Article by ForexTime

The dollar extended gains after the release of the FOMC minutes yesterday.  The more hawkish than expected comments should be either confirmed or denied on Friday which makes Janet Yellens speech at Jackson hole all that more important.  Better than expected housing starts released earlier in the week, gave the dollar a boost allowing it to break out against the pound, despite hawkish comments from the Bank of England. Sterling wobbled following sub-forecast retail sales and an unexpected deficit in public finance figures, though Cable managed to hold above earlier four-month low at 1.6563.

U.K. public sector finances data showed unexpected deficit of GBP 0.24 billion in the ex-financial sector interventions figure. July in the previous year also produced a deficit, of GBP 1.05 billion. The average forecast had been for GBP 0.05 billion. Usually public finances for the month of July show a surplus due to tax payments.

Additionally, U.K. July retail sales came in below forecasts at 0.1% m/m and 2.6%y/y, down from respective outcomes of 0.2% and 3.4% in June. The biggest downward impact came from non-store retailing and petrol stations. Weak average income growth, which is still declining in real terms, has curtailed retail sector performance.

The GBP/USD currency pair remains under pressure from an interest rate differential that is favoring the greenback.  The next level of target support for the currency pair is seen near the March 2014 lows at 1.6465.  Momentum on the currency pair is negative with the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index printing in negative territory with a downward sloping trajectory.

The RSI (relative strength index) which is a momentum oscillator that measures overbought and oversold levels by generating an index between 1-100, is declining with price action reflecting accelerating negative momentum.  The current reading of 23.8, is well below the oversold trigger level of 30, and could foreshadow a correction in the exchange rate. Additionally, the 10-day moving average is crossing below the 200-day moving average, which shows that a short-term negative trend is in place.

Article by ForexTime

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