Factors That Affect the Foreign Exchange Market

November 9, 2016

The Forex market is one of the most important markets in the world. Trillions of dollars are traded on a daily basis here. However, some factors are very important in the Forex markets. We are going to take a close look at these factors right away. So read on to find out more about these factors affecting the Forex markets on a daily basis.

Factors That Affect the Forex Market

Differentials in Inflation and Interest Rates

A country with lower inflation rate will have rising currency values over time. The purchasing power of this particular country will increase relative to the currency of another country, for instance. Countries with low inflation rates include the United States, Japan, and Germany. A country with higher inflation will get a depreciation in its currency relative to the currency of any of its trading partners out there. This situation commonly means higher interest rates for the country with higher inflation.

The differential in the field of interest rates is also important. It means that a change in interest rates will impact both currency values and inflation down the road. The central bank can also manipulate interest rates. This mechanism will exert an important influence over both exchange rates and inflation. Lenders will get a higher ROI when they operate in high-interest-rate countries. This will attract foreign capital to a country with high-interest rates, which will cause the rise of interest rates down the road. The impact that interest rates can produce in a currency can mitigate if its rate is much higher than in many other countries.

Current-account Deficits and Public Debt

A country`s current account deficit is a situation that happens when a country spends more money on the foreign trade than the money it is earning. This causes a country to borrow foreign capital just to make up for its deficit. A nation with a big public debt tends to be less attractive to any foreign investor out there. Since debt encourages inflation, this will generate cheaper real dollars for investors in the future. If the government wants to print money, they will generate even more inflation down the road as well.


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If the government prints money, this will increase the money supply. Inflation will be caused by this action of the government. If the government cannot sell domestic bonds, it will have to sell foreign bonds. A large debt might make investors think that a particular country has a high risk of default. The debt rating of a country is an important determinant of that country`s exchange rate as well.

Terms of Trade

If a country exports more than it imports, it means that the country will have an increase in the value of its currency. This happens because more people will be interested in the currency of that particular country, which will cause the currency to raise. Economic performance and political stability are two other factors that affect the Forex markets. If a country has strong economic performance, and it will attract more investors down the road.

Investors need political stability in the countries where they want to invest. If a country does not have political stability, investors will move their capital away from that country to other countries that are perceived as more stable. Capital markets also affect the Forex market a lot. You have a lot of information about the movements of governments, corporations, and institutions around the world.

Capital Markets

If you see a sell-off rally for a particular country in its bond or stock market, it means that investors are changing their minds about the behavior of that particular stock or bond market. Both Forex and commodity traders rely on economic data, as they use it to trade on a regular basis. Any movement in Treasuries will have a high impact on currency movements. It means that a change in yields will greatly affect any value that a currency might have in the future. if you want to excel as a Forex trader, you have to understand how bonds are valued.

Remember that the political landscape of a country is very important in the world of Forex trading. That’s the reason why currency traders forever looking at the news so they can gauge what the movements of the political elite will be in terms of government action. Forex traders will want to know more about government restrictions on a particular industry or an increase in spending. Forex traders will also take a look at upcoming elections, and they will favor parties with plans of economic growth and responsible platforms. The Bretix is an example of political uncertainty surrounding a government.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Forex traders will also take a close look at both fiscal and monetary policies of a government, as these two actions have an important impact on foreign markets. The decisions of the central bank are closely watched by Forex traders, as these traders need to know more about future outlooks and key rates. Economic releases are also important. A Forex trader will take a close look at any major economic report out there, as these reports are their backbones. A Forex trader will use an important economic report calendar.

An economic report calendar will allow any trader to stay current on any news that happens out there related to the economy in an ultra-fast paced marketplace. GDP is the most important indicator of a country`s economic performance, and Forex traders will be watching closely this economic indicator at all times as well. Forex traders also understand that GDP is also a lagging indicator. It means that this economic indicator reports only on trends and events that have already happened. Inflation is also an important economic indicator, as it deals with falling purchasing power and rising price level.

As you can see, Forex traders have to take into consideration tons of important factors that determine the price of currencies on a regular basis. Interest rates and political stability are also important factors that every Forex trader has to take into consideration on a daily basis. Remember that political news and events are also very important in the Forex markets as well.

About the Author:

Umar Ajier is a creative writer with a strong background in financial analyst.