Dollar Gains Traction Following FOMC Announcement

October 30, 2014

Article by ForexTime

The EUR/USD has extended to fresh two-week low against the greenback as post-FOMC dollar strength continues. Stronger than expected Eurozone data failed to buoy the Euro, as interest rate differentials and a divergent path of the ECB and FOMC are driving the dollar higher.

Eurozone ESI economic confidence unexpectedly rose to 100.7 from 99.9 in the previous month. Industrial confidence rose to -5.1 from -5.5 and the services reading to 4.4 from 3.2, while consumer confidence was confirmed at -11.1. The sentiment data ties in with the stabilization in PMI readings and support the view that the Eurozone is not sliding back into recession, even if growth momentum clearly is lower than hoped.

German October jobless numbers dropped 22K, while September was revised down to 9K from 12K. The jobless rate remained steady at 6.7%. The improvement in October was better than expected and shows that the German labor market so far remains stable .

German state CPI data mostly steady in October, with Hesse, Bavaria and Brandenburg all showing annual rates unchanged from September, while Saxony reported a slight acceleration to 1.0% year over year from 0.9% year over year and NRW a deceleration to 1.0% year over year from 1.1% year over year. Data is in line with consensus forecasts for a steady pan-German headline rate.

Spanish Q3 GDP rose 0.5% quarter over quarter, in line with median forecasts and only a marginal slowdown from the 0.6% quarter over quarter reported for the second quarter. The reform efforts are having a positive effect and Spanish growth numbers have been looking very good, although so far the improvement in economic activity has had only a small effect on the labor market.


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The EUR/USD continues to move lower and the currency pair is poised to test the October lows at 1.2510. Momentum has turned negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a sell signal.  This occurs when the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the 9-day moving average of the spread.  The index moved from positive to negative territory confirming the sell signal.

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