InvestMacro

By Alpari.com

By Alpari.com

By CountingPips

We have just released our latest of our MT4 Indicators. This is an indicator that shows the Percent Change of price. It uses a separate indicator window and can add up to 3 lines.

See more and get it here.

By CountingPips – Custom Indicators & Premium Research

By CountingPips

We have just released our latest MT4 Indicator. It uses a moving average which changes color when price moves above it or below it.

See more and get it here.

By CountingPips – Custom Indicators & Premium Research

By George Prior

There are winners and losers from the Fed’s rate cut, the first in more than a decade – and U.S. and global investors now need to revise their portfolios, warns one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory organizations.

The warning from deVere Group’s International Investment Strategist, Tom Elliott comes as America’s central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points Wednesday.

Mr Elliott comments: “The Fed’s first rate in more than a decade had been widely expected, yet divides the markets’ opinion.

“U.S stocks have taken heart from a recent upturn in domestic economic data and from the prospect of the Fed and other central banks easing monetary policy over the coming months.

“This, it is argued, will help the current cycle of U.S. and global economic growth.

“However, the U.S Treasury market, is indicating that a recession is around the corner. The inverted Treasury yield curve is cited as ‘exhibit number one’ for this thesis.”

“Today’s decision by the Fed to cut rates suggests that while the policymakers believe the economy is looking in good shape, there are also some growth headwinds on the horizon and inflation is low, so a rate cut will act as a buffer.

He continues: “Where does this leave for U.S. and international investors?

“Investors can incorporate both opinions into a portfolio by owning growth-sensitive stocks and misery-loving government bonds.  This multi-asset approach is standard amongst long-term investors.

“Specifically, the rate cut will put further downward pressure on the U.S. dollar, with the Yen, Swiss franc and Euro likely to rise against the greenback.

“Emerging stock markets should gain the most from lower Fed rates and a weaker dollar, since the massive U.S. dollar debt many emerging market companies took on in the early years of this decade becomes cheaper to service and repay in local currency terms.

“U.S. exporters should also benefit, plus the battered British Pound may get some near-term relief from a Fed rate cut, particularly as the Bank of England seems unlikely to be cutting its own benchmark rates any time soon.”

Mr Elliott concludes: “U.S. and global investors now need to revise their portfolios to ensure that they are best-positioned to take advantage of  opportunities and mitigate the risks as we enter what is likely to be a new era of rate cutting for the Federal Reserve.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Today is the day for the US Fed to announce their rate decision and we believe the 25 basis point rate cut is the only option they have at the moment that will attempt to settle foreign market fears and allow for a suitable “unwinding” of the credit/debt “setup” we highlighted in Part I of this research post.

We believe out August 19 expectation of a global market PEAK and the beginning of a price reversion move is related to multiple aspects of the timing of this Fed move and the current global economic outlook.  The unwinding of this debt/credit bubble will likely take many more years to unravel.  Yet, right now the US Fed is trapped in a scenario they never expected to find themselves in.  Either continue to run policy that supports the US economy (where rates would likely stay between 1.75 to 2.75) over the next 5+ years or yield to the global market and attempt to address a proper exit capability for this debt/credit “setup”.

We believe global investors are expecting a massive collapse in the US stock market as a reaction to this move by the Fed and because of the expectation that another bubble has set up in the US.  But we believe the actual bubble is set up in the foreign markets and not so much in the US.  Yes, the US markets have extended to near all-time highs and the US consumer is running somewhat lean.  It would be natural for the US economy to revert to lower price levels and for the US economy to rotate as “price exploration” attempts to find true market support.  Yet, our fear is that the foreign markets are much more fragile than anyone understands at the moment and that a reversion in the US markets will prompt a potential collapse in certain foreign markets.

Weekly SPY chart

This Weekly SPY chart highlights what we expect to transpire over the next 6 to 8+ months.  We believe the August 19 peak date that we predicted months ago will likely start a process that will be tied to the US election cycle event (2020) and the US Fed in combination with global market events.  We believe a reversion price process is about to unfold that could be prompted into action over the next 2+ weeks by the US Fed, trade issues and global central banks.

If the US Fed drops the FFR by 25pb, the fragility of the foreign market debt/credit issues is not really abated or resolved.  It just allows for a bit of breathing room that may allow these foreign debtors enough room to wiggle out of some of their problems.  The US Fed would have to decrease rates by at least 75 basis point before any real relief will materialize for these foreign debtors.

Asian Currency Custom Index

This Asian Currency Custom Index used by our research team highlights the weakness in the foreign markets.  The recovery in 2018 is related to the Chinese/Asian currency market recovery that initiated in Feb/Mar 2018.  The recent weakness in this custom index is related to strengthening major market currencies (USD, CAD, JPY, CHF) in relation to weakening Asian currencies.  Notice how the price channels have set up to warn us that any further downside move will initiate a new “price exploration” phase that could see a -20% to -25% decrease in currency valuations – possibly much deeper.

We believe this is the real reason the US Fed is opting to decrease the FFR rate now and is not taking a more stern position related to US economic performance.  We believe the US Fed is, again, donning the “Superman cape” and attempting to Save The World from their own debt/credit mess.

We are holding to our original predictions and expectations.  We believe the US stock market indexes will enter a reversion price phase over the next few weeks that will prompt a downside price reversion toward recent lows (2018 levels or deeper).  We believe this process will end in early 2020 and that the lows established by this move will represent incredible opportunities for skilled technical traders.

Weekly Dow Jones chart

This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.

This Weekly Dow Jones chart highlights our expectations.  We believe a mild price rotation will start this move over the next 2~4 weeks before the August 19, 2019 date prompts a breakdown move.  After that date, we believe an extended downside price leg will continue to reach a price bottom near the end of 2019 or in early 2020.

Skilled traders understand how the global markets are setting up for incredible opportunities and how to identify where and when these opportunities are ripe for profits and this is where we can help you!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26^th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16^th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

By TheTechnicalTraders.com

Our Adaptive Dynamic Learning (ADL) predictive price modeling system is one of the most unique and incredible predictive price utilities anyone has ever seen.

Over the past 24+ months, the ADL system has been able to call nearly every market rotation in the US major indexes (the ES, NQ, and YM) as well as our incredible call in Gold from October 2018 till now.  There is really nothing on the planet that can make accurate predictions for future price activity like our ADL predictive modeling tool.

Weekly chart of the NQ – NASDAQ

This Weekly chart of the NQ (NASDAQ futures) highlights the ADL predictive modeling systems results from a price peak in late April 2019.  The results consist of 52 unique price instances that make up the future predictive price levels.  This prediction suggested that price would fall to levels near $7200 by May 27, 2019, then rally from that date to a peak level near August 19, 2019.  This new August 19 peak level will likely be near $8500 – nearly +500 pts from the current price level.

Traders that have setup short positions may feel quite a bit of pressure over the next 4+ weeks as this move higher extends to align with our ADL predictive modeling system.  Overall, we believe a volatile price period in the markets may extend near this August 19 prediction where price volatility will increase and a potential for a downside price rotation may occur.

Additional ADL predictive results suggest a downside potential for price to levels near $7200 as volatility increases near August 19, 2019.  These predictions are suggesting that the key date, August 19, 2019, will likely be the peak in the price for a period of time.  The downside predictions where the price is suggested to reach $7200 indicates the range of potential volatility after the August 19 peak.

We have been suggesting that traders continue to scale back long positions before this peak is reached.  Ideally, we urge traders to pull some profits off the table and to prepare for this potential rotation in price as well as to prepare for increased volatility near or after August 19, 2019.  Our extended research suggests deeper support is found near $6700 and we believe a volatility increase could drive prices towards these levels in a reversion price rotation.

As of right now, the most logical expectation for the price is for a continued upside price bias lasting 3 to 4 more weeks reaching a price peak near August 19, 2019 – just as we originally predicted. The Fed rate cut we just talked about could be what spurs the market on for this final exhaustion rally. As we near that critical date, we expect to see increased volatility throughout the global stock market and we would expect the VIX to begin a spike move higher.

Currently, an ADL price anomaly is setting up that may prompt a quick downside move on or after the August 19 date.  It is because of this price anomaly setup that we are suggesting the bottom for the price could be anywhere between $6500 and $7200 (ADL predicted levels).  In other words, get ready for some increased volatility and a very strong potential for a price reversion to unfold.

We have seen some really strange price action in small-cap stocks this week which I will cover shortly as well, so stay tuned!

CRUCIAL WARNING SIGNS ABOUT GOLD, SILVER, MINERS, AND S&P 500

In early June I posted a detailed video explaining in showing the bottoming formation and gold and where to spot the breakout level, I also talked about crude oil reaching it upside target after a double bottom, and I called short term top in the SP 500 index. This was one of my premarket videos for members it gives you a good taste of what you can expect each and every morning before the Opening Bell. Watch Video Here.

I then posted a detailed report talking about where the next bull and bear markets are and how to identify them. This report focused mainly on the SP 500 index and the gold miners index. My charts compared the 2008 market top and bear market along with the 2019 market prices today. See Comparison Charts Here.

On June 26^th I posted that silver was likely to pause for a week or two before it took another run up on June 26. This played out perfectly as well and silver is now head up to our first key price target of $17. See Silver Price Cycle and Analysis.

More recently on July 16^th, I warned that the next financial crisis (bear market) was scary close, possibly just a couple weeks away. The charts I posted will make you really start to worry. See Scary Bear Market Setup Charts.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS:

In short, you should be starting to get a feel of where each commodity and asset class is headed for the next 8+ months. The next step is knowing when and what to buy and sell as these turning points take place, and this is the hard part. If you want someone to guide you through the next 12-24 months complete with detailed market analysis and trade alerts (entry, targets and exit price levels) join my ETF Trading Newsletter.

Be prepared for these incredible price swings before they happen and learn how you can identify and trade these fantastic trading opportunities in 2019, 2020, and beyond with our  Wealth Building & Global Financial Reset Newsletter.  You won’t want to miss this big move, folks.  As you can see from our research, everything has been setting up for this move for many months.

Join me with a 1 or 2-year subscription to lock in the lowest rate possible and ride my coattails as I navigate these financial market and build wealth while others lose nearly everything they own during the next financial crisis.

As a technical analysis and trader since 1997, I have been through a few bull/bear market cycles. I believe I have a good pulse on the market and timing key turning points for both short-term swing trading and long-term investment capital. The opportunities starting to present themselves will be life-changing if handled properly.

FREE GOLD OR SILVER WITH MEMBERSHIP!

Kill two birds with one stone and subscribe for two years to get your FREE PRECIOUS METAL and get enough trades to profit through the next metals bull market and financial crisis!

Chris Vermeulen – TheTechnicalTraders.com

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is moving upwards; it has broken the consolidation range to the upside and may continue the correction with the short-term target at 1.1173 (an alternative scenario). In fact, the price may start plummeting towards 1.1075 at any moment.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is consolidating around 1.2150. If the price breaks this range to the upside at 1.2180, the instrument may start a new correction towards 1.2240; if to the downside at 1.2121– continue trading inside the downtrend with the target at 1.2000.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is moving upwards. Possibly, today the pair may break 0.9918 and then continue growing with the short-term target at 0.9942. Later, the market may start another correction towards 0.9820 and then form one more ascending structure with the first target at 1.0000.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is moving downwards. Today, the pair may fall to reach 108.37 and then start another growth towards 108.66. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to break 108.30 and then continue trading inside the downtrend with the short-term target at 108.00.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD has reached the key downside target at 0.6870; right now, it is moving upwards. Possibly, the pair may start a new correction with the target at 0.6977.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has finished the correction; right now, it is moving upwards to reach 63.88. Later, the market may start a new decline towards 63.21.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After completing the continuation pattern at 1426.26, Gold is moving upwards inside the third correctional wave with the target at 1436.57. After that, the instrument may fall to reach 1426.26 and then form one more ascending structure towards 1440.14.

BRENT

Brent is moving upwards. Today, the pair may reach the short-term target at 66.60. After that, the instrument may start a new decline towards 65.00 and then resume trading inside the uptrend with the first target at 67.60.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

It would be better to analyze GBPUSD in the daily chart. As we can see, after breaking the low at 1.2395, the pair is trading towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2022 and 1.1788 respectively. It’s interesting to note that 1.2395, which earlier was the support, is now the resistance.

The short-term scenario is shown on the H1 chart. After finishing the descending impulse, the pair is starting a new short-term pullback. The support is the low at 1.2118. The correctional targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 1.2213, 1.2272, and 1.2320 respectively.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the daily chart, there is a convergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible reverse after the price has reached 76.0% fibo. The targets of this pullback may be 23.6% and 38.2% fibo at 121.67 and 122.62 respectively. The instrument may yet break the support at 120.04, but only after completing the pullback.

In the H4 chart, the pair is being corrected after finishing the previous descending impulse. By now, the correction has already reached 38.2% fibo and may continue towards 50.0% and 61.8% fibo at 121.52 and 121.87 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.11448
• Open: 1.11545
• % chg. over the last day: +0.12
• Day’s range: 1.11479– 1.11611
• 52 wk range: 1.1111 – 1.2009

EUR/USD currency pair began to recover after a prolonged fall. The trading instrument has updated local maxima. At the moment, EUR/USD quotes are consolidating in the range of 1.11350-1.11600. Investors have taken a wait before the Fed’s monetary policy decision. For the first time since 2008, the regulator is expected to cut interest rates. We recommend to pay attention to the comments and rhetoric of the representatives of the Central Bank. Financial market participants will also evaluate a number of important economic releases. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 31.07.2019:

• – Labour Market Report (GER) – 10:55 (GMT+3: 00);
• – Consumer Index (EU) – 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – GDP Report (EU) – 00:00 (GMT+3:00);
• – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul) (US) – 15:15 (GMT+3:00);
• – Fed Interest Rate Announcement (US) – 21:00 (GMT+3:00);

Indicators do not provide accurate signals: 50 MA crossed 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the positive zone and continues to rise, indicating a further correction of the EUR/USD quotes.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the %K line is above the %D line, which also indicates bullish moods.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.11350, 1.11150, 1.11000
• Resistance levels: 1.11600, 1.11850, 1.12100

If the price consolidates above 1.11600, expect further recovery toward 1.12000-1.12200.

Alternatively, the price can drop toward 1.11000.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.23748
• Open: 1.22147
• % chg. over the last day: -1.28
• Day’s range: 1.21182 – 1.22258
• 52 wk range: 1.2118 – 1.3385

GBP is still under pressure due to the growing risks of hard Brexit. There are aggressive sales on the GBP/USD currency pair. During yesterday’s and today’s trading, the drop in quotes exceeded 230 points. The trading instrument reached two-year lows. At the moment, the key support and resistance levels are 1.21200 and 1.22000. We expect a further decline in the GBP/USD currency pair and recommend to keep track of current information on the issue of Brexit. Open positions from the key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 31.07.2019 is calm.

Indicators signal the strength of sellers: the price has fixed below 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone and below the signal line, which gives a strong signal to sell GBP/USD.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.21200, 1.20500
• Resistance levels: 1.22000, 1.22650, 1.23000

If the price consolidates below 1.21200, expect a further decline toward 1.20800-1.20600.

Alternatively, the quotes can correct toward 1.22500-1.22700.

Registration

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.31650
• Open: 1.31634
• % chg. over the last day: -0.03
• Day’s range: 1.31560 – 1.31772
• 52 wk range: 1.2727 – 1.3664

CAD has stabilized after a rather long growth. At the moment, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading in a flat. Local levels of support and resistance are 1.31500 and 1.31800. The financial market participants expect additional drivers. Today we recommend to pay attention to economic reports from the USA. Trading instrument has the potential for further growth. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 31.07.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is located near the 0 mark.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the overbought zone, the %K line crossed the %D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.31500, 1.31200, 1.30900
• Resistance levels: 1.31800, 1.32000

If the price consolidates above 1.31800, expect further growth toward 1.32200-1.32400.

Alternatively, the quotes can drop toward 1.31250-1.31000.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 108.779
• Open: 108.612
• % chg. over the last day: -0.17
• Day’s range: 108.501 – 108.650
• 52 wk range: 104.97 – 114.56

The technical pattern on the USD/JPY currency pair is still ambiguous. The trading instrument is consolidating. Currently, the local support and resistance levels are 108.450 and 108.700. Financial market participants expect the Fed to decide on a key interest rate. We also recommend paying attention to the dynamics of US Treasury bond yields. Positions must be opened from key levels.

The Economic News Feed for 31.07.2019 is calm.

Indicators do not give accurate signals: the price crossed 50 MA and 100 MA.

The MACD histogram is in the negative zone, which signals bearish sentiment.

The Stochastic Oscillator is in the neutral zone, the% K line crossed the% D line. There are no signals at the moment.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 108.450, 108.250, 108.000
• Resistance levels: 108.700, 108.900, 109.250

If the price consolidates below 108.450, the quotes will fall toward 108.000.

Alternatively, the quotes can grow toward 109.000-109.200.

by JustForex

by JustForex

The US dollar does not change a lot against a basket of major currencies. The US dollar index (#DX) closed with a slight increase (+0.02%). Financial market participants expect the Fed to decide on the interest rate. Experts forecast that the regulator should reduce the range of the key interest rate for the first time since 2008. After the announcement of the decision, Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, will hold a press conference. Investors will closely monitor the official’s speech and look for signals regarding the future rate of monetary policy this year.

The US currency was under pressure due to the statements about the negotiations with China by US President, Donald Trump. As the President said, China delayed trade talks once again, which should have already begun. Trump believes that Beijing waits for the 2020 US presidential elections to make a deal with the new president and continue to “ripoff” the United States.

The British pound is still under pressure. The new British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, repeated that he would not make a deal with the EU until the condition of the backstop (a process that will help to avoid the resumption of customs control and unhindered trade on the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland) would be excluded from it. EU officials said they did not intend to resume negotiations on the Brexit deal.

Today, during the Asian trading session, optimistic data from China have been published. Thus, manufacturing PMI counted to 49.7 in July and was better than the forecasted value of 49.6. Also, the consumer price index (q/q) was published in Australia, which increased by 0.6% in the second quarter instead of 0.5%.

The bullish sentiment continues to prevail in the “black gold” market. At the moment, futures for the WTI crude oil are testing the mark of $58.25 per barrel. At 17:30 (GMT+3:00), crude oil inventories will be published in the US.

Market Indicators

Yesterday, the bearish sentiment was observed in the US stock markets: #SPY (-0.25%), #DIA (-0.08%), #QQQ (-0.43%).

The 10-year US government bonds yield is 2.05-2.06%.

– Statistics on the labor market in Germany at 10:55 (GMT+3:00);
– Consumer price index in the Eurozone at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
– Data on Eurozone GDP at 12:00 (GMT+3:00);
– ADP nonfarm employment change in the US at 15:15 (GMT+3:00);
– Report on Canada GDP at 15:30 (GMT+3:00);
– Fed interest rate decision at 21:00 (GMT+3:00).

by JustForex