InvestMacro

By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar net speculator positions leveled at $-16.83 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised their bets for the US dollar last week following six straight weeks of declines.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $-16.83 billion as of Tuesday October 3rd, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly rise of $0.53 billion from the $-17.36 billion total long position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation (totals of the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc).

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

The individual major currencies had two weekly changes above the (+ or -) 10,000 contract mark this week in the speculators category.

• Japanese yen bets dropped by over -10,000 contracts for a second straight week as short bets rose to the highest level since August 8th when bets totaled -95,813 contracts.
• British pound sterling bets increased by over +10,000 net contracts for a third straight week. The recent gains brought overall GBP speculative bets into a bullish position for the first time since November of 2015 and this week’s gains pushed bullish bets to 19,949 net contracts.

The major currencies that improved against the US dollar last week were the euro (2,666 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (14,895 contracts), Canadian dollar (523 contracts), New Zealand dollar (65 contracts) and the Mexican peso (5,389 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined last week versus the dollar were the Japanese yen (-13,296 contracts), Swiss franc (-1,431 contracts) and the Australian dollar (-5,382 contracts).

Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

British Pound Sterling:

Japanese Yen:

Swiss Franc:

Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar:

New Zealand Dollar:

Mexican Peso:

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by CountingPips.com

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

WTI Crude Oil Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large oil speculators reduced their bullish net positions in the WTI Crude Oil futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of WTI Crude Oil futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 444,316 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 3rd. This was a weekly decline of -9,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 454,108 net contracts.

Speculative bets, despite this week’s pull back, remain well above the +400,000 net contract level for a third consecutive week.

WTI Crude Oil Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -452,216 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 7,109 contracts from the total net of -459,325 contracts reported the previous week.

USO:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the USO Crude Oil ETF, which tracks the price of WTI crude oil, closed at approximately $10.18 which was a decline of $-0.31 from the previous close of $10.49, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

10-Year Note Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large treasury speculators reduced their net positions in the 10-Year Note futures markets for a second straight week this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of 10-Year Note futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 232,156 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 3rd. This was a weekly fall of -24,470 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 256,626 net contracts.

Speculative positions have fallen below the +250,000 net contracts for the first time in four weeks while the net contract level has remained above the +200,000 contract threshold for twenty-two straight weeks.

10-Year Note Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -48,466 contracts on the week. This was a weekly gain of 72,567 contracts from the total net of -121,033 contracts reported the previous week.

IEF ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) closed at approximately $106.39 which was a loss of $-0.67 from the previous close of $107.06, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Gold Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large precious metal speculators again reduced their bullish net positions in the Gold futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Gold futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 203,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 3rd. This was a weekly decrease of -8,739 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 212,594 net contracts.

Speculative positions have now fallen for a third week to the lowest level since August 15th when net positions totaled +187,734 contracts.

Gold Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -224,423 contracts on the week. This was a weekly boost of 9,048 contracts from the total net of -233,471 contracts reported the previous week.

GLD ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the GLD ETF, which tracks the price of gold, closed at approximately $120.83 which was a shortfall of $-2.31 from the previous close of $123.14, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

S&P500 Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large stock market speculators decreased their net positions in the S&P500 futures markets to a new short position this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of S&P500 futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 3rd. This was a weekly decrease of -1,458 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,082 net contracts.

Speculative positions had only been in an overall long position for two weeks before falling back into a small short position this week.

S&P500 Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -505 contracts on the week. This was a weekly uptick of 2,862 contracts from the total net of -3,367 contracts reported the previous week.

SPY ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SPY ETF, which tracks the price of S&P500 Index, closed at approximately $252.86 which was a boost of $3.78 from the previous close of $249.08, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Silver Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large speculators lowered their net positions in the Silver futures markets for a third straight week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 59,179 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 3rd. This was a weekly decrease of -1,081 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 60,260 net contracts.

Speculative positions have now fallen below the +60,000 net contracts for the first time in five weeks after declining by a total of -15,808 contracts over the past three weeks.

Silver Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -68,717 contracts on the week. This was a weekly increase of 3,549 contracts from the total net of -72,266 contracts reported the previous week.

SLV ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the SLV ishares ETF, which tracks the price of silver, closed at approximately $15.71 which was a decline of $-0.20 from the previous close of $15.91, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Copper Non-Commercial Speculator Positions:

Large metals speculators raised their net positions in the Copper futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of Copper futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 33,829 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 3rd. This was a weekly increase of 3,693 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 30,136 net contracts.

Speculative positions rose after falling for the previous three weeks and still reside in a bullish level above the +30,000 contract threshold.

Copper Commercial Positions:

The commercial traders position, categorized by the CFTC as hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -39,789 contracts on the week. This was a weekly fall of -3,393 contracts from the total net of -36,396 contracts reported the previous week.

JJC ETF:

Over the same weekly reporting time-frame, from Tuesday to Tuesday, the JJC iPath Bloomber Copper ETN, which tracks the price of copper, closed at approximately $33.58 which was a gain of $0.45 from the previous close of $33.13, according to unofficial market data.

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

At the H4 chart, the downtrend continues. The AUD/USD pair is trading towards the retracement of 50.0% at 0.7728. The next target is the retracement of 61.8% at 0.7636. The resistance for the current movement is the high at 0.8123.

As we can see at the H1 chart, the pair is still falling towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 0.7750 and 0.7726 respectively. The more “ambitious” target is the retracement of 261.8%, which is the same as the one 0f 61.8% from the H4 chart.

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the USD/CAD pair is still moving to the upside. The price is trading towards the retracement of 38.2% at 1.2718. However, at the same time the instrument is forming the divergence, which may indicate a possible reverse. The support level is close to the low at 1.2057.

At the H1 chart, the pair entered the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8%. The next upside target is the retracement of 261.8% at 1.2680. Taking into account the divergence, we may assume that the main targets of a possible reverse or a correction may be the retracements of 50.0% and 61.8% at 1.2385 and 1.2308 respectively.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has rebounded from 1.1764 and started forming another descending wave with the target at 1.1660. Later, in our opinion, the market may start consolidating. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may be corrected towards 1.1764; if to the downside – fall to reach 1.1630.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair has broken its consolidation channel to the downside and may continue falling to reach 1.3055. Later, in our opinion, the market may form another consolidation channel. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may be corrected towards 1.3220; if to the downside – fall with the target at 1.2920.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair has broken its consolidation range to the upside. Possibly, the price may reach 0.9800. After that, the instrument may fall towards 0.9770 and complete the correction. Later, in our opinion, the market may start growing with the local target at 0.9845.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair is still consolidating around 112.71. According to the main scenario, the instrument may fall towards 112.27, break it, and then reach 111.50. An alternative scenario implies that the market may break 112.90 and continue growing with the target at 113.66.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair has reached the local downside target. We think, today the price may consolidate near the lows. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may be corrected towards 0.7920; if to the downside – fall with the target at 0.7731.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair is consolidating around 57.50. Possibly, today the price may fall to reach the local target at 57.00 and then start another correction to return to 57.50. After that, the instrument may continue falling with the target at 56.55.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold has broken 1270.00 downwards and right now is falling to reach 1265.60. We think, today the price may reach this level and then start another ascending correction with the first target at 1290.00.

BRENT

Brent has broken its consolidation range upwards. Possibly, today the price may test 56.33 from above and then grow with the first target at 57.33. This ascending should be considered as a part of the wave towards 59.85.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By GrowthAces.com

Macroeconomic overview:

• U.S. job growth probably slowed further in September as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma left displaced workers temporarily unemployed and delayed hiring, the latest indication that the storms undercut economic activity in the third quarter.
• The market expects the Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday will likely show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 90k jobs last month after rising by 156k in August. Our forecast is slightly more optimistic at 120k.
• The projected job gains for September would be the second smallest this year and well below the 175k monthly average for the 12 months through August.
• The employment report would join August consumer spending, industrial production, homebuilding and home sales data in suggesting that the hurricanes will dent economic growth in the third quarter.
• But there is no doubt that a weak employment report should not change views the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December. Fed Chair Janet Yellen cautioned last month that the hurricanes could “substantially” weigh on September job growth, but expected the effects would “unwind relatively quickly.”
• The Federal Reserve will need to raise U.S. interest rates further to keep the economy on track to full employment and the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Esther George said. She added that waiting too long for another rate hike may force the Fed to raise rates aggressively later, sending the economy into recession, or could foster financial imbalances if investors respond to low rates by placing even riskier bets.
• The long-term trend in annual U.S. economic growth may be as low as 1.5%, San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams said, a somber view that implies perpetually low interest rates and a difficult hurdle for the Trump administration’s promised economic surge. Williams said the Fed does need to continue raising short-term rates, with unemployment low and a conviction on his part that a recent lull in inflation will prove temporary. Williams said he does not need to see inflation itself improve to support another rate hike this year, as long as other data answer the question of whether the economy continues to grow. Long-term rates should rise as well as the central bank reduces its long-term asset holdings, he said.
• Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said he is still penciling in one more rate hike this year and three next year.
• Yesterday, the Constitutional Court ordered the suspension of Monday’s meeting of the Catalan Parliament, when local MPs were expected to vote on independence. Also, Banco Sabadell stated that it will move its headquarter (but not its staff) out of Catalonia and other banks based in the region are planning the same. While the risk of a near-term accident has probably decreased, we still expect a big confrontation between Madrid and Barcelona next week.

Technical analysis and trading signals:

• The break and close below 1.1720, 38.2% fibo of the June-September rise on Thursday increases bears’ confidence. The EUR/USD has continued to slide and makes a new trend low in late Asia/early Europe.
• As we have signaled for some time, 50% fibo of 1.1119-1.2092 at 1.1605 is next support eyed and probably the bears’ target. We think, however, that this level will not be broken and using current drop to open a long position for long-term target at 1.2400, which we think is a fair value for EUR/USD, could be a good idea.
• EUR-USD is likely to remain range-bound in the next days, waiting to take its cues from the yield market. For the latter, theUS CPI numbers on Friday next week will be the key thing to watch.

VIP Traders Club members should expect to receive forex and precious metals trading signals updates at least twice a day. We will send you:

1. Buy and sell forex, precious metals signals (entry level, target, stop-loss)
2. Suggested position size that you can easily adjust to your trading account size – this would help you in risk management and you will survive longer drawdown periods
3. Early heads-up about the potential trading opportunities or rationale to taken positions ( fundamental analysis, technical analysis )
4. Forecasts of most important macroeconomic indicators prepared by our economists and econometricians.

JOIN VIP TRADERS CLUB NOW!

About the Author:

By GrowthAces.com – Daily Forex Trading Strategies