Gold consolidating at 6-year highs – Today’s ISM’s a next bullish trigger?

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events July 1, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

In several of our recent technical pieces, we saw Gold push with serious bullish potential if the multi-year-resistance zone around 1,360/365 USD, initially triggered by the US Federal bank on June 19.

And we weren’t disappointed.

Over the last few days, the precious metal took on serious momentum and hit a first potential target on the upside around 1,440 USD, a potential stop-over up to the long-term target at 1,700 USD.

After Fed chief Bullard mentioned in a Bloomberg interview last Tuesday, that a 50bp rate cut in July would be overdone, Gold started to consolidate but stabilised above 1,400 USD.

Also technically, a corrective move seemed likely with the RSI(14) on a daily-time-frame hitting its highest level since February 2016.

That said, today’s ISM Manufacturing data is very interesting, and should be carefully watched by traders: a data set coming in better than expected could trigger a deeper correction, even though we still consider a dip as low as 1,360/365 very optimistic in the days to come.

On the other hand, and based on our experience, we know Gold tends to be quite trend-stable and even if the mode looks quite extended, Gold could continue to trade even higher without looking back.

This seems especially true if the incoming US data continues to disappoint in the days to come. That said, further gains up to 1,480/490 USD, a high from May 2013, are a serious option, too:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between March 19, 2018, to June 28, 2019). Accessed: June 28, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of Gold fell by 1.7%, in 2015, it fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 6.4%.

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