September 28th – By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators slightly increased their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 41,939 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 24th. This was a weekly uptick of 165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,774 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 687 contracts (to a weekly total of 50,313 contracts) which just eclipsed the gross bearish position (shorts) which rose by 522 contracts on the week (to a total of 8,374 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators advanced their bullish bets for a fifth straight week and for the eleventh time out of the past thirteen weeks. The gain this week brings the current bullish standing to the most bullish level since April 25th of 2017, a span of one hundred and twenty-six weeks.

Individual Currencies Data this week: New Zealand dollar at record bearish position

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw three substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week and one new record position.

Japanese yen bullish positions dropped sharply this week by over -11,000 contracts. This was a second straight weekly decline and the third in the past four weeks. Yen bets had recently crossed over from net bearish to bullish on August 6th and reached a 2019 high of +33,607 contracts on August 27th before trending lower.

Canadian dollar bullish positions fell by over -15,000 contracts this week after a couple of gaining weeks. The CAD position remains in bullish territory overall but is now at the least bullish level since July 2nd which was the first time bets had turned bullish after sixty-six straight weeks in bearish territory.

Mexican peso bets rebounded this week after a sharp decline last week by over -14,000 contracts. Peso positions have been shedding bullish bets in recent weeks and months with weekly positions falling in nine out of the past fourteen weeks. The current bullish level is now under the +100,000 contract level for the fifth straight week following a streak of twenty-three consecutive weeks above this level (peso bets hit a record high on April 16th at +156,030 contracts).

New Zealand dollar bets hit a new record high bearish level this week after setting a previous record last week as well. The rise in bearish bets has accelerated in the past few months as bearish positions have gained in seven out of the past nine weeks and by a total of -27,373 contracts over that span of time. Overall, NZD positions have now been in bearish territory for twenty-eight straight weeks dating back to March 19th.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (165 weekly change in contracts), euro (7,837 contracts), British pound sterling (5,329 contracts) and the Mexican peso (10,788 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the Japanese yen (-11,079 weekly change in contracts), Swiss franc (-5,996 contracts), Canadian dollar (-15,231 contracts), Australian dollar (-7,073 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (-3,555 contracts).

Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

See the table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -60,722 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 7,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -68,559 net contracts.

British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level recorded a net position of -80,795 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lift of 5,329 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,124 net contracts.

Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators recorded a net position of 12,783 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly lowering of -11,079 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,862 net contracts.

Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week reached a net position of -10,552 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,996 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,556 net contracts.

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators reached a net position of 4,592 contracts this week. This was a decrease of -15,231 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,823 net contracts.

Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of -47,155 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -7,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -40,082 net contracts.

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of -39,598 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly decrease of -3,555 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -36,043 net contracts.

Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators equaled a net position of 92,414 contracts this week. This was a weekly boost of 10,788 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 81,626 net contracts.

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).