Sept 1, 2018 – By CountingPips.com – Get our weekly COT Reports by Email
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large currency speculators continued to increase their bets in favor of the US Dollar Index this week and bet against the euro and British pound sterling.
The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 34,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday August 28th. This was a weekly lift of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,122 net contracts.
The speculative position in the Dollar Index futures has improved for nineteen consecutive weeks to the highest overall bullish standing since May 9th of 2017 when the net position totaled 35,749 contracts (a span of 69 weeks).
An aggregate measure of the US dollar position – the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc – showed that currency speculators slightly edged their overall bets lower to $23.34 billion as of Tuesday August 28th, according to data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly decline of $-0.33 billion from the $23.67 billion total position that was registered the previous week, according to the Reuters calculation.
The USD aggregate position dipped this week following three straight weeks of gains and fell for just the second time in the past eleven weeks. The current standing is above the +$20 billion level for a sixth consecutive week.
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Overall, in the individual currency contracts this week, the non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, bet in favor of the US Dollar Index (449 weekly change in contracts), Japanese yen (1,365 contracts), Swiss franc (2,474 contracts), Canadian dollar (2,232 contracts), Australian dollar (5,574 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (1,216 contracts).
The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week versus the dollar were the euro (-2,378 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-4,590 contracts), and the Mexican peso (-6,333 contracts).
See the table and individual currency charts below.
Table of Weekly Commercial Traders and Speculators Levels & Changes:
| Currency | Net Commercials | Comms Weekly Chg | Net Speculators | Specs Weekly Chg |
| EuroFx | -13,574 | -9,823 | -7,219 | -2,378 |
| GBP | 96,958 | -319 | -76,928 | -4,590 |
| JPY | 68,573 | -127 | -46,041 | 1,365 |
| CHF | 58,219 | -3,959 | -44,744 | 2,474 |
| CAD | 25,410 | -1,382 | -24,789 | 2,232 |
| AUD | 66,207 | -9,986 | -44,633 | 5,574 |
| NZD | 28,161 | -1,815 | -23,927 | 1,216 |
| MXN | -22,952 | 7,104 | 19,337 | -6,333 |
This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Euro bets dropped for a third week and further into bearish territory. Euro speculator positions are at their worst position since April of 2017
British pound sterling bets fell for a sixth straight week. The overall speculative position is at the most bearish level since May 2nd 2017 when net positions totaled -81,364 contracts
Japanese yen bearish bets declined for a fifth straight week. Current spec positions are at the least bearish level since July 10th
Swiss franc speculator bets rebounded a bit this week by +2,474 contracts. The overall bearish standing remains above the -40,000 net contract level for a ninth straight week
Canadian dollar speculator bets rose this week after falling for two weeks in a row. The overall net position, however, has remained above the -20,000 contract level for ten straight weeks and has now been in bearish territory for the past twenty-three weeks
Australian dollar bets improved for a third straight week this week although remain strongly bearish. The overall bearish speculator position fell below the -50,000 contract level for the first time in five weeks
New Zealand dollar bearish speculator positions fell for a second straight week this week. The current position has remained above the -20,000 net contract level for the past nine weeks and continues to hang around the most bearish level on record (-26,693 contracts)
Mexican peso speculator positions dropped for a third straight week this week. Despite the declines, the peso continues to remain in bullish speculative territory and is the only non-dollar currency with bullish net contracts
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
Article by CountingPips.com
