Article by ForexTime
The Canadian dollar knee jerked higher by the trend has been lower against its neighbor to the south, as mixed Canadian economic data has taken the pressure off the Bank of Canada to increase liquidity conditions. The U.S. dollar gained traction at the end of last week following a stronger than expected jobs report, this week it was Canada’s turn to focus on payrolls.
One of the headwinds for the greenback has been the decline in yields, which have accompanied more volatile equity markets. Yields in the U.S., where on their way higher, following the stronger than expected U.S. payroll report, which showed an unemployment rate at 5.9%.
Canada employment surged 74.1k in September, beating the median estimate of a rise of 20K. The unemployment rate fell to 6.8%, undershooting expectations of a 7% rate following the 7.0% rate in August. Full time employment rose 69.3k in September after the 2.3k drop in August. Part time gained 4.8k after an 8.7k drop. The participation rate was 66.0%, matching August, and in line with expectations.
On the U.S. side of the boarder, import prices declined 0.5% in September, with export prices falling 0.2%. The data reflect the impact from weakness in commodity prices. The 0.9% drop in August import prices was revised to -0.6%, with no change to the 0.5% slip in export prices. Petroleum import prices slid another 2.0% after sliding 2.8% in August.
The decline in the commodity complex has had a negative effect on the Loonie, driving the currency pair lower as investors shy away from Canadian equity names. Given that the TSX is a commodity driven index with large oil and gas names, capital flows have moved into safe havens including the U.S. dollar.
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The USD/CAD is hovering around the 10-day moving average but momentum has faded. The MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing at the zero level. The relative strength index (RSI) is printing at 58, on the upper end of the neutral range which also reflects consolidation.
Article by ForexTime
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