Article by ForexTime
Sterling moved lower following the UK jobs data losses, with the market initially reacting to the dip in pay growth, which is a key metric that the BoE is monitoring, while overlooking the unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to a new cycle low of 5.2%. Traders are now pushing out the date where the BoE could raise rates in 2016, which is allowing the yield differential between the U.S. and the U.K. to move further in favor of the U.S. The 2-year yield differential dipped to 36, which is the lowest seen in the past 10-years, which should continue to drive investors into the greenback.
Cable printed a low of 1.4987 in the immediate wake of the data release, since settling back to the 1.5010 area. The pound is trading firmer against the euro over the same period, though this reflects a broader decline in the euro. Markets are consolidating ahead of the Fed’s decision, which is scheduled for 2 PM ET.
The Fed is widely expected to increase interest rates by 25 basis points for the first in 9-years. The key will be to determine the pace of further increases which is likely to be gradual. Support on the GBP/USD seen near the December lows at 1.4893, while resistance is seen at the 10-day moving average at 1.5104, and then the December highs at 1.5240. Momentum on the currency pair is negative as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a sell signal. This occurs as the spread (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses below the 9-day moving average of the spread. The index moved from negative to positive territory confirming the sell signal.
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