ROBUSTA Analysis: Drought may damage coffee crops

By IFCMarkets

Drought may damage coffee crops

Somar Meteorologia agency reported the rainfall in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais last week was only 57% of its historical average. This state is the main producer of arabica coffee. The emerging strengthening of the Brazilian real against the United States dollar may further contribute to a possible increase in coffee prices. The Vietnamese National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting reported rainfall in Central Highlands, the country’s main region for growing Robusta coffee, has 30% less rainfall than normal. Despite the pandemic of coronavirus, coffee exports from Vietnam in January-April 2020 increased by 4.5%. American marketing company IRI reported arabica coffee sales in the US in April fell by 20%. It can be assumed that amid rising unemployment due to quarantine caused by Covid-19, part of consumer demand “flows” from one sort of coffee to another. 1 ton of arabica now costs $ 2,350, while Robusta – $ 1,190, which is much cheaper. Note also that $ 1100 is the minimum for Robusta since it began being traded in 2009.

Summary of technical analysis

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