By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to decrease their aggregate futures positions in the US dollar last week for a fifth straight week. Meanwhile, in individual currency positions, speculator contracts for the euro and Mexican peso rose the most last week while British pound sterling positions fell for a 3rd week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an aggregate US dollar long position totaling $2.15 billion as of Tuesday April 5th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$2.5 billion from the $4.65 billion total long position that was registered on March 29th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
The US dollar speculative position now sits at its lowest level since May 6th 2014 when total positions equaled -$2.03 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the euro (+10,324 contracts) and the Mexican peso (+8,918 contracts). Euro positions have now improved for three consecutive weeks and are at their best (or least bearish) level since February 23rd. The Mexican peso speculative positions, meanwhile, gained for a second week and are now at their least bearish level since December of 2015.
Free Reports:
Canadian dollar positions (+6,277 change in weekly contracts) improved for a tenth straight week and now have a small net bullish position for the first time in almost a year.
Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning gains were the Japanese yen (+5,686 contracts), Australian dollar (+3,379 contracts), Swiss franc (+1,002 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (+1,029 contracts).
The only currency whose speculative net positions declined last week was the British pound sterling (-6,478 change in weekly contracts) which dropped for a third week in a row.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday April 5th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) and small speculators were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will fall versus the dollar.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | 86498 | 32971 | -68541 | -21684 |
| 20160308 | 89999 | 3501 | -71907 | -3366 |
| 20160315 | 87813 | -2186 | -77555 | -5648 |
| 20160322 | 73024 | -14789 | -66053 | 11502 |
| 20160329 | 67351 | -5673 | -63811 | 2242 |
| 20160405 | 59737 | -7614 | -53487 | 10324 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | 62384 | 9596 | -39378 | -6310 |
| 20160308 | 72682 | 10298 | -49005 | -9627 |
| 20160315 | 38929 | -33753 | -13619 | 35386 |
| 20160322 | 59790 | 20861 | -37723 | -24104 |
| 20160329 | 60506 | 716 | -40028 | -2305 |
| 20160405 | 70900 | 10394 | -46506 | -6478 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | -58622 | -1380 | 59625 | 6891 |
| 20160308 | -65310 | -6688 | 64333 | 4708 |
| 20160315 | -46976 | 18334 | 45489 | -18844 |
| 20160322 | -57511 | -10535 | 53346 | 7857 |
| 20160329 | -59963 | -2452 | 54387 | 1041 |
| 20160405 | -69057 | -9094 | 60073 | 5686 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | 14501 | 627 | -1507 | 814 |
| 20160308 | 13520 | -981 | -129 | 1378 |
| 20160315 | 6816 | -6704 | 5262 | 5391 |
| 20160322 | 5021 | -1795 | 4186 | -1076 |
| 20160329 | 3151 | -1870 | 4647 | 461 |
| 20160405 | -2077 | -5228 | 5649 | 1002 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | 37575 | -5926 | -30478 | 6462 |
| 20160308 | 27220 | -10355 | -25781 | 4697 |
| 20160315 | 17153 | -10067 | -16826 | 8955 |
| 20160322 | 9659 | -7494 | -15009 | 1817 |
| 20160329 | 3659 | -6000 | -6180 | 8829 |
| 20160405 | -6488 | -10147 | 97 | 6277 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | -10617 | -6024 | 16861 | 7286 |
| 20160308 | -33359 | -22742 | 29195 | 12334 |
| 20160315 | -22868 | 10491 | 12782 | -16413 |
| 20160322 | -31481 | -8613 | 18030 | 5248 |
| 20160329 | -35765 | -4284 | 23466 | 5436 |
| 20160405 | -37235 | -1470 | 26845 | 3379 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | 5886 | -1709 | -4157 | 2458 |
| 20160308 | 2225 | -3661 | -2000 | 2157 |
| 20160315 | 285 | -1940 | 1290 | 3290 |
| 20160322 | -1453 | -1738 | 1017 | -273 |
| 20160329 | -1657 | -204 | 1874 | 857 |
| 20160405 | -2793 | -1136 | 2903 | 1029 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160301 | 59837 | 2519 | -56473 | -3614 |
| 20160308 | 60689 | 852 | -57554 | -1081 |
| 20160315 | 46985 | -13704 | -45037 | 12517 |
| 20160322 | 45991 | -994 | -45696 | -659 |
| 20160329 | 41861 | -4130 | -40796 | 4900 |
| 20160405 | 33303 | -8558 | -31878 | 8918 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com
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