By GrowthAces.com

Macroeconomic overview: President Donald Trump suffered a stunning political setback on Friday in a Congress controlled by his own party when Republican leaders pulled legislation to overhaul the U.S. healthcare system, a major 2016 election campaign promise of the president and his allies.

House of Representatives leaders yanked the bill after a rebellion by Republican moderates and the party’s most conservative lawmakers left them short of votes, ensuring that Trump’s first major legislative initiative since taking office on January 20 ended in failure. Democrats were unified against it.

House Republicans had planned a vote on the measure after Trump late on Thursday cut off negotiations with Republicans who had balked at the plan and issued an ultimatum to vote on Friday, win or lose. But desperate lobbying by the White House and Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan was unable to round up the 216 votes needed for passage.

The dollar slid to a near two-month low against a basket of currencies on Monday as concerns mounted about the chances of U.S. fiscal stimulus after President Donald Trump’s failure to push through a healthcare reform bill. Trump’s inability to deliver on a major election campaign promise raised doubts whether he will be able to push through tax reforms and mega-spending packages.

William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, said delicate interest-rate hikes are necessary given the economy is stable and any further fall in unemployment could lead to an inflation run-up.

St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard on Friday said he would be “okay” with a second rate hike this year, but reiterated his view that the Fed would not need much more to keep inflation in check. Bullard argued Friday the Fed has time to wait and see if fiscal policies give a boost to productivity growth, and thus to overall economic growth, adding that revenue-neutral tax reform and deregulation were among policies that could have a positive impact.

San Francisco Fed President John Williams said on Friday that the Federal Reserve is not trying to push inflation higher to compensate for years of weak price increases, but aiming instead to ensure its 2% target is viewed credibly. He added that Fed officials’ recent statements that the U.S. central bank was willing to allow above-target price increases were intended to ensure that expectations do not slip.

Technical analysis: The EUR/USD bullish trend is continued. The rate is testing the resistance at 1.0872, December’s high. A break above this level would open the way to at least 1.0976 (50% fibo of May-January drop). An ambitious bulls’ target is 1.1125 (61.8% fibo).

Short-term signal: We have taken profit on our short-term long position. We will be looking to open another long at 1.0780.

Long-term outlook: Our long-term strategy remains intact – we stay long for 1.1125.

SILVER: Profit taken on long position

Short-term signal: We closed our long position on XAGUSD at 17.93, slightly below our initial target. Long-term outlook remains bullish and we will be looking to buy XAGUSD again on dips.

TRADING STRATEGIES SUMMARY:

FOREX – MAJOR PAIRS:

FOREX – MAJOR CROSSES:

PRECIOUS METALS:

It is usually reasonable to divide your portfolio into two parts: the core investment part and the satellite speculative part. The core part is the one you would want to make profit with in the long term thanks to the long-term trend in price changes. Such an approach is a clear investment as you are bound to keep your position opened for a considerable amount of time in order to realize the profit. The speculative part is quite the contrary. You would open a speculative position with short-term gains in your mind and with the awareness that even though potentially more profitable than investments, speculation is also way more risky. In typical circumstances investments should account for 60-90% of your portfolio, the rest being speculative positions. This way, you may enjoy a possibly higher rate of return than in the case of putting all of your money into investment positions and at the same time you may not have to be afraid of severe losses in the short-term.

How to read these tables?

1. Support/Resistance – three closest important support/resistance levels
2. Position/Trading Idea:
BUY/SELL – It means we are looking to open LONG/SHORT position at the Entry Price. If the order is filled we will set the suggested Target and Stop-loss level.
LONG/SHORT – It means we have already taken this position at the Entry Price and expect the rate to go up/down to the Target level.
3. Stop-Loss/Profit Locked In – Sometimes we move the stop-loss level above (in case of LONG) or below (in case of SHORT) the Entry price. This means that we have locked in profit on this position.
4. Risk Factor – green “*” means high level of confidence (low level of uncertainty), grey “**” means medium level of confidence, red “***” means low level of confidence (high level of uncertainty)
5. Position Size (forex)– position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in mini lots. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size). You should always round the result down. For example, if the result was 2.671, your position size should be 2 mini lots. This would be a great tool for your risk management!
Position size (precious metals) – position size suggested for a USD 10,000 trading account in units. You can calculate your position size as follows: (your account size in USD / USD 10,000) * (our position size).
6. Profit/Loss on recently closed position (forex) – is the amount of pips we have earned/lost on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.
Profit/Loss on recently closed position (precious metals) – is profit/loss we have earned/lost per unit on recently closed position. The amount in USD is calculated on the assumption of suggested position size for USD 10,000 trading account.
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By GrowthAces.com – Daily Forex Trading Strategies