Technical Sentiment: Bullish Break-out

Key Takeaways

• EUR/CAD price action hints of a bullish break-out;
• Price rejected off 1.4011 after later springed higher following ECB Press Conference;
• Buyers currently aim for the first resistance area located at 1.4246.

On Thursday Euro managed to rally against a basket of currencies including USD, GBP and CAD. EUR/CAD has now formed a triple bottom and is looking to break a bearish swing configuration of Lower Highs.

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD has been trending lower all week, within certain boundaries on larger timeframes which show a large triangle pattern, until today when it briefly touched the 1.4000/10 support area for the third time. The ensuing bullish reaction has lifted price just above the resistance trendline, priced at 1.4125, indicating a strong desire from buyers to continue higher in the following trading sessions. Further confirmation will come when the pair will exceed previous lower highs at 1.4160 and 1.4180, in order to break the bearish swing configuration of Lower Highs.

Immediate resistance can be identified at 1.4246, where a large pivot zone formed throughout September is the main area of attraction. On 4H chart, the 200 Simple Moving Average will soon decline to the same level, further strengthening this pivot.  If EUR/CAD manages to move above 1.4250 as well, we could see buyers pushing for more gains toward 1.4400/40 – one of the strongest pivot areas dating back to 2013.

Strong bearish rejections starting from any of the resistance areas mentioned above could trigger a swift and volatile return from bears. For now, 1.4010 remains the main target for all bearish reversals.

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Prepared by Alex Z., Chief Currency Strategist at Capital Trust Markets