InvestMacro

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Senior Analyst at RoboForex

In October, the Non-Farm Payrolls added 252K, although it was expected to expand by 313K. However, the September report was revised upwards (+15K) and sort of wore off the first impression of the statistics. The Average Hourly Earnings didn’t change; on YoY, it’s still 2.4%. This report also got investors’ attention: the predicted reading was 2.7% y/y. There was a similar situation this year, when the capital market focused on this very parameter and prevented the USD from being supported by other reports, which were pretty good. Another labor market report, the Unemployment Rate, managed to keep balance between pessimists and optimists among investors. The indicator decreased from 4.2% to 4.1%, which is the lowest reading over the last 16 years. Is it good? Sure thing.

The fact that the salaries didn’t change may interfere with the way the inflation is growing, at least as the Federal Reserve and the government expect it to. This is why the USD plummeted right after the statistics had been published. However, both the Federal Reserve and the White House are very careful in their predictions and they are not worried that the CPI is a bit behind the target they specified. No one is waiting for a miracle here.

If we link all key statistics parameters together, an average employment reading is a little bit lower than expected. But it is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve, which is going to raise the benchmark interest rate one more time in December. According to the CME futures, investors’ expectations of the rate hike are 100%.

The US Dollar remains strong and the EUR/USD pair still have chances to get stabilized close to 1.1600 by the end of the first decade of November.

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD pair is moving inside the descending channel. The current downside target is the support area between 1.1508 and 1.1486. After reaching this area, the price is highly likely to return to the upside border of the current channel at 1.1672. If the instrument rebounds from the resistance level, it may start a new descending impulse with the target at 1.1328.

Attention!

Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see at the H4 chart, the EUR/USD pair is still being corrected and may continue the downtrend. The next downside targets may be inside the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 1.1528 and 1.1500 respectively. We should note that inside the same area there are two other retracements, of 38.2% and 50.0% at 1.1512 and 1.1333 respectively, which show the correction of the previous long-term uptrend.

At the H1 chart, the situation is similar and confirms the scenario described above.

As we can see at the H4 chart, after the divergence, the USD/JPY pair has started a new correction, which has already reached the retracement of 23.6%. However, the uptrend may yet continue. If the price breaks the current high at 114.73, it may move towards the post-correctional extension area between the retracements of 138.2% and 161.8% at 115.14 and 115.39 respectively. In case the correction to the downside continues, its targets will be the retracement of 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% at 113.56, 113.20, and 112.83 respectively.

At the H1 chart, the situation is similar and confirms the scenario described above.

RoboForex Analytical Department

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Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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EUR USD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

At the H4 chart, the EUR/USD is still forming the descending channel with Shooting Star, Doji, Harami, and Engulfing reversal patterns at support and resistance levels to define its borders. After finishing another correction with Shooting Star and Doji patterns, the price resumed falling, reached the support level, and the started a new correction with Engulfing and Shooting Star patterns. The downside target is at 1.1555.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

At the H4 chart, the instrument is forming a new descending channel with Shooting Star, Engulfing, Doji, and Hammer reversal patterns to define it borders. The instrument was corrected towards the resistance level at 1281.45 with Harami and Long-Legged Doji patterns and then fell to reach the support one at 1265.70. Right now, the instrument is being corrected again and has already reached the resistance level at 1282.00. The downside target is still at 1265.70.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Trading opportunities on the currency pair: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s comfortable election victory in Japan has increased expectations that the central bank’s current monetary policy will remain in place. Both currencies are under pressure, so the pair is trading sideways. In my forecast, I’m expecting a breakout of the 134.50 resistance with a subsequent growth to 141.06 (high from June 2015) inside the 1-1 channel. The intermediate targets are 136 and 139. This scenario will not happen if the weekly candlestick closes below 129.50.

Background

The last idea on the EUR/JPY currency pair was published on the 27^th of March, 2017. At press time, the price was trading around the 119.66 mark. After a price rebound from the trend line, a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, and a reversal on the stochastic indicator, I was expecting the euro to rise to 124.00 with an intermediate target at 122.55. This failed to happen after the daily candlestick closed lower than 118.50. Coming under pressure, the euro dropped to 114.84, which marked the beginning of a 1956-pip rally in mid-April.

Current situation

After the price exited the 2-2 channel, the euro’s surge gathered pace. The euro rose on expectations that the ECB’s QE program would be reduced. The pair has been trading flat for the last few weeks. The Catalonian crisis is weighing negatively on the euro, as is the ECB’s decision to extend the QE program by 9 months.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s convincing election victory has increased expectations that the Bank of Japan’s current monetary policy is set to remain in place. Haruhiko Huroda’s term as governor of the Bank of Japan will come to an end in April next year. He is currently the frontrunner for the position and may well be reappointed to head the bank for another 5 years.

Both currencies are under pressure. Due to this, the price has stabilised at around 132.61. My forecast is predicting further growth to 141.06 (high from June 2015). Given that the AO indicator (3^rd window on the chart) is slightly overloaded, the flat will most likely continue until the end of November. The quicker the price returns to 134.50, the higher the likelihood of reaching 139 (162% of the downwards movement from 124.09 to 114.85). This growth won’t happen if the weekly candlestick closes below 129.50.

Fig 1. Weekly chart. Source: TradingView

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AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7653; the instrument is still moving below Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it may continue falling. We should expect the price to test the downside border of the cloud at 0.7653 and continue moving downwards to reach 0.7580. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be cancelled if the price breaks the upside border of the cloud and fixes above 0.7735. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7810.

NZD USD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

The NZD/USD pair is trading at 0.6992; the instrument is still moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it is moving sideways. We should expect the price to test the downside border of the cloud at 0.6865 and then continue moving upwards to reach 0.6920. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 0.6835. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6730. After breaking the upside border of the cloud and fixing above 0.6970, the price may continue growing.

USD CAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The USD/CAD pair is trading at 1.2770; the instrument is still moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, which means that it is moving sideways. We should expect the price to test 1.2725 and then continue moving upwards to reach 1.2850. However, the scenario that implies further growth may be cancelled if the price breaks the downside border of the cloud and fixes below 1.2675. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2580.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

Article By RoboForex.com

EUR USD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

The EUR/USD pair has formed the half of another descending wave. We think, today the price may form another consolidation range around 1.1600. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation range to the downside, the market may fall to reach the next target at 1.1530.

GBP USD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The GBP/USD pair has broken 1.3000 downwards. Possibly, today the price may form another consolidation range at the lows. If later the instrument breaks this consolidation channel to the downside, the market may continue falling to reach 1.2865.

USD CHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

The USD/CHF pair is still consolidating in the middle of the range. We think, today the price may form another ascending structure to break 1.0035. The target is at 1.0100. After that, the instrument may start another correction towards 0.9888.

USD JPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The USD/JPY pair has reached the local upside target and right now is falling towards 113.96. Later, in our opinion, the market may resume growing inside the uptrend with the target at 115.00 and then start another correction towards 112.40.

AUD USD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The AUD/USD pair is forming another descending wave towards 0.7615. After that, the instrument may consolidate at the lows. If later it breaks this range to the upside, the market may grow to reach 0.7815.

USD RUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

The USD/RUB pair has extended the wave and the correction towards 59.00. We think, today the price may consolidate and fall to reach 58.50. Later, in our opinion, the market may break the ascending channel and resume falling with the target at 56.55.

XAU USD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still falling; right now, it’s consolidating at 1270. Possibly, the price may continue falling inside the downtrend to reach 1250.

BRENT

Brent is moving upwards. Possibly, today the price may reach 62.50. After that, the instrument may start another correction with the target at 59.50.

RoboForex Analytical Department

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By Gabriel Ojimadu, Alpari

By Adinah Brown

You may have heard of the virtues of the buy and hold investing strategy, however, in a fast-paced, global market, buying a blue chip stock and holding it for years is becoming outdated. Cryptocurrencies are no longer purely speculative, but are showing robust returns for investors. Just as stock investors can see significant gains on an IPO (Initial Public Offering), ICOs (Initial Coin Offering) are increasingly becoming the best way to catch growth momentum and to see healthy returns in digital currency investments. Those who are new to trading ICOs may be surprised at the ease with which these investments can be made and the security and strength of ICOs as investments.

ICOs have risen in popularity as digital currencies such as bitcoin and ethereum are increasing in value. Given rising prices of these two cryptocurrencies, investors who want to gain a foothold in the digital currency market are looking for less expensive ways. ICOs are a logical next step, because they can be purchased at relatively low prices and provide outsized returns in a relatively short amount of time. Companies benefit from ICOs as a means to fund their operations and create growth.

As with all new investments, it is important to do research to identify the most viable opportunities. Companies undertaking ICOs release white papers that should provide thorough information about the company and the ICO for investors. Transparency is an essential quality to look for in a company offering an ICO. Understanding the company’s past performance, future direction, market and products is helpful to any potential ICO investor. In addition to finding out about the company, it is essential to be clear about the terms of the ICO itself. The white paper should describe the venture, the amount of money needed for the venture and how long the campaign will last.

The ICO trend is worth getting into sooner rather than later. Many investors who were skeptical about bitcoin in its early stages now regret not buying the digital currency when it was still available at a relatively low cost. While bitcoin prices have risen significantly, there is significant upside potential to ICOs. Investing in ICOs is not complicated, and involves buying a percentage of the cryptocurrency in exchange for other currencies, such as bitcoin. ICOs provide significant advantages, including less paperwork than many other types of investment, lower fees and smaller minimum investment amounts. In some cases, investors can get in on ICOs for just a few dollars, making it a relatively low risk investment option.

ICO investing is the answer for those who want to benefit from the rise of digital currencies but are looking for a strategy with significant upside potential. Investors familiar with IPOs can apply the same principles to ICOs, which involve a quick yet stable way of seeing a healthy return on an investment. Reading the company’s white paper thoroughly and familiarizing yourself with the terms of the ICO and the operations of the company is the first step towards finding the best ICO investment opportunity.

About the Author:

Adinah Brown is a professional writer who has worked in a wide range of industry settings, including corporate industry, government and non-government organizations. Within many of these positions, Adinah has provided skilled marketing and advertising services and is currently the Content Manager at Leverate.