InvestMacro

Article By RoboForex.com

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7785; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test the downside border of the cloud at 0.7800 and continue moving downwards to reach 0.7685. Another signal to confirm this scenario is the price’s testing the upside border of the descending channel. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7850. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.8010.

NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.7080; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7120 and then continue moving downwards to reach 0.6980. Another signal to confirm this scenario is the price’s testing the upside border of the descending channel. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7155. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7325.

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2500; the instrument is still moving above Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue growing. We should expect the price to test the upside border of the cloud at 1.2495 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.2650. Another signal to confirm this scenario is the price’s testing the downside border of the ascending channel. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.2450. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2370.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has reached the target of the correction. Possibly, today the price may start another descending wave with the target at 1.1630. The first target is at 1.1730.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair has almost finished the correction. We think, today the price may start forming another descending wave towards 1.2920. The first target is at 1.3125.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is moving upwards to reach 0.9772. Later, in our opinion, the market may form another descending structure towards 0.9700 and complete the correction. After that, the instrument may start growing to reach the target at 0.9850.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair has completed four structures of the descending wave. Possibly, today the price may form the fifth one towards 111.44. Later, in our opinion, the market may move to the upside and reach 112.60.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is being corrected towards 0.7821. After that, the instrument may form another descending structure with the target at 0.7660.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair has returned into the consolidation channel. If later the instrument breaks this channel to the downside, the market may continue the fifth wave with the target at 56.55; if to the upside – continue the correction towards 58.67 and then fall inside the downtrend to reach 56.55.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is consolidating around 1285.00. If later the instrument breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow towards 1311.00; if to the downside – fall to reach 1260.00.

BRENT

Brent is forming another ascending wave. Possibly, the price may reach the first target at 57.33 and then start another correction towards 56.11. Later, in our opinion, the market may continue growing with the target at 59.50.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By GrowthAces.com

Macroeconomic overview:

• In a much-anticipated speech to the Catalan parliament late on Tuesday, regional leader Carles Puigdemont made only a symbolic declaration of independence, calling for talks with Madrid in a gesture that eased fears of immediate unrest in the heart of the euro zone. Spanish Foreign Minister Alfonso Dastis said today that there was room for negotiations within the framework the country’s existing constitution.
• Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said he wants to see more signs of upward inflation before raising interest rates again, but that low long-term borrowing costs may limit how far and fast rates can be raised. Kaplan, who votes this year on Fed policy, appeared to be wrestling with how to balance the costs of leaving rates low against the potential dangers of raising rates too fast. He repeated his concern that globalization and technology are keeping inflation muted, despite unemployment that sank in September to 4.2%. While near-full employment is putting some upward pressure on inflation, he said on Wednesday, those secular forces are acting as headwinds.
• Investors were awaiting the release of minutes of the September Federal Reserve policy meeting later in the session. The Fed had signalled at the meeting that it may raise interest rates for a third time this year even with inflation staying below its 2% goal, so we should expect minute to be hawkish. But with the Fed funds futures almost fully pricing in the likelihood of a rate hike in December and the recent spike in Treasury yields losing momentum, hawkish minutes could be not enough for the dollar to renew its advance. We think that U.S. CPI data on Friday will play more important role.

Technical analysis and trading signals:

• The EUR/USD continues to rise and broke above 14-day exponential moving average today. The Ichi cloud top at 1.1894 is the nearest EUR/USD bulls’ target. The pair will have to break above 23.6% fibo of June-September rise, which is a resistance level now at 1.1862.
• We stay long for 1.2400.
• We are waiting for Friday’s U.S. CPI data – if we do not see renewed USD strength we will raise our trailing stop-loss and recommend increasing the position size.

AUD/USD: Australian consumers optimism jumped in October survey

Macroeconomic overview:

• A measure of Australian consumer sentiment jumped to its highest this year in October as an outbreak of optimism about the economic outlook and family finances overcame months of caution. The index reading of 101.4 meant optimists outnumbered pessimists for the first time since November last year. The pick-up will be a relief to policy makers after a shock slide in retail sales for August sparked concerns that consumers were going on strike.
• While employment growth has accelerated markedly this year, it was not accompanied by a revival in wages, clouding the outlook for household incomes.
• The better mood could be positive for the struggling retail sector, with the survey’s index of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item rising 3.7% in October.
• The outlook on the economy improved markedly with the index for the next 12 months up 7.1%, and that for the next five years rising 1.4%.
• The survey’s measure of family finances compared to a year ago edged up 1.0% in the month, but was still down 6.1% on October last year. Still, the measure of finances over the next 12 months fared better with an increase of 4.2% from September.
• The improved numbers reinforced market expectations the next move in interest rates would be upward, albeit not for some time yet. A hike in the 1.5% cash rate is not fully priced in until October next year. Still, local bond yields seemed attractive enough to investors at home and abroad. A new issue of AUD 3.5 billion in government 2022 bonds sold on Wednesday was well subscribed, drawing bids worth AUD 12.9 billion. Australian 10-year bonds pay 2.84%, a premium of 48 basis points over comparable U.S. debt.

Technical analysis and trading signals:

• Daily RSI is biased up and the AUD/USD broke above 7-day exponential moving average today. We are waiting for a close above that level now.
• We keep our bid at 0.7730 and will consider raising it if we see a close above 7-day ema at the end of the day.

VIP Traders Club members should expect to receive forex and precious metals trading signals updates at least twice a day. We will send you:

1. Buy and sell forex, precious metals signals (entry level, target, stop-loss)
2. Suggested position size that you can easily adjust to your trading account size – this would help you in risk management and you will survive longer drawdown periods
3. Early heads-up about the potential trading opportunities or rationale to taken positions ( fundamental analysis, technical analysis )
4. Forecasts of most important macroeconomic indicators prepared by our economists and econometricians.

JOIN VIP TRADERS CLUB NOW

About the Author:

By GrowthAces.com – Daily Forex Trading Strategies

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By Elliott Wave International

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the mid-term uptrend has been corrected by 23.6%. In the short-term (after forming the convergence), the EUR/USD pair may be corrected to the upside a little bit. The next targets of this correction may be the retracements of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% at 1.1808, 1.1851, and 1.1894 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the situation is similar and confirms the H4 chart scenario. In the nearest future, the pair may start a short-term decline towards 1.1731.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair has formed the divergence and then started a new correction. The main targets of this correction may be the retracements of 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% at 111.98, 111.11, and 110.38 respectively. The resistance level is close to the high at 113.43.

At the H1 chart, the pair is being corrected sideways after finishing the descending impulse. If the price breaks the local low at 112.32, the next closest targets will be inside the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 112.14 and 112.02 respectively.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Senior Analyst at RoboForex

The US Dollar is still interesting and attractive to investors, despite the statistical fluctuations.

The US labor market statistics in September was surprising, but not as impressive as it might have been.

Improvements in the Unemployment Rate and the Average Hourly Earnings will allow the US Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy.

The first October week was quite effective for the American Dollar. The main currency pair updated the low at 1.1668 it reached on August 17th and then was corrected bit, but made perfectly clear that there might be more declines. If there is a reason, the “bears” will come quickly.

The US labor market statistics in September is astonishing. The numbers were expected to be quite high, but the market was really surprised by the readings it saw. The Unemployment Rate was 4.2% in September after being 4.4% the month before. This is the lowest value of the indicator since 2001, over 16 years. It’s highly unlikely to be a mistake: the Participation Rate increased up to 63.1% against 62.9% in August. It appears that the labor market is really feeling good.

Another positive thing is the growth of the Average Hourly Earnings. In September, it expanded by 0.5% m/m after adding 0.2% m/m in the previous month and against the expected reading of 0.3% m/m. On YoY, the indicator increased by 2.9%. That’s a very good result.

However, this is where good news ended. The Non-Farm Payrolls decreased by 33K, although it was expected to expand by 82K after adding 169K the month before. The report says that the decline in some industries likely reflected the impact of hurricanes Irma and Harvey, which made the country nervous last month. But if one takes a closer look at the NFP numbers published in July and August, one can see that the indicator was revised downwardly twice. If one adds the September reading to this period of time, the overall picture won’t be very promising. Still, the fact that the US labor market is usually pretty stable makes all above-mentioned numbers look not so horrible. It means that the September decline will be eliminated in October or November, unless there are some serious stresses of course.

The Unemployment Rate and the Average Hourly Earnings data shows that the inflation in the USA is rising. This, in its turn, supports the Federal Reserve in its intentions to tighten the monetary policy. After they published the September reports on the employment, expectations relating to the key rate increase in December 2017 increased up to almost 80%, according to the CME futures. This was the reason why the USD rose.

The best way to see investors’ attitude to the USD is the EUR/USD pair behavior. Let’s take a look at the H4 chart, which shows the downtrend. The key element of the current movement is the price’s consolidating around the support level, and one of the most possible scenarios implies that it may return to the upside border of the descending channel. One of the targets close to the resistance level is the retracement of 61.8% at 1.1875. If this scenario continues, we can expect the price to rebound from the upside border and resume falling to reach 1.16. also, we shouldn’t exclude a possibility that the instrument may break the current resistance level and start forming a new rising impulse. The main short-term target of this impulse will be the local high at 1.2092.

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Senior Analyst at RoboForex

Attention!

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By GrowthAces.com

Macroeconomic overview:

• ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said the European Central Bank should reduce its asset buys from next year with the aim of ending them altogether, as the factors holding down inflation are temporary. “For even if we phased out our net purchases of bonds entirely, some monetary accommodation would remain in place,” she said. “This is because we reinvest all the money from maturing bonds.”
• The ECB is due to decide on October 26 whether to continue bond purchases next year and signals coming from policymakers suggest that they will opt for lower volumes but also an extension of the scheme.
• The EUR/USD rose on hawkish comments by Lautenschlaeger. Also helping sentiment was strong data from Germany. Industrial output posted its biggest monthly rise in more than six years in August, data showed on Monday.
• The combined production of manufacturing, construction and energy increased by 2.6% on the month after edging down by 0.1% in July. The reading beat market expectations for a 0.7% rise. Data published on Friday showed that strong foreign demand, especially from clients outside the euro zone, drove a bigger-than-expected jump in industrial orders in August. The German economy grew 0.7% on the quarter in the first three months of the year and 0.6% from April to June, driven by increased household and state spending as well as higher investment in buildings and machinery. Recent data suggested the economy is firing on all cylinders again and set for solid growth in the third quarter.

Technical analysis and trading signals:

• The EUR/USD broke above the Tenkan and 7-day exponential moving average (1.1758) and a close above them today will suggest further upward move. The nearest bulls’ target could be 1.1894 cloud top.
• We stay EUR/USD long and think current levels are still attractive to buy this pair.

GOLD: Short term target at 1,299

Macroeconomic overview:

• Gold prices inched up to their highest in more than a week on Tuesday, drawing support from geopolitical tensions and a softer dollar.
• Russia and China called for restraint on North Korea on Monday after Trump warned over the weekend that “only one thing will work” in dealing with Pyongyang, hinting that military action was on his mind.
• Gold prices have been recently curbed by rising expectations for December rate hike. Fed funds futures showed traders were pricing in a nearly 90% chance of a rate hike in December, so monetary tightening at the nearest Fed meeting has been already almost fully priced in and this factor should not hamper gold prices gains. Higher interest rates tend to boost the dollar and weigh on the greenback-denominated gold.

Technical analysis and trading signals

• Spot gold targets USD 1,299 per ounce in the short term, as it has broken a resistance at USD 1,281. The resistance was provided by the 50% retracement of the uptrend from the July 10 low of to the September 8 high.
• A break above USD 1,299 could lead to a further gain to the September 26 high of USD 1,313.54. An important support area is USD 1,260-1,263.
• We suggest a long position with the stop-loss below that area.

VIP Traders Club members should expect to receive forex and precious metals trading signals updates at least twice a day. We will send you:

1. Buy and sell forex, precious metals signals (entry level, target, stop-loss)
2. Suggested position size that you can easily adjust to your trading account size – this would help you in risk management and you will survive longer drawdown periods
3. Early heads-up about the potential trading opportunities or rationale to taken positions ( fundamental analysis, technical analysis )
4. Forecasts of most important macroeconomic indicators prepared by our economists and econometricians.

JOIN VIP TRADERS CLUB NOW

About the Author:

By GrowthAces.com – Daily Forex Trading Strategies

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Article By RoboForex.com

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

At the H4 chart, the USD/CHF pair is trading above the 8/8 level at 0.9765. If the price breaks this level, it may resume moving downwards to reach the 5/8 one at 0.9582.

As we can see at the M15 chart, the pair has broken he downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue falling towards 0.9765.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

At the H4 chart, the USD/JPY pair is trading close to the 8/8 level at 112.50. Yesterday, the price failed to break this level. So, if the pair finally breaks t, the instrument may resume falling towards the 5/8 one at 109.37.

As we can see at the M15 chart, the pair has broken the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, may continue falling. However, the key level to break is 112.50.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.