US$10 trillion.

Of course, there are no official reports on how much North Korea’s mineral wealth really is, but according to rough estimates from earlier this decade, Pyongyang’s deposits of coal, iron ore, zinc, copper, graphite, gold, silver, magnesite, molybdenite, and many others, are worth between US$6 trillion and US$10 trillion, as per South Korean projections reported by Quartz.

Before the fall of the USSR, North Korea had prioritized mineral mining and trade with fellow communist partners. But the mining industry has been in decline since the early 1990s, due to decades of neglect and lack of funds for infrastructure development to support mining activities.

Now North Korea’s mining sector trade is under a full ban by the UN, as Pyongyang has stepped up both nuclear missile tests and belligerent rhetoric in recent months. The UN started banning trade in metals last year, but there have been reports that Kim Jong-Un’s regime has grown increasingly inventive in circumventing sanctions.

The UN introduced last month a full ban on coal, iron, and iron ore, after having banned trade in copper, nickel, silver, and zinc in November last year. China also implemented the coal import ban, cutting off an important economic lifeline of the regime. Coal trade has generated over US$1 billion in revenue per year for North Korea, the U.S. Department of Treasury said at the end of August, when it slapped sanctions on Russian and Chinese entities for supporting the regime.

On Monday, following North Korea’s latest nuclear test on September 2, the UN Security Council banned the supply, sale, or transfer of all condensates and natural gas liquids, and banned Pyongyang’s exports of textiles such as fabrics and apparel products. The latest sanctions, however, are not imposing a full oil embargo as the U.S. called for in recent weeks. The sanctions instead are capping refined petroleum products and crude oil supply, after the U.S. dropped its demand for full oil ban, to avoid China vetoing the UN resolution.

All the sanctions leading to Monday’s strongest prohibitions so far have been designed to stifle North Korea’s trade in minerals and cut off money for the regime.

North Korea has staked mostly on coal mining, the cheapest and easiest to mine, compared to precious metals or rare earth metals mining, for which Pyongyang has neither the funds nor the infrastructure or know-how to develop.

North Korea has sizeable deposits of some minerals. Its magnesite reserves are the second largest in the world behind China, and its tungsten deposits are likely the sixth-largest in the world, Lloyd R. Vasey, founder and senior adviser for policy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), wrote in April this year. North Korea sits on sizeable deposits of more than 200 different minerals, and “all have the potential for the development of large-scale mines”, Vasey said.

North Korea doesn’t have either the funds or the infrastructure to develop those resources. It’s also officially banned to export them.

Yet, “The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is flouting sanctions through trade in prohibited goods, with evasion techniques that are increasing in scale, scope and sophistication,” a UN report of a panel of experts from February this year concluded.

“Diplomats, missions and trade representatives of the Democratic Peoples’ Republic of Korea systematically play key roles in prohibited sales, procurement, finance and logistics. In particular, designated entities are trading in banned minerals, showing the interconnection between trade of different types of prohibited materials,” the panel’s report reads.

According to UN experts—as of February this year—North Korea had adapted to the stricter sanctions “through various tactics, including identity fraud.”

“Their ability to conceal financial activity by using foreign nationals and entities allows them to continue to transact through top global financial centres,” according to the report.

According to a more recent investigation by ABC Four Corners, North Korea has business interests in Asia, the Middle East, and even Europe, contrary to the common perception that it is a very isolated country. Office 39—one of the departments of its Workers’ Party—is “the ultimate slush fund”, reportedly generating up to US$1.6 billion annually for Kim’s lavish lifestyle, while 70 percent of people are food insecure.

“North Korea is very sophisticated in concealing the fact that it is, indeed, North Korea doing business overseas. It’s good at hiding in plain sight,” Andrea Berger, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the program.

Link to original article: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-10-Trillion-Resource-North-Korea-Cant-Tap.html

By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com