USD/JPY positive on Mnuchin’s trade deal comment – sell the bounce?

By Admiral Markets

Source: Economic Events June 28, 2019 – Admiral Markets’ Forex Calendar

As we go into the weekly close, we want to have a look at a currently very interesting currency pair: USD/JPY. The excitement results mainly out of the upcoming G20 summit where market participants hope to get clear signs in regards to a potential between the US and China.

On Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said a US-China trade deal is 90% complete…

Unfortunately, this is not shocking news, and was announced in a very similar way in April. We all know that shortly after the negotiations between the USA and China collapsed shortly after with US president Trump announcing a new round of tariffs on Chinese goods and putting Huawei on a blacklist.

That said, the initial bullish reaction in USD/JPY back towards and slightly above 108.00 on Wednesday/Thursday may be short-lived with the currency pair finding a potential short-trigger around 107.80/108.00 and taking on bearish momentum again.

If, over the weekend and during the G20 summit in Osaka/Japan, it appears that still no deal between the USA and China is coming, the path down to the Flash Crash lows from January around 105.00 seems levelled.

Technically this bearish outlook stays true as long as we trade below 108.70/109.00 on a daily time frame:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between March 29, 2018, to June 27, 2019). Accessed: June 27, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT – Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

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