Currency in ranges after volatile week

October 10, 2014

Article by ForexTime

USD/JPY and most JPY crosses traded in relatively tight ranges ahead of another Japanese long weekend. Japan is closed Monday for Sports Day though related events look to be washed out with another large typhoon headed for Tokyo. USD/JPY traded 107.65-98, holding up rather well despite soggy US yields and broad risk-off sentiment. Yesterday saw a push down to 107.53. Large option expirations again at 107.50, at 107.75, 108.00 and 108.30 helped hem in and anchor the market. Stops are eyed sub-107.50 and 107.35 however, and could figure large. Despite it being a Gotobi, importer demand was not large with demand perhaps already sated on USD/JPY moves down earlier in the week. Japanese exporters look to be sidelined for now. EUR/JPY see-sawed between 136.67-137.06 with the bias still down on weak data out of the EZ and ECB expectations. GBP/JPY did little between 173.56-98. AUD/JPY plunged from 94.70 to 94.20 on China hiking coal import tariffs before bouncing back above 94.50. NZD/JPY see-sawed between 84.55-89 in thin, choppy trading.

EUR/USD and the EUR crosses endeavored to make tracks away from lows overnight after very weak German export data and growing concerns over a deeper EZ turn-down. Most believe the ECB will have no choice but to ease further however, and EUR looks to remain capped for now. EUR/USD moved up modestly from 1.2680 to 1.2716 on short-covering before easing back. Large option expirations at 1.2600-05 and 1.2650 below and 1.2700, 1.2735-45, 1.2750 and 1.2800 above helped bracket the market. EUR/JPY bounced from 136.67 to 137.06 before also turning back down. Key support is eyed at 136.50, the low Wednesday, and then 135.65-80. EUR/GBP was slightly better bid between 0.7870-81, also hemmed in by option expirations at 0.7790-0.7800 and 0.7885-90. EUR/CHF was stuck between 1.2108-16.

GBP/USD see-sawed between 1.6116-35 in very thin Asian trading.

USD/CHF also see-sawed between 0.9528-48 in thin Asian trading.

AUD/USD opened in Asia at 0.8782 and traded down from 0.8783 early to 0.8747 on news of China hiking coal import tariffs, lower crude and commodity prices in general and flows out of Japan. A bounce was seen later. The market is in a state of flux with risk-off and the demons of ’08 back for some. In this regard, AUD/USD may remain a sell on any relief rally. Some is eyed below at 0.8725-35.


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