US dollar retraces ahead of Fed meeting

November 1, 2016

By IFCMarkets

US dollar index is correcting ahead of Fed meeting

US stocks were almost flat on Monday. US dollar index edged up while stock indices slightly fell. Investors expect the next Fed meeting on Wednesday. At the end of last week Fed renewed investigation into the email of candidate for presidency Hillary Clinton. She is thought to have violated the rules of email usage while being the Secretary of State in US in 2009-2015. The strong economic data on personal income and spending for September came out on Monday. Markets paid little attention to them but US stocks indices slightly advanced on Tuesday. According to consensus-forecast based on already published reports, the total earnings of S&P 500 are to have risen 3.1% in Q3 2016. This is far above their expected fall by 0.5% on October 1. Today at 15:00 CET the positive September ISM manufacturing data came out while October construction spending came out negative.

 

European banks released weak data

Weak UniCredit, Natixis and Royal Bank of Scotland corporate earnings came out on Monday which pushed European indices lower. The trend continued on Tuesday amid weaker corporate earnings from BP (-3.1%) and Standard Chartered bank (-6.8%). No significant economic data came out in Europe at the beginning of the week except for unexpected fall in retail sales in September in Germany. Not many economic indicators will come out in Eurozone this week but several reports will be released: the report of European commission on Wednesday and ECB bulletin on Thursday.

 

Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged

BoJ meeting took place on Tuesday. The bank left monetary policy unchanged in line with expectations, the rate remained at -0.1%. Bank of Japan slightly extended the period for reaching the target inflation of 2% to year 2018. In fact, BoJ admitted inflation cannot reach the target level till term limit of Bank Chair Haruhiko Kuroda. Nikkei index advanced. Yen weakened slightly. Economic data were neutral early this week in Japan. Strong housing market data and construction spending came out on Monday. Vehicle sales as on November 1 and manufacturing PMI fell in Japan on Tuesday. On Wednesday morning the consumer confidence index for October will come out in Japan, outlook is negative.

Strong economic data came out today in China. Higher manufacturing PMI for October surpassed expectations. It reached the level of 51.2 points which had a positive impact on several commodity futures.

Rice and corn prices edged lower on news from Ministry of Agriculture on Indonesia. It reported that rice production in 2016 may rise in country to 79.14mln tonnes from 75.4mln tonnes in 2015. Corn crops may reach 23.16mln tonnes from 19.61mln tonnes a year earlier. Last week International Grain Council (IGC) raised forecast for global corn crops in season 2016/17 to 1.035bn tonnes, wheat to 748mln tonnes and soy to 332mln tonnes. Corn and wheat production may hit fresh historical highs so grains stockpiles may reach 7-year high, according to IGC. Grain stockpiles in China may surpass 200mln tonnes for the first time in recent 17 years.


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