InvestMacro

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

Source: https://alpari.com/en/analytics/reviews/market_sessions/21983_26092017/

By Alexander Razuvaev, Alpari

By Adinah Brown

The best trade for the next 20 years is actually a much more complicated question than it appears on the surface. You would expect it to be simple, just invest in whatever has the highest ceiling, something that might be an emerging industry or country and hold until the multiples increase.

But the practical side of picking the best trade depends on another more important factor – the person that is making the trade. The best trade to hold relies much more on an individual’s circumstances, trading tendencies, risk profile and most importantly, how much they can afford to lose.

As any financial planner will tell you, there is no one size fits all approach to investing. A recently retired man living on a fixed income is looking to invest to create a long term secure income. In his case, the security and stability of the investment and income is more important than the return. For a young twenty-something, who is expecting to be employed throughout the 20 year period, the investment approach needs to be aggressive in order to build their wealth as quickly as possible. Time is on their side, so any short term drops or fluctuations are not a problem if the expected end return is desired. A young family might also be able to weather the ups and downs, but with a shorter timeframe until the money is likely to be needed, they cannot and should not invest as aggressively. These examples really only highlight the general differences in investing, without getting into tricky details like income, personal risk profile, financial situation, etc.

So, whilst it is impossible to tell you what the best trade is for you, we can try to touch on a few ideas that might have a bit of something for everyone. Let’s have a look into our crystal ball to decide on the best trade for the next 20 years…

Shares

Actually, this is based on looking into history rather than our crystal ball. Share trading is generally considered the best way to build wealth. Your 401K, Roth IRA, managed funds and the like are all stocked with shares, with good reason. Historically share trading has given higher returns than most other investment options. For example, the S&P 500 has given approximately 10% returns since 1928. So a good conservative method is to buy a low cost ETF that tracks the market. With the ETFs available today, you can get exposure to emerging markets or different market segments, allowing you to track those that might give the best returns.

A quick perusal of potential up and coming markets and sectors all have good long term potential. China and India, countries each with more than 1 billion people, have large educated workforces. China is generally expected to surpass the US as the world’s number one economy over the next 25 years. As the momentum increases, their shares will also pick up, making them relatively undervalued considering the long term prospects. China’s wealth is creating a massive middle class, just as the US did in the 50’s, when their economy was booming. To compare, a $1000 investment in the S&P 500 in 1950, would have netted more than $87,000 in 2007, excluding dividends.

Emerging technology and Cryptocurrencies

It is scary to predict the future. Technological changes in just the last 5 years have rendered the world we live in a totally different place. Wearable technology, mobile phones, AI, driverless cars and a plethora of other technologies are still emerging. At this stage it is early enough to jump on board without expecting to overpay. Shares in Intel’s recently acquired Mobileye, a market leader in driverless technology is a strong early bet, despite having a high multiple.

Could there be a segment more emerging than cryptocurrencies? Sure, at this stage we have missed the Bitcoin-for-5-cents era, but with new exciting ICO’s happening all the time, a discerning future focused eye will give you the chance to buy something else for 5 cents. If cryptocurrencies continue on their upward trajectory, sort out regulation and safety and really emerge as usable alternative to currency, that small investment could pay off big.

Reinvesting profits / Compound interest

Find a video on the power of compound interest, and you will understand why timeframe is actually the best friend of a trader. Reinvesting profits means that your annual return will be based on a higher amount. Every year this compounds until we start talking about insane levels of returns. Whatever you buy, holding and reinvesting is the best decision for a trader over the next 20 years.

About the Author:

Adinah Brown is a professional writer who has worked in a wide range of industry settings, including corporate industry, government and non-government organizations. Within many of these positions, Adinah has provided skilled marketing and advertising services and is currently the Content Manager at Leverate.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the GBP/USD pair is being corrected. By now, it has been corrected by 23.6%. The next targets of the correction may be the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 1.3319 and 1.3215 respectively. The closest resistance level is at 1.3657.

At the H1 chart, the situation is quite similar, but more detailed.

EUR JPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see at the H4 chart, after finishing the divergence, the EUR/JPY pair has been corrected by 23.6% and may continue this correction deeper. The targets of the correction may be the retracements of 38.2% and 50.0% at 132.95 and 132.52 respectively. The resistance level is at 134.40.

At the H1 chart, the situation confirms the H4 chart scenario.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair is growing towards 1.1958. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall to break 1.1909. the local target is at 1.1858.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair is still consolidating. After breaking this range to the downside, the price may fall towards 1.3222 and then resume growing with the target at 1.3444.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is falling towards 0.9686. After that, the instrument may grow to break the upside border of the range. The local target is at 0.9800.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair is still consolidating. We think, today the price may reach 111.82 and then grow towards 112.11. If the instrument breaks this range to the downside, the market may continue falling with the target at 109.57.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is consolidating near its lows. Possibly, the price may form another ascending structure towards 0.8000. Later, in our opinion, the market may fall to break 0.7912. The local target is at 0.7812.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is forming the fifth descending structure to reach the target at 56.54. Possibly, today the price may be corrected towards 57.87. After that, the instrument may continue falling to reach the above-mentioned target.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is moving downwards. The next target is at 1284.40. Later, in our opinion, the market may be corrected towards 1320.00.

BRENT

Brent has expanded its consolidation range to the upside. We think, today the price may fall towards 55.55 and then form another ascending structure to reach 57.00. After that, the instrument may start another correction with the target at 51.00.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Veselin Petkov, Alpari

See why there is no reliable standard of value for the stock market

By Elliott Wave International

Should investors rely on traditional ways of evaluating the stock market’s “proper value”? You might be surprised at what these four charts show.

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

Here is a short summary and this week’s links (below) to the latest Commitment of Traders changes.

– US Dollar Speculators increased USD bearish bets for 5th week

– WTI Crude Oil Speculator bets rebounded sharply this week

– 10-Year Note Speculators bullish bets were up for a 2nd week

– Gold bets dropped sharply after 8 weeks of gains

– Large S&P500 Speculators bets turned bullish this week

– Silver Speculator bets cooled off after 8 weeks of gains

– Copper Speculators decreased bets for a 2nd straight week

Forex Speculators continued to raise bearish US Dollar positions this week

US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-13.19 billion as of Tuesday

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to increase their bearish bets against the US dollar this week. See full article

WTI Crude Oil Speculators sharply boosted bullish net positions this week

The non-commercial contracts of WTI crude futures totaled a net position of 418,074 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a lift of 43,594 contracts from the previous weekly total. See full article

Gold Speculators lowered bullish net positions after 8 weeks of gains

The large speculator contracts of gold futures totaled a net position of 236,089 contracts. This was a weekly decline of -18,671 contracts from the previous week. See full article

10-Year Note Speculators added to bullish net positions for 2nd week

The large speculator contracts of 10-year treasury note futures totaled a net position of 270,120 contracts. This was a weekly increase of 18,441 contracts from the previous week. See full article

S&P500 Speculators boosted their bets to new bullish position this week

The large speculator contracts of S&P 500 futures totaled a net position of 869 contracts. This was a rise of 6,708 contracts from the reported data of the previous week. See full article

Silver Speculators decreased bullish bets for 1st time in 9 weeks

The non-commercial contracts of silver futures totaled a net position of 67,803 contracts, according to data from last week. This was a weekly fall of -7,184 contracts from the previous totals. See full article

Copper Speculators sharply lowered bullish net positions this week

The large speculator contracts of copper futures totaled a net position of 32,587 contracts. This was a weekly shortfall of -14,027 contracts from the data of the previous week. See full article

Article by CountingPips.com

The Commitment of Traders report data is published in raw form every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows the futures positions of market participants as of the previous Tuesday (data is reported 3 days behind).

To learn more about this data please visit the CFTC website at http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar net speculator positions fell to $-13.19 billion this week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to increase their bearish bets against the US dollar this week.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar position totaling $-13.19 billion as of Tuesday September 19th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-1.62 billion from the $-11.57 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

The aggregate US dollar position is down for five straight weeks and a whopping twelve out of the past thirteen weeks with the only gain coming on August 15th.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies had three weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

• British pound sterling bets jumped mightily by over +35,000 net contracts this week on the back of higher inflation and a possible interest rate increase coming. The GBP speculative standing is now at its best level since November 2015.
• Euro bets fell by over -10,000 bets for a second straight week and are down for three out of the last four weeks. Overall, euro bets are still in a bullish standing at +62,753 net contracts but at the lowest level in twelve weeks.
• Mexican peso bets dropped by over -40,000 contracts this week after speculators had pushed bullish positions to the highest speculative level of the year above +115,000 net contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the British pound sterling (35,924 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (5,975 contracts), Canadian dollar (8,347 contracts) and the Australian dollar (9,479 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the euro (-23,305 weekly change in contracts),  Swiss franc (-255 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-5,680 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-40,046 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large energy speculators sharply raised their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 418,074 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 19th. This was a weekly jump of 43,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 374,480 net contracts.

Speculative positions had fallen five out of the previous six weeks before this week’s surge higher. The overall bullish position is now back above the +400,000 net contract level for the first time in four weeks.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -419,937 contracts on the week. This was a weekly decrease of -40,622 contracts from the total net of -379,315 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $10.11 which was a rise of $0.24 from the previous close of $9.87, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article by CountingPips.com – Weekly COT Report