By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators raised bets in favor of the euro and the Japanese yen last week while sharply betting against the British pound sterling.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, increased their positions for the euro, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar while decreasing their weekly bets for the British pound sterling, Swiss franc, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican Peso.
This latest COT data is through Tuesday March 22nd and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) and small speculators were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Last week’s data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the euro (+11,502 change in weekly contracts) and the Japanese yen (+7,857 contracts). Both currencies, despite recent easing by both of their respective central banks, have steadily regained their footing in 2016 after deep losses and negative sentiment in 2015. Speculators have established an overall long position in the yen in 2016 (see charts below) for the first time in roughly four years while speculators still hold an overall short position in the euro, although it is much improved from the lowest levels of 2015.
Other currencies last week showing some speculative positioning gains were the Canadian dollar (+1,817 contracts) and the Australian dollar (+5,248 contracts).
Free Reports:
The largest negative mover was the British pound sterling (-24,104 change in weekly contracts) as Brexit fears (Britain leaving the European Union) have remained a drag on the currency. Rounding out the currencies with speculative declines were the Swiss franc (-1,076 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-273 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-659 contracts).
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | 53764 | -20260 | -48205 | 15109 |
| 20160223 | 53527 | -237 | -46857 | 1348 |
| 20160301 | 86498 | 32971 | -68541 | -21684 |
| 20160308 | 89999 | 3501 | -71907 | -3366 |
| 20160315 | 87813 | -2186 | -77555 | -5648 |
| 20160322 | 73024 | -14789 | -66053 | 11502 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | 57559 | 2850 | -36255 | 45 |
| 20160223 | 52788 | -4771 | -33068 | 3187 |
| 20160301 | 62384 | 9596 | -39378 | -6310 |
| 20160308 | 72682 | 10298 | -49005 | -9627 |
| 20160315 | 38929 | -33753 | -13619 | 35386 |
| 20160322 | 59790 | 20861 | -37723 | -24104 |
Japanese Yen:
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | -51459 | -10658 | 47901 | 4669 |
| 20160223 | -57242 | -5783 | 52734 | 4833 |
| 20160301 | -58622 | -1380 | 59625 | 6891 |
| 20160308 | -65310 | -6688 | 64333 | 4708 |
| 20160315 | -46976 | 18334 | 45489 | -18844 |
| 20160322 | -57511 | -10535 | 53346 | 7857 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | 12058 | -5788 | -4366 | 2902 |
| 20160223 | 13874 | 1816 | -2321 | 2045 |
| 20160301 | 14501 | 627 | -1507 | 814 |
| 20160308 | 13520 | -981 | -129 | 1378 |
| 20160315 | 6816 | -6704 | 5262 | 5391 |
| 20160322 | 5021 | -1795 | 4186 | -1076 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | 52387 | -7251 | -45085 | 6850 |
| 20160223 | 43501 | -8886 | -36940 | 8145 |
| 20160301 | 37575 | -5926 | -30478 | 6462 |
| 20160308 | 27220 | -10355 | -25781 | 4697 |
| 20160315 | 17153 | -10067 | -16826 | 8955 |
| 20160322 | 9659 | -7494 | -15009 | 1817 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | 5308 | -9171 | 2807 | 8433 |
| 20160223 | -4593 | -9901 | 9575 | 6768 |
| 20160301 | -10617 | -6024 | 16861 | 7286 |
| 20160308 | -33359 | -22742 | 29195 | 12334 |
| 20160315 | -22868 | 10491 | 12782 | -16413 |
| 20160322 | -31481 | -8613 | 18030 | 5248 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | 9866 | -133 | -8317 | 822 |
| 20160223 | 7595 | -2271 | -6615 | 1702 |
| 20160301 | 5886 | -1709 | -4157 | 2458 |
| 20160308 | 2225 | -3661 | -2000 | 2157 |
| 20160315 | 285 | -1940 | 1290 | 3290 |
| 20160322 | -1453 | -1738 | 1017 | -273 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20160216 | 82595 | 31392 | -77385 | -30863 |
| 20160223 | 57318 | -25277 | -52859 | 24526 |
| 20160301 | 59837 | 2519 | -56473 | -3614 |
| 20160308 | 60689 | 852 | -57554 | -1081 |
| 20160315 | 46985 | -13704 | -45037 | 12517 |
| 20160322 | 45991 | -994 | -45696 | -659 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Article by CountingPips.com
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