By CountingPips.com
USD net speculator positions declined last week to +$37.87 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators decreased their overall net bullish positions for the US dollar last week for a fourth week and to the lowest level since December.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $37.87 billion as of Tuesday April 21st, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.81 billion from the $39.68 billion total long position that was registered on April 14th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The latest data leaves the US dollar speculative level at the lowest level since December 16th when net positions equaled $34.64 billion.
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the British pound sterling, New Zealand dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for just the euro and the Mexican Peso.
Notable Weekly Changes:
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- The euro bets dropped slightly to -214,645 net contracts after gaining the previous two weeks
- Japanese yen bets improved for a second week and maintains only a small bearish position (-14,448 contracts)
- Swiss franc bets improved slightly to remain in a small bullish position of +335 contracts
- New Zealand dollar positions gained for a sixth week and increased higher into bullish territory (+8,488 contracts)
- Mexican Peso bets dropped sharply and fell back into bearish territory after one week in bullish territory on April 14th
This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 21st and shows a quick view of how large speculators and for-profit traders (non-commercials) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below.
Weekly Charts: Large Speculators Weekly Positions vs Currency Spot Price
EuroFX:
Last Six Weeks data for EuroFX futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 449508 | 56329 | -4942 | 250103 | 7759 | 12.5 | 55.6 | -193774 | -12701 |
| 03/24/2015 | 460950 | 50148 | -6181 | 271111 | 21008 | 10.9 | 58.8 | -220963 | -27189 |
| 03/31/2015 | 459746 | 41709 | -8439 | 268269 | -2842 | 9.1 | 58.4 | -226560 | -5597 |
| 04/07/2015 | 441624 | 39444 | -2265 | 254702 | -13567 | 8.9 | 57.7 | -215258 | 11302 |
| 04/14/2015 | 453518 | 45264 | 5820 | 257611 | 2909 | 10 | 56.8 | -212347 | 2911 |
| 04/21/2015 | 457610 | 46821 | 1557 | 261466 | 3855 | 10.2 | 57.1 | -214645 | -2298 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last Six Weeks data for Pound Sterling futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 188238 | 47155 | -898 | 85006 | 4362 | 25.1 | 45.2 | -37851 | -5260 |
| 03/24/2015 | 178140 | 35938 | -11217 | 74495 | -10511 | 20.2 | 41.8 | -38557 | -706 |
| 03/31/2015 | 182514 | 35143 | -795 | 71773 | -2722 | 19.3 | 39.3 | -36630 | 1927 |
| 04/07/2015 | 185219 | 37641 | 2498 | 71942 | 169 | 20.3 | 38.8 | -34301 | 2329 |
| 04/14/2015 | 189513 | 33993 | -3648 | 70038 | -1904 | 17.9 | 37 | -36045 | -1744 |
| 04/21/2015 | 175066 | 34830 | 837 | 64111 | -5927 | 19.9 | 36.6 | -29281 | 6764 |
Japanese Yen:
Last Six Weeks data for Yen Futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 195913 | 44496 | 11598 | 92550 | 265 | 22.7 | 47.2 | -48054 | 11333 |
| 03/24/2015 | 181026 | 39156 | -5340 | 85061 | -7489 | 21.6 | 47 | -45905 | 2149 |
| 03/31/2015 | 177478 | 44409 | 5253 | 68333 | -16728 | 25 | 38.5 | -23924 | 21981 |
| 04/07/2015 | 189444 | 53320 | 8911 | 77769 | 9436 | 28.1 | 41.1 | -24449 | -525 |
| 04/14/2015 | 195230 | 54783 | 1463 | 77853 | 84 | 28.1 | 39.9 | -23070 | 1379 |
| 04/21/2015 | 189332 | 51520 | -3263 | 65968 | -11885 | 27.2 | 34.8 | -14448 | 8622 |
Swiss Franc:
Last Six Weeks data for Franc futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 38889 | 18129 | 10912 | 15894 | 297 | 46.6 | 40.9 | 2235 | 10615 |
| 03/24/2015 | 36296 | 12604 | -5525 | 16559 | 665 | 34.7 | 45.6 | -3955 | -6190 |
| 03/31/2015 | 34149 | 13679 | 1075 | 12973 | -3586 | 40.1 | 38 | 706 | 4661 |
| 04/07/2015 | 33245 | 12746 | -933 | 12626 | -347 | 38.3 | 38 | 120 | -586 |
| 04/14/2015 | 33935 | 12240 | -506 | 12070 | -556 | 36.1 | 35.6 | 170 | 50 |
| 04/21/2015 | 31727 | 11105 | -1135 | 10770 | -1300 | 35 | 33.9 | 335 | 165 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Canadian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 158576 | 21001 | -1010 | 53823 | -7218 | 13.2 | 33.9 | -32822 | 6208 |
| 03/24/2015 | 106731 | 19193 | -1808 | 51849 | -1974 | 18 | 48.6 | -32656 | 166 |
| 03/31/2015 | 110447 | 18771 | -422 | 48389 | -3460 | 17 | 43.8 | -29618 | 3038 |
| 04/07/2015 | 114881 | 22081 | 3310 | 52100 | 3711 | 19.2 | 45.4 | -30019 | -401 |
| 04/14/2015 | 118686 | 23020 | 939 | 53598 | 1498 | 19.4 | 45.2 | -30578 | -559 |
| 04/21/2015 | 126801 | 33343 | 10323 | 60394 | 6796 | 26.3 | 47.6 | -27051 | 3527 |
Australian Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for Australian dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 152746 | 63046 | 47909 | 91853 | -135 | 41.3 | 60.1 | -28807 | 48044 |
| 03/24/2015 | 135693 | 52079 | -10967 | 80447 | -11406 | 38.4 | 59.3 | -28368 | 439 |
| 03/31/2015 | 138260 | 55814 | 3735 | 80170 | -277 | 40.4 | 58 | -24356 | 4012 |
| 04/07/2015 | 159532 | 55928 | 114 | 96209 | 16039 | 35.1 | 60.3 | -40281 | -15925 |
| 04/14/2015 | 161971 | 55077 | -851 | 97510 | 1301 | 34 | 60.2 | -42433 | -2152 |
| 04/21/2015 | 153363 | 55570 | 493 | 90233 | -7277 | 36.2 | 58.8 | -34663 | 7770 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last Six Weeks data for New Zealand dollar futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 23317 | 13117 | -230 | 14258 | -1569 | 56.3 | 61.1 | -1141 | 1339 |
| 03/24/2015 | 20958 | 12149 | -968 | 13015 | -1243 | 58 | 62.1 | -866 | 275 |
| 03/31/2015 | 24049 | 16443 | 4294 | 12412 | -603 | 68.4 | 51.6 | 4031 | 4897 |
| 04/07/2015 | 24920 | 16950 | 507 | 11172 | -1240 | 68 | 44.8 | 5778 | 1747 |
| 04/14/2015 | 25176 | 17081 | 131 | 11078 | -94 | 67.8 | 44 | 6003 | 225 |
| 04/21/2015 | 26617 | 18473 | 1392 | 9985 | -1093 | 69.4 | 37.5 | 8488 | 2485 |
Mexican Peso:
Last Six Weeks data for Mexican Peso futures
| Date | Open Interest | Specs Long | Chg Specs Long | Specs Short | Chg Specs Short | Pct OI Specs Long | Pct OI Specs Short | Net Specs | Weekly Chg |
| 03/17/2015 | 135144 | 23702 | -6920 | 79641 | 13372 | 17.5 | 58.9 | -55939 | -20292 |
| 03/24/2015 | 150320 | 35044 | 11342 | 76144 | -3497 | 23.3 | 50.7 | -41100 | 14839 |
| 03/31/2015 | 157688 | 43289 | 8245 | 73578 | -2566 | 27.5 | 46.7 | -30289 | 10811 |
| 04/07/2015 | 151072 | 42185 | -1104 | 65110 | -8468 | 27.9 | 43.1 | -22925 | 7364 |
| 04/14/2015 | 130501 | 63521 | 21336 | 55160 | -9950 | 48.7 | 42.3 | 8361 | 31286 |
| 04/21/2015 | 118074 | 50343 | -13178 | 64018 | 8858 | 42.6 | 54.2 | -13675 | -22036 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
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